Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 291037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
437 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 437 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

High pressure remains over the Southwest US today and then begins
to shift eastward on Saturday. Mid to high level clouds will
increase on Saturday with increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms due to an approaching vort max from the west.
Temperatures will remain above normal over the next 48 hours, and
will gradually decrease as moisture increases over the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 437 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

The pattern change remains the same in the latest models adding
forecast confidence. Timing may be a bit faster than previous
runs. Over the weekend and into next week, upper Lows track across
the northern tier of states. This flattens the Subtropical Ridge
and nudges it east. This allows marginal monsoonal moisture to
push back north of the Four Corners beginning Saturday evening. A
disturbance on Saturday night and into Sunday will likely keep
some nocturnal showers and thunderstorms going through the
overnight hours.

The GFS has precipitable water values approaching one inch in the
southern valleys through Monday, decreasing to around 0.75 inch in
the north.

Beginning Tuesday, strengthening SW flow will bring deeper
moisture into the region. The south could see precipitable water
climb to around 1.25 inches which would raise flash flood
concerns. Mid-range models indicate a trough possible passing
through eastern Utah and western Colorado on Wednesday afternoon.
Will keep an eye on for run to run consistency on this feature.

Temperatures drop through the new week returning to near normal by
Wednesday. Rising dewpoints will make for muggy conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 437 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Iso thunderstorms are possible over higher terrain
from 17z to 06z today and may generate gusty and erratic wind
gusts. Clouds are expected to increase over the Four Corners by
12z Saturday morning.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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