707
FXUS63 KGLD 081959
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1259 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and breezy Tuesday; gusts should remain
  below 40 MPH over the northwest part of the forecast area,
  with even lower speeds elsewhere.

- Slight northward shift in the jet stream has led to warmer
  temperatures being forecast for the week, and shifting the
  precipitation north of the forecast area.

- Confidence is less than 50% models have an accurate depiction
  of the jet stream location (which will impact temperatures
  and precipitation chances) given the many minor disturbances
  moving through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1255 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over the West Coast with a
closed low over Southeast Canada.  Northwest flow continues over the
Plains.  A subtle short wave trough was moving over the forecast
area today.  Dry air has cause very little cloud cover to accompany
the trough passage.  At the surface a trough was moving through the
forecast area.  Behind it winds turned to the northwest.

Tonight west winds will continue.  Temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than last night due to the northwest winds and dew
points being a few degrees higher than last night.

Tuesday stronger low level winds will move over the forecast area
ahead of an incoming cold front.  Model blend data indicates the
high end wind gusts will be up to 50 MPH, primarily for Yuma County
area.  However the more likely speeds would be in the 40-45 MPH
range.  The winds decrease to the east and southeast. The continued
warm air advection will cause unseasonably warm temperatures. Warmed
temperatures slightly further toward the higher end of the data
spectrum due to the forecast highs warming over the past couple of
days.  Sounds show a potential for lower dew points to mix down
during the late morning and first half of the afternoon.  As such,
lowered the dew points toward the 10th percentile of the data
spectrum.  This yields relative humidity values in the 20-25% range.

Tuesday night a cold front will move through.  Winds will turn from
the west to the north as the front moves through.  Model data
indicates a pressure change rate that is fast but not rapid enough
to be concerned about strong winds at this point with the frontal
passage.  Model ensemble data shows the maximum gusts would be
around 40 MPH, with the highest gusts over the northwest part of the
forecast area.  A complicating factor in determining if the gusts
will materialize is if there will be a strong enough inversion to
prevent the stronger winds from reaching the ground, or if the cold
air advection will erode the inversion and allow the stronger winds
to reach the ground.  Based on the model ensemble data, confidence
is around 30% that winds greater than 40 MPH will occur with the
frontal passage.  The strongest winds should occur before midnight,
then gradually decline through the night as the surface high
pressure moves in.

Am not expecting any precipitation due to large dew point
depressions with the frontal passage, and the associated upper level
short wave trough being to the east over the Missouri River
Valley.&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Slight north shift in the jet stream have led to warmer temperatures
overall and moving the precipitation northward.  However a small
shift back south can have the opposite effect.  Difficult for the
models to determine the specific track of the jet stream at this
time range with so many subtle short wave troughs moving through.

Wednesday the cold air advection will end during the afternoon, as
south winds behind the surface high pressure begin to bring in
warmer air.  Laminar flow and a dry environment will move over the
forecast area behind the cold front.  Warm air advection will
continue during the night, leading to lows that will be rather warm
for this time of year.

Thursday warm air advection continues.  Models have slightly shifted
the jet stream to the north, but also move a cold front through
sooner.  This has increased the warm air advection occurring ahead
of the cold front.  Models have narrowed the temperature spread in
the data for this day from last night`s data.  A cold front rolls
through during the night.  With a slightly northward shift in the
jet stream the precipitation chances have also shifted to the north
out of the forecast area.  As such, the frontal passage is forecast
to be dry.

Friday temperatures will either be steady through the day after
sunrise, or fall due to continued cold air advection.  With the jet
stream slightly further north, the cold air advection will not be as
strong over the forecast area as was shown yesterday.  This has
allowed highs to be warmer than what was shown earlier.  However,
the upper level pattern is in a very favorable setup to bring cold
air from Canada into the forecast area.  All that is needed is a
slight shift back south for that cold air to not miss the area to
the east.

Saturday a broad upper level short wave trough moves through the
Plains.  A cold front will precede the trough through the forecast
area.  Most of the dynamics of the trough will be over the upper
Midwest.  As such the forecast will continue to be dry despite the
frontal passage.  There is a 10 degree spread in possible high
temperatures for the day.  As such, confidence is low we will see
above normal temperatures for highs in the west half of the forecast
area on this day given the passage of a cold front.

Sunday and Monday have a short wave ridge moving through as the main
ridge axis briefly shifts onto the Plains.  Following it will be a
short wave trough, mainly over the Northern Plains.  The upper level
feature may bring a cold front through the forecast area.  Any front
looks to be weak at this point.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Winds will turn to the
northwest this afternoon behind a surface trough. Tonight winds
will become from the west. Tuesday westerly winds will
strengthen during the late morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL