501
FXUS64 KHUN 231215
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
615 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 448 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Mostly dry weather forecast through Monday morning.

 - High chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into
   Tuesday night, with a low chance of severe thunderstorms (1 out
   of 5 Risk from SPC). This risk of severe storms may increase
   as we get closer to the event.

 - Cooler temperatures moving in late next week (on and around
   Thanksgiving).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 440 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A post-frontal trough axis is sweeping south from southern
Tennessee towards central Alabama tonight. It has kept winds up
just enough to help ensure with widespread cloud cover fog doesn`t
really develop over northern Alabama and southern middle

This will bring some colder and drier air into northern Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee during today. Instead of seeing
highs in the lower to mid 70s, we should see highs struggle to
make it into the lower to mid 60s for highs. These temperatures
will be tempered not just by cold air advection, but the morning
cloud cover before it pushes fairly quickly into central AL and
GA and dissipates by 9 or 10 AM CST. Northerly winds around 5 mph
should increase a bit to between 5 and 10 mph this afternoon.
Lowered dewpoints, looking at forecast soundings, due to some
mixing of drier air aloft that should occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 448 AM PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Models fairly quickly push the center of the surface high east
late this afternoon into tonight. This should help to put in place
strong warm air and moisture advection upstream of the area.
Despite that, in the lower boundary layer, drier air will be slow
to modify. Light winds on the west side of the surface high will
likely produce good radiational cooling conditions. As a result,
lows will likely drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s overnight.

As the high moves further east and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on
Monday, return flow around it from the Gulf Coast begins to make
it northward into our area in earnest. Despite increasing clouds
in the morning and mostly cloudy conditions by the afternoon,
strong warm air advection should push temperatures into the upper
60s to lower 70s in the afternoon. Strong low level moisture
advection is expected as well as the upper level disturbance races
east into eastern Kansas and Missouri. A cold front extends SSW
from this feature aloft into eastern Texas Monday afternoon. This
front will be the weather maker for northern Alabama and southern
middle Tennessee as it pushes east Monday night into Tuesday.

Very strong forcing is shown in models ahead of this front both
Monday night and on Tuesday over the southeast. At this time, it
looks like models are clustering around the main portion of this
forcing moving east and approaching NW ALabama between midnight on
Monday and 6 AM on Tuesday. This strong warm air advection should
push lows higher into the mid to upper 50s. This forcing then
pushes east through the day on Tuesday into Georgia.

Models are continuing to show good shear, surface based instability
(200 to 1000 J/KG - highest near and south of the TN river),
steep lapse rates, ample helicity (200-300 m2/s2), and low wet-
bulb zero heights developing ahead of this cold front. The
strongest forcing seems to concentrate over northern Alabama and
southern middle Tennessee between 3 AM and noon on Tuesday. Right
now, given some uncertainties in exact timing and the northward
extent of the better instability, expectations of severe weather
are still on the low side. However, could see some portion of the
area (maybe southern portion) see an increased risk on Tuesday as
we get closer. Given the parameters, all modes of severe weather
seem possible if some does occur. Widespread rainfall amounts of
1-2" are forecast across the region -- but given how dry we`ve
been of late, don`t expect much in the way of flooding concerns
with this activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 927 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Rain showers will taper off Tuesday night, with an appreciable air
mass change in wake of this front. High temperatures will drop to
the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday and the upper 40s to
lower 50s on Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) and Black Friday as a
cooler, drier continental air mass filters into the region. Thus,
despite clear and sunny conditions each day, breezy northerly
winds will keep temperatures on the chilly side -- and highs below
normal heading through the remainder of the Thanksgiving holiday
weekend and the month of November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Not much change in the forecast. MVFR CIGS have enveloped both
terminals overnight. This will continue through the morning hours.
After 18Z, guidance does show cloud cover dissipating over the
terminals. It may remain in place longer in Mississippi and
Arkansas. VFR conditions will be in place after 18Z with clear
skies.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW