130
FXUS64 KHUN 251146
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
546 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1010 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

 - High chances for rain begin tonight through Tuesday afternoon.
   1-2" of rainfall accumulation through Tuesday evening.

 - A low chance of severe thunderstorms (Marginal Risk from SPC or
   1 out of 5) is forecast late Tuesday morning through mid
   Tuesday afternoon just ahead of a cold front. Damaging winds up
   to 60mph and a tornado are the primary threats.

 - Cooler temperatures moving in late this week (on and around
   Thanksgiving), with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
   Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A warm front is lifting north and eastward this morning as strong
southwesterly LLJ around 40kts continues to advect warm and moist
air into the region. Despite a lack of surface instability per
latest SPC mesoscale analysis, very marginal elevated instability
with the combination of strong effective shear has allowed for a
bowing line of storms to strengthen across portions of central
Alabama. Overall, the lack of surface instability and the low-
level inversion found on latest HRRR soundings leaves lower
confidence in strong to severe winds making it to the surface,
however, based on latest trends the best chances to observe
damaging wind gusts or even a brief spin-up over the next hour or
two will generally be from central Culman south and due east.

A bit of a challenging forecast sets up later Tuesday morning
into the afternoon hours as a cold front approaches the area and a
line of strong to severe storms is forecast to accompany this.
For now it still looks like the most favorable overlap of shear
and instability will be located to our south, but there is a
window of time where favorable conditions may line up enough to
support the risk for damaging winds and a tornado late tomorrow
morning through tomorrow afternoon, especially in north central
and northeast AL.

A few considerations will be how widespread the rain is late
tomorrow morning into the early afternoon and how much the near
sfc temperatures warm. If we have more periods of clearing between
storms and temperatures rise above what is expected, instability
will be higher and the risk for severe storms will increase.
Inversely, if the rain and dense cloud cover is more widespread
during the morning hours and temperatures are lower than expected,
the sfc based instability available will be lower than expected
and the risk for severe storms will be lower. For now, hi-res
guidance does support a period of time between noon and 6pm where
SBCAPE is forecast to rise above 500 J/kg across north central
and northeast AL with a >50% chance of SBCAPE above 1000 J/kg
across Cullman, Marshall, and DeKalb counties between 1-4pm. This
combined with bulk shear between 40-50kts and 0-1 and 0-3km SRH
between 200-300 m2/s2 will be the driving factor behind the risk
for damaging winds and a tornado or two. With all of that in mind,
be sure to monitor for updates frequently throughout the day and
have multiple ways to receive warnings.

We will also maintain a low risk for flooding as rainfall totals
between 0.75-1.75" are expected with isolated higher amounts up to
2". Given how dry we have been lately, we do feel that the ground
should be able to withstand that amount of rainfall without much
flooding if any at all.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Thunderstorms should come to an end from west to east by 6-7pm
tomorrow evening. A drier, cooler airmass will move in on
Wednesday with a secondary front shifting the flow to be more
northerly as high pressure becomes the more dominating influence.
High temperatures will struggle to climb above 60 degrees, with
clouds finally dispersing late in the day. Thanksgiving Day will
feature even colder conditions as highs struggle to reach 50
degrees under sunny skies and northwesterly winds. Be sure to
bring a jacket if spending time outdoors, especially overnight
Thursday into Friday morning when temps are forecast to dip into
the low to mid 20s area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

As we dive into the weekend, dry and warming conditions are forecast
under the influence of sfc high pressure residing over the Southeast
US. High temperatures are forecast to reach the 40s on Friday before
warming into the mid 50s by Sunday. Saturday night, sfc high
pressure begins to shift eastward as an upper level trough begins to
slowly push into the Mississippi Valley, bringing medium chances of
showers on Sunday and Monday. As an upper level closed low pushes
more eastward towards our area, a cold front is forecast to bring
increased shower chances (50-60%) ahead of it Monday evening into
Tuesday. Due to this system being almost a week out, we will have to
continue to monitor trends throughout the week. However, as of now,
looks to be showers with potentially heavy rainfall. If you have
post- holiday travel plans early next week, check back in for
forecast updates as we approach the weekend!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Showers and storms have spread across the region this morning,
with MVFR to IFR conditions associated with convection at times.
Latest surface observations around the region do suggest a brief
return to VFR conditions are possible as a lull in activity occurs
behind this mornings convection, however, additional scattered to
numerous showers and storms are expected to develop late morning
to mid day and continue into the afternoon. Additional MVFR to
IFR cigs are possible with this activity, and wind gusts up to
50kts cannot be ruled out in the event of severe activity. The
cold front is expected to progress through the area later this
afternoon with a return to VFR conditions this evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included all of north Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate risk for Much Above
Normal Precipitation for December 2nd. Precipitation exceeding
1.5 inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...99