816
FXUS63 KGLD 031643
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1043 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional potential for isolated severe thunderstorms in
  vicinity of the Interstate 70 corridor in northwest Kansas
  Tuesday morning (~4-10 am MDT / ~5-11 am CDT).

- A less active weather pattern is anticipated through the
  remainder of the work week (late Tuesday through Friday),
  with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Overview: Cyclonic flow aloft over the central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains will transition to NW flow by mid-week.. as
an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and
4-Corners extends E and NE across the Southern Plains.

Today: While early morning convection has taken a toll on the
thermodynamic environment over the Tri-State area.. i.e. reduced
mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) and a cooler post-outflow low-
level airmass.. regional analyses suggest that mid-level lapse
rates will rapidly recover/steepen this afternoon (replenished
by an otherwise pervasive elevated mixed layer in the lee of the
Rockies). This.. along with decreasing cloud cover /strong
insolation/ and modest low-level moisture (850 mb dewpoints
~10-14C) should foster moderate diurnal destabilization
(~1000-1500 J/kg mlcape) this afternoon. An upper level
disturbance situated over eastern CO at 08 UTC this morning
(refer to SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will progress
eastward into central KS this afternoon. Subsidence in the wake
of this feature should tend to suppress convective development
this afternoon, especially in northwest KS. While isolated
diurnal development cannot be ruled out along
geographically/climatologically favored portions of the Palmer
Divide (CO) invof peak heating (~21-00 UTC).. substantial
convective development is not anticipated. With the above in
mind, expect predominately dry conditions.

Tonight-Tue night: An upper level disturbance approaching the
PAC NW coast at 08 UTC this morning will progress eastward
across WA-ID (today), MT (tonight) and the Dakotas (Tue). An
associated shear axis, extending southward along the lee of the
northern and central Rockies late Mon night, will progress
eastward across the Tri-State area Tue morning (~09-18 UTC)..
accompanied by a modest lee cyclone (progressing eastward from
southeast CO into southwest KS). Guidance suggests that
southerly flow, low-level convergence and shallow moisture
pooling on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned cyclone..
beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (8.0-8.5 C/km H7-H5
lapse rates).. will foster a brief period of moderate to strong
instability (1500-2500 J/kg mlcape) over portions of the Tri-
State area Tue morning.. strongest along/south of I-70 in
northwest KS ~12-15 UTC. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via
recent (00-06 UTC) runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST vary
considerably with regard to the location, coverage and magnitude
of convective development in northwest KS Tue morning. With the
above in mind, a narrow spatio-temporal window of opportunity
for severe thunderstorms may exist over portions of the NWS
Goodland CWA Tuesday morning -- mainly invof the I-70 corridor
in northwest KS around ~10-16 UTC. Thereafter and otherwise,
benign weather and dry conditions are anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Wed-Thu: Long range guidance suggests that NW flow aloft will
prevail over the Central/Northern Plains in this period.. as an
amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and
4-Corners (Wed) extends eastward across the Southern Plains
(Thu). With the Tri-State area situated in relative close
proximity to the aforementioned ridge -- on the southern
/anticyclonic shear/ side of the upper level jet -- expect dry
conditions and above normal temperatures.

Fri-Sun: Long range guidance suggests a somewhat more active
pattern in this period. Synoptic subsidence on the western
periphery of an amplifying upper level trough over the eastern
CONUS may aid in the development of a low-level (surface to 850
mb) ridge over portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley
and (potentially) an influx of rich low-level moisture from the
TX Gulf Coast into portions of the Southern and Central Plains..
where a synoptic regime characterized by modest WNW-NW flow
aloft will persist -- a regime in which [1] small amplitude
waves on the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies may
aid/enhance diurnal convective development on the lee slopes of
the central/northern Rockies and [2] a large reservoir of
instability (increasing with eastern and southern extent) may
strongly support upscale convective growth and downstream
propagation over the Central/Southern Plains. In other words, a
pattern supportive of long-lived mesoscale convective systems.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1034 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions are currently forecasted for each terminal. Winds
will slowly shift from the west to more southerly throughout the
day. After sunset breezy sustained winds look to occur as the
LLJ increases across the area. A surface trough then moves
across the area overnight bringing some low and mid level
moisture to the area; there is potential for some storms to
develop around sunrise around or east of the KGLD terminal.
Confidence is not high enough at this time in storm development
and location to introduce into the TAF. In wake of the surface
trough winds will become northwesterly around 15-20 knots
sustained.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...BV
AVIATION...Trigg