902
FXUS63 KGRB 112356
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
556 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blustery tonight and Wednesday. Mix of light lake-effect rain
  and snow showers in north central Wisconsin tonight.

- Moderating temperatures into the weekend, with highs around 60
  degrees possible in central and east central Wisconsin by
  Saturday.

- Below normal precipitation expected over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A warm front was approaching the forecast area early this
afternoon and generating widespread cloud cover over the region.
Temperatures were still on the cool side, with readings in the
30s and lower 40s.

Expect temperatures to remain fairly steady or slowly rise in some
areas this evening before weak cold air advection arrives.
Scattered light rain/snow showers are possible in the far north,
initially due to WAA, then eventually weak lake-effect as winds
switch to the west-northwest and Lake-H8 delta-t`s increase to 12
to 14 C. Not anticipating any snow accumulation at this time. Any
lingering precipitation should end by Wednesday morning, with
clearing skies occurring during the morning. High temperatures
will remain cool, with readings in the upper 30s and 40s.

High pressure will bring dry weather for the rest of the work
week, with abundant sunshine and WAA leading to a gradual warmup.
As the high shifts east Friday and Friday night, developing south
flow will bring much warmer air into the region. This will be
especially evident on Saturday, as gusty south to southwest winds
develop ahead of a strong cold front and push high temperatures
to at least 60 degrees in central and east central WI. The cold
front looks to be moisture-starved, with only a chance of light
showers or sprinkles expected Saturday into Saturday night. Much
cooler and blustery conditions return on Sunday. The change in air
mass is quite pronounced in the models, as 850 mb temperatures
rise to +12 to +16 C by 12z/Saturday, then drop to -3 to -9 C by
12z/Sunday.

A narrow NW to SE oriented ridge axis moves across the area Sunday
night into Monday, accompanied by dry weather. The next low
pressure system is expected to pass south of the region, and
models disagree on whether or not it will track far enough north
to bring precipitation to the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 551 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue at time tonight into early
Wednesday morning. The main story for tonight will be the
winds. Low level wind shear will develop this evening
from the west and become northwest overnight into
Wednesday morning. Surface will be on the light side
early this evening, then increase from west to east
later this evening and overnight and continue on Wednesday
with gusts to around 25 knots possible. Winds will then diminish
towards sunset on Wednesday. Some spotty rain or snow showers
are possible across the far north tonight, mainly from KRHI on
northward. Little impact is expected.




&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Eckberg