557
FXUS64 KHUN 022240
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
440 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 958 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2025

 - Conditions will be favorable for patchy freezing fog late
   tonight/early Wednesday morning.

 - Chances for light precipitation return Thursday morning and
   continue through Friday. A brief wintry mix will be possible
   (especially in southern middle TN/near the AL/TN border)
   before temperatures increase after sunrise Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 958 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Widespread stratus between 1000 and 2000 feet primarily is
entrenched across much of the eastern CONUS. The cold front that
brought us rainfall overnight has pushed southeast into central
Alabama at this time. Colder and drier air continues to move into
the area from the NNW behind this atmospheric feature. NNW winds
are primarily between 5 and 10 mph with some gusts to between 15
and 20 mph. Expect winds not to change much through the afternoon
hours.

Mixing into the early evening hours should keep winds mainly
between 5 and 10 mph. After midnight winds may become light and
variable in portions of NW Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
This will likely lead to some fog development. However, just how
long the cloud cover lingers tonight will have a big impact on how
widespread and how dense it will become. For now, given
uncertainties concerning cloud cover and winds, only including
patchy fog for now.

It will be colder again tonight, but again cloud cover may keep
lows from dropping below the lower to mid 20s. Winds chills won`t
be alot lower, given the expected weakening of the surface winds
after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Zonal flow will build into the southeast Wednesday through
Thursday morning. This will mean a slight warming trend builds
over the area with afternoon highs climbing back into the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

As another cold front develops that stretches from a large upper
low over SE Canada to its southwest, cloud cover will build back
into the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The
atmospheric column remains too dry though over the Tennessee
Valley for any precipitation.

A surface low moves east from central Texas into the western Gulf
Thursday afternoon. This will likely bring some rain chances back
into the area from the southwest. Mainly light rain is expected.
Models suggest evaporative cooling will occur on the north side
of this low into northern Alabama Thursday night. As the forcing
strengthens over northern AL and southern middle TN, rain will
likely change over to snow or sleet (with the warm nose
oscillating between 2 and 5 degrees not sure which it will be).
For now included snow in the forecast for southern middle TN and
areas near and just south of the TN/AL border Thursday evening
until around midnight. Given ground temperatures and air
temperatures, not sure we will see any actual accumulation of snow
or sleet. Expect most of this to melt as or shortly after it
falls. However, we will need to keep an eye on this period in case
there is a delay in cloud cover and more cooling can occur before
the stronger lift arrives.

Expect temperatures to warm during the day on Friday after 6 AM,
changing all precipitation back over to rain. The main forcing
pushes southeast of the area in most guidance during the day on
Friday. However light to moderate rain will likely continue into
the late morning or early afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

With little change in the thermodynamic properties of the
boundary layer and another amplifying 500-mb trough predicted to
drop into the MS Valley by 12Z Saturday, clouds and perhaps some
sprinkles of rain may continue for much of the region, but should
end throughout the day on Saturday as the trough axis shifts
eastward and a drier airmass enters the region.

During the Sunday-Monday timeframe, there is considerable
uncertainty regarding the path and speed of an upstream clipper
system that will quickly progress from the central Plains into the
southeastern U.S. Present indications are that southerly return
flow ahead of this system will begin early Sunday morning, with
cloudy skies and perhaps some showers possible later in the day.
Clouds may continue on Sunday night and perhaps into Monday as
northwest flow in the wake of this system draws a colder/drier
airmass southeastward into the region once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 439 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR ceilings will be present at the start of the period and
linger through the night. After 6Z ceiling may bounce between MVFR
and IFR. Likewise, fog is also possible early tomorrow morning
which could locally lower terminal visibilities. Due to the
ongoing cloud cover we currently have low confidence in fog
formation. The most likely time frame for any fog would be from
10-14Z. We will continue to monitor this trend and amend as
necessary. Any fog that does form should burn off by mid morning
with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the TAF
period.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RAD