229
FXUS64 KHUN 111749
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1149 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - Record Daily Low Maximum Temperatures were set at both
   Huntsville International Airport(38 degrees) and Muscle Shoals
   Airport (41) yesterday.

 - Temperatures will warm up through the week and into the
   weekend.

 - Some rainfall could return late Sunday night into early next
   week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Another cool start to the day with lows earlier this morning
dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s primarily. A few warmer
temperatures were seen near the Tennessee River. Under clear
skies, temperatures have climbed into the upper 30s to lower 40s
just before 11 AM. Though via an old rule of thumb based off 10 AM
temperatures would indicate lows might be a bit cooler than
previous forecast thought. However, models do show some an
increasingly strong low level jet (evident between 925 mb and 850
mb) from the southeast developing over the area late this morning
into the afternoon hours. This will likely increase warm air
advection substantially this afternoon, especially over NW AL.
Temperatures were made slightly lower east of the I-65 corridor,
especially in higher elevations based on temperatures seen at 10
AM. However, further west believe warm air advection will play a
bigger role and highs may climb a touch above previous thinking
into the 51 to 55 degree range.

Morning soundings showed dry air aloft was in place. Not sure NBM
is picking up on the mixing that could occur and lowering of
dewpoints as a result this afternoon. ADVLAV, RAP,CONSshort, and
HRRR seem to have a better handle on this. Lowered afternoon
dewpoints as a result from NBM forecast. This will drop afternoon
RH values into the 20 to 25% range this afternoon. Winds have
already picked up to between 6 and 12 mph with gusts to around 18
mph. These winds will likely pick up a bit more this afternoon and
evening to between 10 and 15 mph gusting up to 25 mph. Be careful
if conducting any outdoor burning today, though Red Flag
conditions are not expected with fairly moist fuel conditions in
place.

Winds tonight should stay up between 5 and 10 mph with gusts of
15 to 20 mph possible. This will keep fog from developing. It will
be cool with lows dropping into the 30s to around 40 degrees in
most locations. Winds, continued warm air advection, and some weak
low level moisture advection will help keep lows more bearable. In
typical well protected valley locations (mainly east of the I-65
corridor), some lows could still drop to between 30 and 36
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

An area of high pressure will remain entrenched over the central
and eastern Gulf coastal states through Wednesday. A weak and dry
cold front will swing southeast towards the Tennessee Valley
during that period. It might bring a few high clouds to the area
on Wednesday. However, the good forcing and colder air will remain
over the Ohio Valley and points eastward.

Though an extension (more a convergence area aloft) will push
south into the surface ridge, it will have little impact. In fact,
with low level flow from the Gulf coast area and either neutral
or warm air advection in place, low temperatures and highs will
warm significantly over the southeast into the day on Wednesday.
Highs should rebound into the lower to mid 60s on Wednesday with
lows Wednesday night only dropping into the 35 to 42 degree range.

Though the surface high will remain in place Wednesday night into
Thursday, a shortwave aloft around 700 mb develops over the
Mid/Upper Plains states. This feature moves southeast towards the
Tennessee Valley during the middle/end of the week. This should
increase cloud cover over the area to some degree. Several models
indicate some mostly cloudy conditions could spread into the area
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Thinking this cloud cover
will not be very thick, but it could keep highs from reaching the
lower 70s in many locations. For now kept close to guidance with
highs in the mid to upper 60s. At this point the moisture does not
look very deep in the atmosphere and forcing with that
disturbance weakens as it gets closer to the area, so left out any
rainfall chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Upper ridging and surface high pressure look to largely dominate
the Tennessee Valley for the first half of the long term period.
However, by late in the weekend and into early next week, a
shortwave trough looks to traverse the Midwest and into the Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system is shown to move
over the Great Lakes and New England Sunday into Monday, with
another low pressure system developing over the lower Plains
moving into the ArkLaTex region to start the new work week. What
this means for local sensible weather is no rain through Saturday,
but a gradual warming of temperatures. Highs in the lower to mid
70s with lows in the 50s are forecast by Saturday/Saturday night,
a large change from earlier this week! However, by Sunday and
Monday is when chances of showers may return. We`ll be tracking
the trajectory and trends with regards to the aforementioned low
pressure system over the ArkLaTex early next week, as this will
have a significant impact on our rain chances. Stay tuned for
updates!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will remain in place through the TAF period. SW
winds around 10 gusting to 20 knots this afternoon will lessen to
between 5 and 10 knots with gusts to around 15 knots. These
breezy conditions will keep fog from developing at either
terminal.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...KTW