420
FXUS63 KGLD 041051
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
351 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue through
  the week. Near record to record high temperatures again
  possible today.

- Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to develop Thursday and
  Saturday across the area resulting in some potential for
  elevated to critical fire weather potential each day.

- No obvious signals for precipitation for the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1212 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

Early this morning, a mid-level low over the Northern Plains is
extending a trough axis over the CWA. While there is a decent
amount of mid-level forcing as the axis moves through, the lack
of moisture in the CWA will prevent any precipitation from
reaching the ground. Locations in the eastern CWA are still
forecast to be around 100% RH, so patchy fog is possible.
Southerly winds may once again prevent fog formation. Where fog
will most likely form, temperatures will remain above freezing,
so freezing fog is not a concern tonight.

Today will be a dry and warm day, pretty similar to Sunday. A
high pressure system will move over the southern CWA and
temperatures will climb to near 80. This does create some fire
weather concerns, as RH values will fall into the mid teens,
especially along and west of KS HWY 25. However, with the high
pressure system moving over the CWA, wind gusts are expected to
remain below 20 kts for majority of the area. In the northern
row of counties, the potential for gusts around 25-30 kts
increases to about 30%. Much like Sunday, there is currently
less than 20% confidence Red Flag Warning criteria will be hit,
but an hour or two of critical fire weather conditions in
northern Yuma through Hitchcock counties has a 60% chance of
occurrence. Current limiting factor is 500-700 mb wind gusts not
being able to mix down to the surface.

Tuesday night, another cold front is expected to move through
the area, likely between 5 and 10Z. There`s a 40% chance that
the coolest temperatures will occur early in the night, and the
FROPA will mix the PBL and increase temperatures. Lows will only
cool into the mid 30s to low 40s.

During the day Wednesday, a ridge west of the Rockies will
amplify slightly, turning our mostly zonal flow into a weak
northwesterly flow. Temperatures look to warm into the low 60s
Wednesday. Conditions on Wednesday look to mimic Monday`s, with
southeasterly winds gusting up to around 25 kts in the
afternoon.

Wednesday night, 2 mb rises in three hours ahead of a cold
front late Thursday morning will likely be enough of a
difference to keep stronger winds reaching the surface.
Southerly winds gusting up around 30 kts in eastern Colorado is
currently expected, but confidence is only around 40%. With the
extra wind, temperatures will likely only cool to the upper 30s,
potentially staying in the low 40s. Winds will weaken by
sunrise, as our next trough approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

Overview: An initially progressive and largely unidirectional
flow pattern over the CONUS will become increasingly sinuous
(late-week) and highly amplified (this weekend).. culminating
in the development of a deep, full-latitude trough /cyclonic
flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS and a pronounced upper level
ridge over the western CONUS. Expect an increasing potential for
active and unsettled weather over the Northern Plains, Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes.. where episodic progressive cyclones
will peripherally affect the Central Plains in the form of
occasional dry cold frontal passages. Long range guidance
suggests that the highly amplified synoptic pattern over the
CONUS (late this weekend) will become less amplified and more
progressive by mid-week.

Thursday-Friday: Expect modest fluctuations in wind speed/
direction and temperature from day-to-day, with above-average
highs in the lower 70`s (Thu) and mid 60`s (Fri).

Saturday-Sunday: Similar, albeit with cooler temperatures and
more pronounced fluctuations in wind speed and direction..
including a potential for strong NNW-N winds on Saturday. Expect
near-average (Sat) to below-average (Sun) highs.

Monday-Tuesday: Expect a warming trend as the deep, full-
latitude east CONUS trough migrates east toward the Atlantic
Coast and the western CONUS ridge flattens and extends eastward
over the Central and Southern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

Between 12 and 15Z, KMCK could see some pockets of fog around
the airport that may briefly diminish visibility, but prolonged
impacts to flight categories are not expected. Besides that, VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. KMCK,
between 18 and 23Z, have a 20-30% chance of having gusts up to
30 kts, but stronger winds should remain well north of the
airport. KGLD is expected to remain close enough to a surface
high that gusts are not expected, but this could lead to
variable winds throughout the day.

Overnight tonight, around the 6-12Z time frame Wednesday
morning, a cold front is expected to move through the area and
bring in northerly winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1221 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Locally critical to perhaps an hour or two of critical fire
weather conditions are possible across Yuma, Dundy, Hitchcock
and Red Willow counties Tuesday. A very similar pattern to
Sunday is forecast to emerge with warm, near record high
temperatures resulting in humidity values in the low to mid
teens. The main issue when it comes to critical fire weather
conditions is again the wind. The stronger jets do look to
remain north of the Goodland forecast area at this time but
there is the potential (10-20%) that they could set up a little
further south increasing the gust threat to around 30 mph.
Mixing heights are currently forecast to be roughly about the
same as what they were Sunday around 4000-4500 feet. Cloud cover
in the form of upper level cirrus appears to be more prevalent
than Sunday as well which may affect temperatures some keeping
them a little lower than currently forecast which would raise
humidity values some. Confidence in 1 hour of critical
conditions is around 40-50% and confidence in 3 or more hours to
warrant any fire weather products is around 10-15% right now.
0-3km lapse rates are also lower as well than Sunday which leads
me to believe that even if a fire were to start it shouldn`t
intensify quickly due to the more stable environment. If a fire
were to start be aware of another cold front moving through
Tuesday evening/early Wednesday morning that would shift the
winds to the north from the west direction currently forecast
during the day.

Additional elevated to potentially critical fire weather days
are possible Thursday and Saturday as a potentially windier
pattern may develop.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 410 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy across portions of
the area on Tuesday, November 4th. Record highs and current
forecast highs for the date are listed below (in Fahrenheit).

Goodland:    83 in 2020... current forecast 79
Burlington:  84 in 2020... current forecast 77
McCook:      84 in 2020... current forecast 77
Hill City:   79 in 2020... current forecast 77

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...Trigg