Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 222332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
532 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 223 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Mid to high level clouds ahead of the next fast moving clipper
system already spreading over the state this afternoon. At 2
pm, scattered snow showers were noted upstream over northern
Minnesota and far western wisconsin primarily along the 850
baroclinic zone. Little or no snow accumulation noted upstream so
far this afternoon. Best waa or isent lift region arriving a bit
faster this afternoon so started chc pops a bit faster over
central wisconsin later this afternoon.  These snow showers were
moving into a rather dry air mass so the start time will continue
to be challenging.

This dry air mass both at the surface as well as periods of mid
level drying at the onset and then as the system waa wanes late,
may produce some light freezing type overnight. Since the progs
measurable pcpn has backed off from previous runs, will also back
off a bit on the mention of a freezing type at this time in terms
of a time period. The drier low levels may be just too much to
overcome. Upstream reports indicate all snow at this time as well.

Surface ridging and gradual upper height increases on Thursday
will produce decreasing clouds. Redeveloping WAA pattern later
Thursday ahead of the next system over the northern plains will
start another warming trend.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 223 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Low amplitude flow aloft across the northern CONUS is forecast
through at least early next week. Model solutions start to diverge
early in the week.

Warm advection ahead of an approaching surface system, along with
a mid level short wave, will bring a chance for rain showers to
the area on Friday. Much warmer than normal temperatures are also in
store, with highs forecast to be about 15 degrees above normal. A
passing cold front will keep temperatures mainly in the 30s across
the area on Saturday, and some lake effect snow showers are
possible in north central Wisconsin. Another round of warm
advection ahead of the next surface system will bring much warmer
temperatures back again for Monday.

More uncertainly surrounds the rest of the forecast as models
start to diverge, but the blended solution has a cold front moving
through Wisconsin on Tuesday with chances for rain and/or snow
across much of the area during the day. Snow chances remain,
mainly in north central Wisconsin, on Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Highs Wednesday should be close to normal.

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Clouds were thickening with the approach of a clipper low pressure
system early this evening. Dry air in the lower atmosphere will
delay precipitation early on, but light snow or flurries should
develop in the mid to late evening. As the snow tapers off, it
may mix with or change over to light freezing rain before ending.
All of the precipitation should be east of the region by daybreak,
followed by a quick clearing trend Thursday morning.




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