675
FXUS63 KGLD 090816
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
116 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and breezy Tuesday; strongest gusts of 40-45
  mph across northwest part of the forecast area, with lower
  speeds elsewhere.

- Cold front this evening may bring wind gusts of 40-50 mph.
  Strongest winds favored across the north.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures Thursday in the 60s to low 70s
  before cooler, albeit normal to slightly below normal,
  temperatures Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

High clouds continue to move north to south across the area tonight,
am seeing some increase in mid level moisture as well as
additional clouds will continue to form through the night and
the morning hour but may be more scattered in nature. No
precipitation is expected due to dry air at the surface. Well
above average temperatures remain forecast for the area with
highs in the mid to upper 60s as west-northwest downsloping
winds ensue along with breezy to gusty winds from a very strong
mountain wave to our west. Would not be overly surprised if
there is a localized 70 degree observation somewhere across the
CWA as well. The one variable that could temper temperatures
some is the development of some mid level clouds from roughly
Sharon Springs up through McCook starting during the early
afternoon, this is the reason to not go even more aggressive
with high temperatures.

For the winds, the 850mb wind field is forecast to increase starting
around 7a-8am MT from the leading edge of strong clipper system
across the northern Plains. Mixing heights are forecast to be from
roughly 2000-3500 feet AGL which yields wind gusts in the 35-45 mph
range according to RAP and GFS soundings. The strongest winds are
forecast to be across northwest portions of the area. With how the
strong the wind field is would not be surprised if some isolated
instances of 50-55 mph occurs especially across Yuma county.
The warmer temperatures will also yield humidity values in the
low to mid 20s across the area which may end up flirting with
some elevated fire weather conditions especially if we can warm
up a little more than forecast.

Tuesday evening, a brief break from the wind is forecast as the
nocturnal inversion returns. However the strong clipper system
across the northern Plains will bring a modest cold front through
the area. With the wind field still in place gusty to strong winds
could occur with it as cold air advection is forecast to continue
through the night. RAP/NAM/GFS all have modest pressure rises of 6-
10mb and the 00Z HRRR wind gust output has some near 40 knot winds
in MCK which seems reasonable looking at the wind field on soundings
below 1000` which is enough for me to increase winds in the
forecast. The strongest winds are forecast to occur from around 7pm
CT (6pm MT)-12am CT (11pm MT). The winds should become weaker the
further south they move as the front moves further away from the
clipper system. If the front were to slow down some then winds would
not be as strong as the clipper and the front would become even more
disconnected. Some minor blowing dust may occur with the front but
with the current forecasted timing and it being as the low levels
stabilize not anticipating any major/impactful blowing dust issues.
Low stratus and perhaps a period of light rain/drizzle may also
occur behind the front as RAP cross soundings show an increase in
mid level moisture and weak omega around 2 microbars.

Wednesday, a relatively cooler day remains in store but still
slightly above normal in wake of the cold front. High temperatures
are forecast in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s with the warmest across
the Colorado counties as downsloping westerly winds are again
forecast to return. Some lingering mid level vorticity from the
clipper system will bring some mid level omega amd mid level
moisture mainly northern portions of the CWA resulting in the
potential for flurries or sprinkles as the low levels become dry
again. As mentioned the warmest temperatures are forecast to be
across the west this is due to a surface trough moving through which
will shift winds back to the southwest around 10-15 mph resulting in
some wind gusts around 25 mph across the Colorado counties during
the afternoon. This trough is forecast to continue to keep winds
westerly throughout the night keep overnight temperatures in the
mid/upper 20s to low 30s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Starting the extended period Thursday, guidance has trended warmer
with the temperatures as highs are currently forecast in the mid to
upper 60s as the same story from early in the week continues with
the westerly downsloping continuing. There are still a handful of
GEFS members that is still a little cooler but at this point feel it
is the outlier as it has fully transitioned to what was being
seen in the ECMWF and ECMWF-AIFS last night.

Friday, ECMWF continues to remain slower with the frontal passage
than the GEFS with an after sunrise frontal passage versus an
overnight passage. There are also still a few ECMWF members
that keeps the front east of the CWA which is an interesting
change but one that seems unlikely at this point. All in all for
Friday, ensembles have shifted towards the ECMWF solution
keeping the coldest of the air northeast of us. Granted yes it
will still get cold but be more slightly below normal than well
below normal. As a result of this precipitation chances
continue to look slim. Still watching for some stratus/fog and
potentially freezing drizzle/drizzle potential Friday morning
with some weak surface omega in place with the northeast portion
of the area looking more favored for that. The freezing drizzle
potential will depend on the magnitude of the front with a
colder front favoring the freezing drizzle and vice versa. At
this time I would favor more the drizzle side of things than
freezing drizzle with the "warmer"/slower frontal passage being
favored.

This weekend has now turned into the uncertain part when it comes to
temperatures. There are now signals towards a secondary cold front
moving through which is lobe of colder air that splits off from the
Friday cold which the ECMWF is really picking up on but the GEFS is
more split. If the ECMWF is actually the preferred guidance for this
time period then Saturday may be our cold day across the area as the
20 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentile
temperatures has changed to this day as well with McCook for
example ranging from 32F to 50F for a high. If the ECMWF trend
does continue then would not be surprised if a cooling trend in
the forecast for Saturday does occur. A very small signal for
light precipitation is seen for Saturday morning but at this
time it does not look likely.

A milder signal is then seen again for the start of the new work
week currently as high temperatures in the 50s to 60s return. As a
split flow pattern emerges. Which ironically has decent
agreement currently in ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 953 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. LLWS is
again forecast for MCK until mid morning when the nocturnal
inversion wanes and winds increase. LLWS is a bit more marginal
for GLD but will watch closely and issue an AMD if warranted.
Wind gusts for each terminal are forecast to range from 25-35
knots with the higher end more likely at MCK. A cold front is
forecast to move through during the late afternoon/early evening
bringing a period of very strong LLWS and finally gusty to
strong winds potentially gusting up to 40 knots again mainly
favoring MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg