Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
351 FXUS66 KHNX 180800 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 100 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fog development expected for the San Joaquin Valley (along the Highway 99 corridor) Saturday (20-30% chance for quarter mile visibility). 2. Clear and dry conditions will prevail through the weekend. Another disturbance is expected to cross the area toward the middle of next week. 3. Probability of reaching 80 degrees this weekend and early next week will range from 60% to 80%. Cooling expected toward the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Warm and dry conditions will continue this weekend as afternoon highs now reaching seasonal normal values. The ridge responsible for the warm conditions is now over California and expected to remain overhead for another day or two. Therefore, with Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 80 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley will remain high at percentages of 50% to 80% over the weekend period. A disturbance moving through the Pacific Northwest and Northern California will keep temperatures in a steady-state environment with minimal day to day changes. By Wednesday, the area of weakness off the Southern California Coast will shift ashore and usher is a cooling trend with some cloud cover and a very slight chance of mountain showers. While warming temperatures will make fog development more challenging, a 20% to 30% chance of fog (locally dense) will exist over the rural areas near Hanford-Corcoran and near Merced. By Sunday and Monday, continued drying will lower the probability of fog to less than 10%. Latest long range ensemble are placing a moderate risk (40%-60%) of heavy precipitation over portions of Central California by next Saturday. The entire Central California will be under a slight risk (20%-40%) for the same time-frame. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior through 12Z Saturday. Patchy fog developing in the San Joaquin Valley between 12Z and 18Z Friday with a 20-30 percent chance for IFR/LIFR conditions. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford