330
FXUS63 KGLD 240519
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1019 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog possible tonight and Monday morning.

- Breezy to strong NNW winds may develop in the wake of a cold
  frontal passage Tuesday morning. Present indications suggest
  sustained winds ~25-35 mph with gusts in the 40-50 mph range.

- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.

- An Arctic cold front will bring much colder temperatures to
  the region this weekend and early next week.

- Snow possible this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1216 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today, breezy conditions with winds gusting 20-35 mph are
currently forecast as the trough approaches. Rain chances will
increase through the afternoon as an arc of showers moves
southwest to northeast through the area with a developing low.
Some isolated rumbles of thunder may be possible across
southeastern portions of the area where dew points will be
higher leading to some minimal amounts of MUCAPE. Continue to
have concerns on if the arc of showers and embedded storms will
be more broken to scattered due to drier air continue to be seen
in the 850-750mb level and even some subsidence in the low
levels. This is what is continuing to temper expectations with
pops. The 12Z NAMNEST actually supports this along with the 12Z
RRFS versus the HRRR which has a more organized arc of rainfall.
Gusty winds may occur with the showers or virga with some
sporadic gusts of 35-45 mph. Light rain may then continue to
linger through the evening hours and overnight as cyclogenesis
occurs but with the current forecast track it may be a bit
spotty due to dry slotting. Due to the moist low levels will
need to keep an eye on patchy fog potential where rain is not
ongoing. At this time do not see a reason to change the fog
forecast that was inherited from the prior shift. Some of the
fog could be dense due high difference values of surface to 1km
mixing ratios. Rain is forecast to continue through the morning
hours on Monday as the back end of the low moves through the
area. Dew points remaining in the mid to upper 30s should help
keep the precipitation all rain but if some cooling can occur
then some spotty snowflakes could occur across the higher
elevations of Yuma and Kit Carson county due to wet bulbing.

Monday, light showers and/or drizzle may continue through the
day before ending west to east starting during the mid to late
morning hours as small amount so omega remain in the low levels
according to the 15Z RAP13 as high temperatures are forecast to
remain in the 50s across the area. Lingering fog may also still
continue but similar to the rain potential would end west to
east throughout the day as drier air moves in. Have extended the
duration of the fog through the mid afternoon for eastern
portions of the area due to a deep saturated layer in the low
levels according to 15Z RAP13 soundings. High temperatures for
the day remain forecast in the low to mid 50s.

Monday night and into Tuesday a cold front is forecast to move
through the area leading to an increase in winds. GFS and the
ECWMF AIFS are nearly similar on the frontal passage occurring
between 09 and 12Z so have trended Max T for the day a little
lower as the high temperature for the day may actually end up
occurring before sunrise as cold air advection is forecast to
continue to stream into the area. Did nudge temperatures down
some since the colder air is normally more shallow than what
guidance suggests, with this thinking during the daytime hours
temperatures may struggle to remain higher than the low 40s.
Breezy to gusty winds remain forecast through the due to the
proximity of the system over the northern Plains which is what
is moving the cold front through the area. Wind gusts of
35-isolated 50 mph are forecast to occur as the 850mb wind field
increases due to response of the system.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Starting the extended period mid week, including for the
Thanksgiving holiday at this time does look to be more tranquil
as well with ridging over the western CONUS resulting in
northwesterly flow for the area. If the ridge can amplify more
then temperatures may need to be warmed up a few degrees but
with the amplitude of the ridge currently near normal to
slightly below normal temperatures are currently forecast with
the cooler air mass due to the front on Tuesday remaining in
place. In fact there are some GEFS members that keeps colder air
in place which would end up resulting in cooler than forecasted
temperatures for Thanksgiving.

The pattern then begins to turn more active starting as soon as
Friday night into Saturday. Guidance has begun trending towards
a weak shortwave moving off of the Rockies and into the area
interacting with a weak surface low across SW Kansas. These two
features may create enough lift to support light rain or snow
across portions of the forecast area. The timing of the eastward
movement of this low is what will dictate the speed of the
colder air filtering into the area this weekend. Guidance has
trended more towards a Saturday frontal passage. But with the
coldest air towards the start of the new work week. Snowfall
does appear to be possible late weekend and into the start of
the new work week but will be heavily dependent on the track of
troughing ejecting onto the Plains. If the trough can stay
further south then that would eliminate any precipitation
potential. The potential for low temperatures below 10 degrees
has increased since the previous shift now looking to be 40-60%
chance and 10-30% chance of below zero temperatures as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1004 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

For KGLD... Ceilings around 200-400ft and visibility between 1/4
and 2SM are forecast through 15Z as low level moisture has
moved in over the terminal. There is a chance that conditions
may briefly improve as some rain showers are trying to form
southwest of the terminal in the wrap around portion of the low.
If the showers move over, they could improve visibility to
around 4-7SM and lift ceilings to around 500-1000ft. Otherwise,
conditions are not forecast to improve until around 15Z as very
slow daytime heating begins to dissipate the fog, and then lift
and break apart the cloud cover. Conditions are forecast to be
VFR around 21-00Z as the low shifts east. From then, the next
concern will be increasing winds with a front that could provide
low level wind shear. However, this is currently forecast to
occur after 06Z Tuesday.

For KMCK... Ceilings are forecast to lower slowly through the
first few hours of the period as more low level moisture pulls
in from the south and with the showers clear of the terminal.
They are forecast to bottom out around 200-400ft by 09Z. As the
low ceilings set up, fog is also forecast to form with
visibility initially around 3-5SM, but potentially lowering to
around 1/2SM closer top 12-15Z. As temperatures slowly warm
through the day, the fog should burn off during the morning, and
then ceilings lift through the afternoon. Around 00Z, ceilings
should lift above 3000ft and allow for VFR conditions. This
evening, a front is forecast to move through and increase winds
from the northwest. There is a chance that low level wind shear
could develop around 200-500ft with speeds around 40-50 kts
between 03-06Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK