485
FXUS63 KGLD 072058
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
158 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Saturday, strong northerly winds may create hazardous travel
  conditions for high-profile vehicles, especially on east-to-
  west routes, such as Interstate 70, where cross winds will be
  strongest. The wind will lead to elevated fire weather
  conditions across the area along with patches of blowing dust
  reducing air quality and localized visibility reductions.

- Chances for precipitation remain below 10% for much of the
  next 7 days.

- Mild conditions forecast for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

For the remainder of this afternoon, high cloud cover should be
present as high level moisture moves in ahead of the upper trough.
Temperatures should remain in the 60s with a few 70s in eastern
parts of the area where sunny skies were present for longer.

Tonight, a cold front is set to move through around the midnight
hour. The cold front should shift winds quickly to out of the
northwest with speeds around 15-25 mph and some gusts up to 40 mph.
There is a low chance for a few sprinkles as some mid-level moisture
pushes through with the trough, but with dry air remaining in place
at the surface. Temperatures should hover in the 30s and 40s as the
stronger cold air advection remains well behind the front.

Saturday is forecast to be a nuisance weather day as the upper
trough swings through the North-Central Plains. The front should
be well through the area, but the cold air mass is forecast to
be lagged behind to the north, putting the area in a fairly
strong pressure gradient. Wind speeds should increase to around
20-35 mph. With the tighter height gradients from the upper
trough, winds around 850-500mb are forecast to be between 40-50
kts. These winds should be able to mix to the surface with
sunshine forecast in the wake of the trough with all the
moisture pushed out and wrapping over the Eastern Plains (closer
to the main low pressure center). Looking across the different
guidance, the consensus is for wind gusts to be between 40-50
mph, though recent events suggest that some gusts to near 60 mph
are possible. Given the limited aspect in both time and space
of the 60 mph gusts, have opted to not issue a High Wind
Warning. The winds and steep low level lapse rates are forecast
to allow for some dust to kick up. With mixing heights forecast
to be around 7000ft and the stronger winds forecast for a few
hours during the afternoon, the current expectation is that dust
would become diffuse and just lead to some hazy skies. There
doesn`t seem to be much of a suggestion that the front would
slow and we would cap more, which would lead to an increased
risk for plumes. Still, be cautious around open or freshly
plowed fields as it would be impossible for some visibility
reductions in very small areas. On the fire side of things, the
strong winds will lead to increased fire danger. However, Red
Flag Warning criteria will not be met as the cooling
temperatures will help keep relative humidity in the 20s.

Saturday night, the main bulk of the cold air mass is forecast to
move into the area as the main upper trough axis surges south
through the Plains. Winds should slowly lower as the center of the
high pressure moves over the area. With speeds around 5-10 mph and
the cold air advection, temperatures should drop into the 20s with
some teens possible in Eastern Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Sunday is forecast to start off cold with the high pressure system
over the area. Temperatures will likely only warm into the 40s
underneath partly cloudy skies.

Monday through Friday are forecast to be fairly mild with the area
underneath northwest/zonal flow aloft. Highs should climb into the
60s and 70s with the cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday on
the backside of a shortwave trough that is forecast to move through
the northwest flow. Lows should be in the 30s and 40s. There is a
small risk for critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday as
temperatures warm into the 70s while the dry air remains in place.
This should lower relative humidity into the teens and 20s with the
lowest in Eastern Colorado. Ahead of the shortwave trough, winds
could strengthen a bit with gusts around 20-30 mph. Winds through
much of the rest of the week are forecast to be 20 mph or less with
the zonal flow.

Precipitation chances remain unlikely through the week, short of
maybe a few sprinkles or showers when the shortwave moves
through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1010 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period with either clear skies or clouds generally above
10000ft. There is a 10% chance for a sprinkle or two to move
through tonight as the front passes through the area.

Winds are forecast to shift from out of the north/northwest to
southwest today as low pressure develops in the High Plains.
Speeds should generally be around 10-15 kts. When the front
passes around 06-09Z, winds should rapidly shift back to out of
the northwest with speeds near 20 kts and gusts around 25-35
kts. There could also be some brief low level wind shear ahead
of the front, with winds shifting to out of the northwest at 40
kts before the surface winds shift. Tomorrow morning should see
winds increase through the morning with speeds around 25-30 kts
and wind gusts nearing 40 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are currently forecast Saturday
for essentially the entire forecast area as gusty to strong
winds are forecast to occur in wake of a cold front. Current
thinking is that sustained winds of 25-30 mph perhaps locally
stronger will occur. Wind gust potential of 45-55 mph and
perhaps sporadic bouts of 58+ mph winds will increase after 11am
MT and last through around 5pm MT. The limiting factor for
critical conditions is that humidity values are currently
forecast in the low 20s despite drier air advecting in from the
north as temperatures are forecast to remain in the low 50s.
With this said, no fire weather product is anticipated at this
time. Do have concern for fire spread should one start however
due to the winds as GFDI (Grassland Fire Danger Index) is
forecast in the low 30s to mid 70s across the area. This along
with curing or cured fuels across the area from the freezes over
the past few weeks is what is leading to the concern for the
fire spread. Lapse rates are also forecast to be unstable around
8.5 c/km which would also lead to the potential for a fire to
intensify if one were to develop as well. If doing any
activities Saturday that involves sparks or flames use extra
caution.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg