Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 050514
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1114 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A THICK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE CO AND UT BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH SW AND CENTRAL CO
BETWEEN 11 PM AND ABOUT 3 AM. HAVE INCREASED POPS...CLOUDS...AND
QPF TO SHOW THIS LINE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AN UNSETTLED MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

THIS AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT...THE MORNING MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO NOT
RESOLVE ORGANIZED FORCING. JET SUPPORT REMAINS STRETCHED SW-NE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE NEAR ONE INCH
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. STORM MOTION IS BRISK...TO THE NE AT
25KTS. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH THE NAM AND GFS TOO WET FOR THIS EVENING. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN UINTAS. THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

IF TODAY IS ANY INDICATION OF HOW TOMORROW WILL BE...THEN SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE. MODELS
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LAST FEW DAYS WITH BOTH
NAM AND GFS PAINTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WHICH JUST HASN`T
BEEN PANNING OUT. EVEN WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THERE`S
NOT BEEN ANY REAL GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER TO GET STRONG CONVECTION
GOING. FOR SATURDAY...GFS SHOWING ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WHILE NAM HAS REALLY PULLED BACK. FORECAST FOLLOWS NAM SO DROPPED
POPS GOOD AMT. THAT`S NOT TO SAY WE WON`T SEE ANY PRECIP...WE
WILL...SOME AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS. EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY. OF COURSE...HAVING SAID THAT CHANCE HAS NOW
INCREASED FOR TOMORROW TO BE VERY ACTIVE DAY. STAY TUNED. AS FAR
AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A FEW DAYS OF NICE WEATHER ON TAP AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH AND
THE ASSOD TROUGH FORCES THE MOISTURE STREAM TO OUR EAST. A FEW
GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY POPUP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
MORE SO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT THEY WILL BE VERY FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN FAVORING THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUN WITH SOME CU BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SKIES BEING PREDOMINANT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL SEE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH KICKING OFF
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS. MEAN FLOW REMAINS
FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST KEEPING TEMPS SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST UNTIL ABOUT 09Z. KGJT...KRIL...KEGE...
KMTJ...AND KTEX WILL BE AFFECTED BY STORMS WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF CONDITIONS BELOW ILS CUTOFFS AND WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 40 MPH.
EACH OF THESE SITES HAS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS UNTIL ABOUT 09Z.

FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
TO THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL THINGS QUIET DOWN LATE
TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...CC


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