174
FXUS64 KHUN 081026
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
426 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1038 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

 - Medium/high (50-80%) chances for rain tonight into early
   Monday morning.

 - Subfreezing temperatures return Monday night before a gradual
   warming trend through midweek.

 - Confidence is increasing in the potential of very cold
   conditions by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 426 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

A mid-level shortwave trough (initially across the Arklatex) will
acquire a slight negative tilt as it lifts northeastward into the
Cumberland Plateau vicinity by 12Z and advances further into
coastal portions of VA/NC by late this afternoon. Although
strengthening deep-layer ascent ahead of this disturbance
instigated a swath of light stratiform rain that progressed across
our region yesterday evening and earlier this morning, this
precipitation has now spread eastward and out of the local
forecast area. However, a layer of low stratus clouds (based
between 500-1000 ft AGL) and some light mist will continue to
impact the region for the remainder of the morning, perhaps
leading to significant visibility reductions in elevated terrain.

As north-northwest winds gradually increase within a contracting
pressure gradient between a developing low off the southeastern
Atlantic Coast and a high over the Upper MS Valley/western Great
Lakes, the southward advection of drier air will improve
visibility conditions by mid-day. Based on current radar data, a
few lingering pockets of light rain will be possible through early
this afternoon (mainly in the northeastern corner of the forecast
area), and it would not be surprising to also see a few snow
flurries in this region, as well. With the stratus layer not
expected to dissipate until this evening, afternoon highs will
once again be in the l-m 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Dry conditions, with a gradual warming trend will occur Tuesday
and Wednesday as high pressure at the surface builds into the
region. Ample sunshine and surface winds gradually veering to the
south will help to modify the cool, continental air mass
somewhat. As a result, high temperatures will reach the low to mid
50s on Tuesday and the upper 50s on Wednesday (with a few
locations possibility reaching the 60 degree mark). A shortwave
trough will shift from the Ohio Valley into the Central
Appalachians, forcing a weak front into portions of KY/TN. While
this boundary will likely hang up north of the area, some cloud
cover and some very low (10-20%) chances for light rain are
forecast on Thursday as this shortwaves passes through the area.
Amplification of a broad upper trough over the Great Lakes will
eventually lead to additional shortwaves transversing the area and
a much colder air mass moving in. More on this in the section
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A couple additional shortwaves will traverse the southern flank of
a broad trough that will be amplifying over the eastern CONUS.
These subtle shortwaves will bring reinforcing shots colder, drier
air into the region. Highs on Friday will peak in the upper 40s
to lower 50s, with overnight lows dropping into the lower 20s.
Saturday and Sunday looks to be even chillier as high temperatures
will struggle to climb above the 40 degree mark both days -- with
overnight lows falling into the upper Teens to lower 20s both
nights. Any winds at all will result in even lower wind chill
values, especially Saturday night along the higher terrain. In
summary below normal temperatures will be favored late this week
into the very early part of next week which could favor temperatures
at least 10-15 degrees below normal for mid December. Review your
winter weather safety rules and prepare to bundle up!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

IFR conditions will prevail for much of the overnight hours due to
low ceilings and reduced visibilities from -RA. Expect very
minimal improvement until mid/late morning when ceilings are at
least progged to rise above to climb above 1 kft. Cloud cover
will continue to break up, but BKN decks of clouds between 2-3 kft
(MVFR conditions) will prevail through the afternoon and evening
hours. Winds will also become gusty out of the NW during the day
on Monday before weakening to under 10 kts late in the day.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...AMP