Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 280752
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
252 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A short-wave trof was shifting southeast of the region early this
morning. Cooler Canadian air had overspread the state, with early
morning temperatures in the 50s. Widespread stratocumulus clouds
covered most of the forecast area, though clearing was occurring
near the WI/Upper MI border.

High pressure will build into the region today, and linger through
midweek. This will result in plenty of sunshine and little or no
precipitation. Used a blend of the better performing guidance sets
for temperatures the next couple days. This yielded highs in the
lower to middle 70s today, and upper 70s to lower 80s on
Wednesday, with slightly cooler readings near Lake Michigan.
Lowered min temps a few degrees tonight, with a few of the typical
cold spots expected to drop into the middle to upper 30s. We could
see some patchy frost in north central WI overnight, but will let
the next shift take another look and decide whether to add it to
the fcst. Also added some patchy fog late tonight for the
Wisconsin River Valley.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

There is a chance for showers in north central Wisconsin late
Wednesday night as surface high pressure drifts away from the
state and a cold front and mid level trough approach from the
northwest. A slight chance for showers extends farther to the
east and south, mainly west of the Fox Valley.

The main event during this part of the forecast looks to be
Thursday into Thursday night as the cold front and trough pass
through the area. Kept the likely PoPs for Thursday due to good
upper dynamics, the front and GFS MUCAPE values forecast to be in
excess of 1000 j/kg. Still looking like there could be a risk of
severe storms with this system.

High pressure is expected to move into the region behind the
departing front, bringing drier weather for Friday through the
weekend. Whether there will be any rain in the area on monday is
uncertain due to differences in model solutions.

High temperatures should be within a few degrees of normal most
days. Friday looks to be the exception with the area in a cooler
air mass in the wake of the departing cold front.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Clouds continue to be an issue with MVFR conditions north/low-end
VFR conditions south/ifr conditions near the lakeshore with
patches of clear skies at times across central Wisconsin and the
fox valley. Subsidence and dry air will continue to slowly advect
in from the north, which should act to clear skies out during the
overnight hours. High pressure is expected to build into the
Western Great Lakes for Tuesday and provide for mostly sunny skies
and pleasant conditions.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kurimski



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