861
FXUS63 KGLD 021027
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
327 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures in the 60s/70s and dry conditions are
  forecast for the end of the weekend and into early next week.

- Near record highs possible on Sunday along with localized
  critical fire weather potential across northwestern portions
  of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Over the next 24 hours, a 500 mb high over the southern CONUS
will be a dominate feature influencing the CWA. This will lead
to mostly clear skies and allow efficient heating today. At 850
mb, a ridge axis will be east of the CWA for majority of the
day, bringing in WAA from the southwest. This will allow
temperatures to rapidly climb today, likely into the mid 70s to
low 80s. Warmest temperatures are expected to be near a line
from Wallace, KS to Yuma, CO, where there is 60-70% confidence
locations will reach 80- 83 degrees.

These warm temperatures may set high temperature records,
discussed more in the Climate section, and will lower RH values
leading to some fire weather concern. More fire weather
information can be found in the Fire weather section.

Overnight tonight, likely around 6Z, a cold front will start
moving into the area from the north. This will lead to some more
clouds and north-northeasterly winds, which may gust into the
15-20 kts range. Combined with the daytime`s high temperatures,
lows have been bumped up a little, now forecast to only cool
into the 30s. Some places in the southeastern CWA may remain in
the 40s which areas around Yuma, CO may see upper 20s briefly.

Monday and Monday night, a high will be moving across the
Northern Plains, followed by a low. This will keep our winds
shifting a decent amount. Monday afternoon, southeasterly winds
may gust into the 25-30 kts range in eastern Colorado. Highs
look to climb to around 60 with lows cooling into the mid to
upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Tue-Wed: Long range guidance indicates that a progressive (and
largely unidirectional) flow pattern will prevail over the CONUS
early-mid week.. with the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies
confined to higher latitudes (45-60N). Above average confidence
in dry conditions / no precipitation. Expect day-to-day
fluctuations in temperature (as much as 10-20F) and wind
direction, warmer Tue (upper 70`s) and cooler Wed (lower-mid
60`s).. as regular/periodic upper level waves (and modest
accompanying surface lows) traverse the Northern Plains.

Thu-Sun: Long range guidance continues to indicate a transition
to a more amplified progressive flow pattern over the CONUS
late this week and next weekend, with the mid-latitude
westerlies routinely descending to lower latitudes (35-45N).
Broadly speaking, expect an increasing potential for active/
unsettled weather over the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes.. where episodic progressive cyclones may
peripherally affect the Central Plains (e.g. breezy/shifting
winds and fluctuating temperatures, no precipitation).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period.
Southwesterly winds will slowly become northwesterly throughout
the late morning, and gradually increase in speed. 15-22 kts
gusts are expected for both KGLD and KMCK once winds become
northwesterly and will last until sunset. For KMCK, around 0-2Z,
a cold front will move in from the northeast. KGLD will see
light and variable winds for a few hours before the cold front
arrives, some time around 5-7Z.

The freezing fog potential around KMCK this morning has about a
2-5% chance of occurring around sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Locally critical to perhaps an hour or two of critical fire
weather conditions remain forecast across most of the area but
the higher concerns is across Yuma, northern Kit Carson, Dundy
and Cheyenne, Kansas where a 30-35 knot 700mb jet is forecast to
reside. Some aspects of fire weather conditions will be present
including warm temperatures (near record to record highs) and
humidity values in the low teens to low 20s across the area. The
uncertainty factor in play remains with the wind. Confidence is
low in if we will be able to mix high enough to tap into the
700mb jet as mixing heights are only around 3000-4000 feet in
the area of concern mentioned above are flirting in that range
looking at the 12Z NAM which is representing the jet the
strongest. If the jet is tapped into then wind gusts of 25-30
mph will be possible but if not then gusts only of 15-20 mph
would occur. Current thinking is that we will have some gusts in
the 25-30 mph range but with the jet being on the fringe of the
mixing level lean towards the gusts being more sporadic or
spotty in nature. Confidence in reaching critical thresholds for
the CWA (15% or lower RH and 25 mph or greater winds, in this
case gusts) is around 50-60%, for 2 hours confidence ins around
20-30% and for three or more hours to justify a Red Flag Warning
is only 10- 20%. With humidity values currently forecast in the
low teens to low 20s across the area and the warm temperatures
there may be the potential for some fire starts as fuels
continue to cure especially after the multiple hard freeze days
we`ve had over the past week. Overall the threat for extreme
fire danger or even spread is fairly low with Grassland Fire
Danger (GFDI) values in the upper teens to mid 20s and Burn
Index forecast in the low 20s based on Kansas Mesonet data (at
least on the Kansas side). Am seeing some unstable 0-3 lapse
rates round 8-8.5 c/KM so if a large fire were to start then
there may be the potential for some intensity of the fire at
least for an hour or two during the afternoon hours. Should a
fire start be aware of a wind shift from the west-southwesterly
winds during the day to more of a north-northeast wind during
the late evening to early morning hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy across portions of
the area on Sunday November 2nd. Record highs and current
forecast highs for the date are listed below (in Fahrenheit).

Goodland:   81 in 1931... current forecast 81
Burlington: 79 in 1931... current forecast 80
McCook: 80 in 2022....... current forecast 75
Hill City: 83 in 2022.... current forecast 75

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg
CLIMATE...CA/Trigg