125
FXUS64 KHUN 210444
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1044 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 927 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

 - Patchy dense fog reducing visibilities below a mile tonight
   into Friday morning.

 - Two rounds of storms Friday, the first during the early
   afternoon with a low chance of strong to severe storms Friday
   night into Saturday.

 - High chances for showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday
   with a low chance for strong to severe storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Friday)
Issued at 927 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The area of showers that pushed through this afternoon is now well
off to the north and east of the forecast area. In its wake, very
moist low levels and longer nights has resulted in some patchy
fog with visibilities below a mile. At this time, do not expect
dense fog to become widespread enough to warrant an advisory, but
this will be something to watch as we head through the overnight
hours. Outside of fog chances, cloud cover overhead will keep
temperatures very mild for this of year with lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. This is between 15-20 degrees above climatological
normals for late November.

The active weather pattern will continue through the day tomorrow
as the Tennessee Valley sits just south of a stalled warm front
across TN. As a sfc low pressure system across the Plains drifts
eastward on Friday, southerly flow in a moist environment will
result in a medium chance (40-60%) of showers during the late
morning in NW AL through the afternoon further east. Instability
is low, but a few thunderstorms can be expected to be embedded
within these showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday Night)
Issued at 927 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

As we head into Friday night, showers and storms are forecast to
develop along a prefrontal trough axis across MS and W TN. The
storms arrive into NW AL around midnight and then quickly move
east overnight. Looking at the 00z CAMs, there is quite a bit of
uncertainty in both storm coverage and intensity. This is likely
due to a lack of forecast instability as bulk shear is expected to
be between 40-50 knots with 0-3 km shear between 25-35 knots. If
a strong storm can develop in a low instability and weakly forced
environment, then they would be capable of producing damaging
winds and possibly a tornado or two. However, confidence at this
time of severe storms is low. Most likely scenario appears to be a
broken line of showers and storms weakening as it progresses east
through our local forecast area.

Light showers or drizzle may continue during the morning on
Saturday before a cold front sweeps through the area from NW to
SE. The post frontal airmass will not be much cooler, but some
drier air will filter in from the NW. As a result, dry weather is
forecast through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures both
Saturday and Sunday will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s with
overnight lows in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 927 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

On Monday, a deep upper level trough across the Western US with a
low pressure system centered over the Rockies will shift eastward
across the Plains. To the south of the low, a cold front will
push through the Tennessee Valley Monday night into Tuesday.
Medium to high (60-80%) chances for showers and storms are
forecast with the frontal passage. Something to keep on eye on for
this system is the potential for strong to severe storms. Right
now there is still too much disagreement in the medium range
guidance, but wind shear looks quite favorable for storms. However
once again the lack of instability may limit the severe
potential. Once the front clears the forecast area by the second
half of next week a much cooler and drier airmass arrives into the
Tennessee Valley. Afternoon highs only reach the low 60s on
Wednesday and then the low to mid 50s on Thursday with overnight
lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Fog, some locally dense has developed this evening across northern
AL. Expect reductions in visibilities at times at both HSV and
MSL. Fog should lift by morning with some mid levels clouds moving
overhead. Showers develop around lunchtime which will reduce both
visibilities and ceilings. And isolated thunderstorm is also
possible, but have left out of this update due to low confidence
in coverage. Additional showers and storms may impact far NW AL,
but timing appears just after the end of this TAF period at 06z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...GH