885
FXUS64 KHUN 071920
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
120 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

 - A low chance for severe thunderstorms is forecast this evening.
   Damaging winds is the primary hazard, with a very low chance of
   a tornado.

 - Blustery north winds will begin to usher sharply colder air
   arriving on Sunday. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph are expected.

 - Near record or record cold temperatures are forecast Sunday
   night into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 120 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Not too much change from previous thinking this morning. Bulk
low and deep layer shear, especially over TN, remain favorable for
supercells and a severe weather risk if sustained updrafts can
become established later today. A band of thunderstorms has
already developed in northern middle TN into KY, and will likely
persist and build southwest with time into increasing CAPE over
western TN. These will be the thunderstorms that the CAMs have
been forecasting to drop southeast into the TN valley this
evening. Timing appears to be similar to previous thinking,
entering northwest AL into southern middle TN around 00-02Z, and
sinking southeast and out of the area by 06-07Z.


.Previous Discussion...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 939 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Low clouds and some fog was spreading northward this morning and
has reached the TN River. Continued low level moisture advection
will keep clouds in place through most of the day, which should
limit destabilization. Models continue to indicate higher CAPE
values will develop well to our northwest where steeper lapse
rates compensate for less surface heating. Most CAMs indicate a
band of thunderstorms developing across northern middle into
southwest TN by mid to late afternoon, which then slide southeast
into southern middle TN and north AL this evening. The risk of
severe storms remains fairly low given the limited CAPE, but deep
layer bulk shear will be sufficient if more vigorous updrafts are
able to develop and sustain. The loss of heating early this
evening after sunset may tend to limit the threat as well. The
better -divQ associated with the OH shortwave in the OH valley
will remain to our north with more channeled vorticity advection
over the TN valley. In any event, timing of the thunderstorms will
run from 01-07Z from northwest to southeast in our area tonight.
After highs in the lower 70s, lows will dip only into the lower to
middle 50s. Low clouds and perhaps some fog will develop late
tonight due to light winds and with any clearing behind the
rainfall that occurs tonight.

&&
&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 939 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Saturday will be the last mild day before an Arctic cold front
arrives Sunday morning. Highs will reach the lower to middle 70s.
There is a low chance of a few showers Saturday night as the cold
front arrives. Winds will shift to the northwest and increase
steadily as mixing ensues Sunday morning. A 5-6 mb pressure
gradient across the forecast area will result in gusty north
winds. Gusts of 25-30 mph will certainly add a biting chill to the
air as temperatures remain nearly steady in the upper 40s to lower
50s, before falling into the lower 40s around sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1021 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Latest extended range model consensus suggests that the axis of
an amplified mid/upper-level longwave trough will cross the local
forecast area on Monday. Although with varying degrees of
intensity, nearly all guidance also indicates that a rather potent
vort max (embedded within the base of the trough) will dig
southeastward from the Upper TN Valley into the southern
Appalachians, providing at least modest support for synoptic scale
ascent during the morning hours. In the low-levels, strong NW
flow will be maintained for much of the period from Sunday night
into Monday by a sharp pressure gradient between a deepening low
along the coast of New England and an arctic high shifting
southeastward across the southern Great Plains. This combination
should yield a vast coverage of low stratus clouds and perhaps
some light snow showers (especially for the northeastern corner of
the CWFA, where orientation of boundary layer streamlines will
result in favorable orographic lift along the Cumberland Plateau).
Regardless of snow, it will be mostly cloudy, cold and blustery
for the entire region, with the combination of temps in the m-u
20s and NW winds of 10-15 MPH (with stronger gusts) yielding
morning wind chills in the m-u teens. Daytime highs in the
u30s-l40s (offered by blended guidance) may also be several
degrees too warm depending on the eventual coverage of clouds.

As the center of the rapidly modifying arctic high settles across
the Lower MS Valley Monday night, conditions will become highly
favorable for radiational cooling. Although a few high clouds may
return early Tuesday morning in NW flow aloft, dewpoints in the
m-u teens suggest that a hard/killing freeze is likely to occur
with lows in the upper teens-lower 20s in outlying areas (away
from large water sources). Present indications are that this
particular outbreak of cold air will be intense but brief, as the
onset of southwesterly flow in the low-levels will initiate a
notable warming trend beginning Tuesday when afternoon highs will
rise into the u40s-l50s. Temps will continue to rebound through
the end of the period, with highs returning to the l-m 60s by
Thursday as lows rise into the u30s-l40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Ceilings of 010-020 agl (MVFR) will scatter and/or lift back into
the VFR category early this afternoon. A band of SHRA and +TSRA
will arrive this evening from 01-06Z from northwest to southeast.
A brief period of gusty winds will occur with the TS along with
lowered visibility in +RA. Ceilings of 020-030agl (MVFR) will
redevelop by 07-09Z and slowly lift and scatter back to VFR by
~15Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...17