158
FXUS64 KHUN 161622
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Cooler conditions today and tomorrow.

 - Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
   night through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

As of the late morning, a dry cold front has moved in a north to
south manner across the Tennessee Valley. It was located about
from along the TN/NC border to south of Cullman and Tupelo.
Drier air filtering from more to the north of has resulted in
clear conditions over TN/KY moving southward. 10 AM area
temperatures ranged from from the mid 60s to lower 70s, with NW
winds of 5-15 mph. As cooler air filters southward, temperatures
later today should not rise much more; in fact should actually
begin cooling in the early afternoon. Winds also could pick up to
10-20 mph with some gusts above 25 mph.

Under generally clear skies tonight, the cooler air will be more
evident. Temperatures this evening will quickly chill into the 40s
by 9/10 PM, then bottom out from the mid 30s the more sheltered
spots to lower 40s near larger bodies of water. Northerly winds of
5-15 mph early this evening should become light and variable in
the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

For Monday, dry conditions will continue as surface high pressure
over the region controls the general weather. Cooler temperatures
will continue, with highs in the 60s and light winds. Lows Mon
night should cool from near 40 east to 50 west. Clear skies
Tuesday morning should become partly cloudy in the afternoon, as
the weakening remnants of a system moves from the central Rockies
to the Appalachians. This system per some of the models could
bring light showers across KY/TN, and maybe far NW AL on Tuesday.
As the surface high moves east of the region, a SE-S wind will
resume. With a southerly flow and higher heights, high temps Tue
will be warmer, again back into the 70s. More unsettled weather
returns Tuesday night and on Wednesday, as more moisture and
instability brings lower end chances of showers and thunderstorms
to the Valley. Milder conditions are expected Tue night with lows
in the mid 50s to around 60. Unseasonably warm conditions are
expected Wednesday with highs from the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The long term forecast will be slightly more unsettled as a low
pressure system pushes into the western coast and translates east
across the county. A surface low with a trailing cold front and
attached warm front looks to accompany this feature and impact
our weather locally through the weekend. Along and ahead of the
passage of the cold front, cloudy conditions will plague the
local area from Wednesday through Friday. Low rain chances will
also be present (10-30 %) for areas north of the TN River. The
broad WSW flow will allow some moisture to return to the area
returning dew points to the 60s and nudging temps into the mid to
high 70s each day.

The front looks to pass on Friday however ensemble models remain
unresolved regarding specific timing and strength of the front.
While rain continues to look likely on Friday (50-70%),
thunderstorm chances look much more questionable. Ensembles show
favorable low and mid level shear however the persistent overcast
conditions may limit instability. The fine details will determine
our storm chances on Friday and unfortunately we will have to wait
a few more days for this time frame to be within HIRES model
coverage. Until then we will continue to monitor the trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

MVFR CIGs and wind shear concerns will diminish over the next few
hours as the cold front arrives. Behind the front, winds will
veer to become more northerly with wind gusts up to 15 kts and VFR
CIGs will return. Winds will slack with sunset and VFR conditions
will prevail through the rest of the TAF package.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...JMS