923
FXUS63 KGLD 230027
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
527 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is again possible tonight across eastern and
  southern areas.

- Another chance for precipitation is forecast starting Sunday
  last into early Monday morning.

- Breezy to gusty winds Tuesday in wake of a cold front.

- Colder, but near normal temperatures, expected around
  Thanksgiving. Increasing potential for colder air next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1243 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Fairly tranquil conditions remain forecast for today across the
area. A pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front associated
with a clipper system across the northern Plains is forecast to
move through the area. We have seen some moisture advection this
morning with dew points rising into the low to mid 40s across
the area. This will be short lived however as with the trough
and the cold front drier air in the low to mid 30 dew points
will then move into the area shunting out the higher dew points.
Winds this evening will become light and variable as the trough
moves through the area leading to winds again becoming west-
southwesterly. Moisture advection will again occur as a more
organized trough moves towards the area from the southwest. If
the moisture advection can occur sooner (before sunrise) then
stratus and fog (perhaps dense) would be more likely for
southern portions of the area. If the moisture advection occurs
later (mid morning Sunday) then just an increase in cloud cover
would occur which is what most deterministic guidance is
suggesting at this time which seems reasonable as this system is
currently moving into Arizona and New Mexico. At the minimum
for fog potential, due to the light and variable winds this
evening and overnight and low dew point depressions will add in
some patchy fog wording into the forecast mainly for locations
along and east of a McCook to Leoti line. Confidence in dense
fog at this time is only around 10% with confidence in fog
formation in general around 20-30%.

Sunday, breezy conditions with winds gusting 20-35 mph are
currently forecast as the trough approaches. Rain chances will
increase through the afternoon as an arc of showers moves
southwest to northeast through the area with a developing low.
Some isolated rumbles of thunder may be possible across
southeastern portions of the area where dew points will be
higher leading to some minimal amounts of MUCAPE. I did keep the
rain chances down a little bit as 15Z RAP13 cross sections did
show some dry air near 850-750mb layer that may make the showers
a bit more spotty or have virga be a bit more prevalent early
on. Gusty winds may occur with the showers or virga with some
sporadic gusts of 35-45 mph. Light rain will then continue to
linger through the evening hours as cyclogenesis occurs. Due to
the moist low levels will need to keep an eye on patchy fog
potential where rain is not ongoing. Rain is forecast to
continue through the morning hours on Monday as the back end of
the low moves through the area. Dew points remaining in the mid
to upper 30s should help keep the precipitation all rain but if
some cooling can occur then some spotty snowflakes could occur
across the higher elevations of Yuma and Kit Carson county.

Monday, light showers and/or drizzle may continue through the
day before ending west to east starting during the mid to late
morning hours as small amount so omega remain in the low levels
according to the 15Z RAP13 as high temperatures are forecast to
remain in the 50s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Starting the extended period Tuesday, another clipper system
across the northern Plains will bring a cold front through the
area. Gusty to perhaps strong winds look to occur with and
behind the front. GEFS Mean spread does show a large area of
where the clipper system could trek. If it does track further to
the south then the winds would end up stronger. This front does
look to remain dry as well. Highs for the day are forecast in
the 40s with the current timing of the front looking to move
through during the late morning hours. Continued cold air
advection is forecast to continue into the area with a surface
high in wake of the front leading to temperatures falling into
the low to mid teens.

Mid week, including for the Thanksgiving holiday at this time
does look to be more tranquil as well with ridging over the
western CONUS. If the ridge can amplify more then temperatures
may need to be warmed up a few degrees but with the amplitude of
the ridge currently near normal to slightly below normal
temperatures are currently forecast with the cooler air mass due
to the front on Tuesday remaining in place.

Late week into next weekend guidance continues to suggest a
stronger cold front may move through the area leading to a
period of below to well below normal temperatures. There still
remains a ton of spread with the timing of this front ranging
anywhere from a Friday evening passage to Sunday evening.
Compared to 24 hours ago the majority of ensemble members do
support the stronger front moving through the area. The main
takeaway is there is an increasing signal for colder air but
exactly how cold is still being worked out and if there will be
any precipitation chances during this time. Those with livestock
interests may want to start thinking about precautions to
ensure that livestock is protected from perhaps the coldest air
of the season thus far.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

GLD: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most, or
all, of the TAF period. Clear skies, calm winds and lingering
moisture from recent rainfall could facilitate the development
of fog this evening and overnight, though.. current and recent
runs of high-res model guidance continue to indicate that fog
will -not- develop. While confidence is low enough to preclude
explicit mention of sub-VFR conditions.. the 00Z TAF issuance
will reflect a TEMPO group for VFR fog (6SM BR) this evening.
Otherwise, showers and MVFR-IFR ceilings are possible around, or
shortly after, sunset Sunday evening.. at the very end of the
00Z TAF period. Light/variable or calm winds (this evening) will
shift to the S and increase to ~10-15 knots by sunrise (~12Z
Sunday).. as surface high pressure over the region progresses
east toward the MS River Valley. South winds will increase to
15-25 knots during the late morning and persist through the
majority of the afternoon.. as the MSLP gradient modestly
tightens on the eastern periphery of a developing lee cyclone in
CO. S winds are expected to decrease to 12-17 knots shortly
before sunset Sunday evening.. via the onset of a nocturnal
inversion and/or an increasingly stable, rain-cooled airmass.

MCK: Clear skies, calm winds and lingering moisture from recent
rainfall could facilitate the development of fog this evening
and overnight, though.. current and recent runs of high- res
model guidance continue to indicate that fog will -not- develop.
While confidence is low enough to preclude explicit mention of
sub-VFR conditions.. the 00Z TAF issuance will reflect a TEMPO
group for VFR fog (6SM BR) this evening. Otherwise.. VFR
conditions are likely to prevail throughout the 00Z TAF period.
Light/variable or calm winds (this evening) will shift to the S
and increase to ~10-15 knots during the late morning or early
afternoon.. as surface high pressure over the region progresses
east toward the MS River Valley. 10-15 knot S winds are
anticipated to persist through the remainder of the 00Z TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent