233
FXUS64 KHUN 220957
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
357 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 748 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Medium chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, with a very
   low chance of damaging wind.

 - Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday
   night into Tuesday night, with a low chance of severe
   thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Scattered heavier showers and a few thunderstorms continue to
develop just southeast of a boundary pushing south into northern
Alabama at this time. Any storms that have developed have had a
hard time producing very intense/deep updrafts. Despite some mixed
layer CAPE (mainly west of the I-65 corridor) around 500 J/KG or
less. Shear remains strong, but forcing (though it has pushed
into the area over the last few hours) is not very deep or
strong. Another factor that will continue to inhibit very strong
updrafts with any storms that form overnight.

Expect this trend to continue into the morning hours, with
coverage decreasing from NW to SE after daybreak. As the center of
the upper shortwave moves east into the middle Atlantic states, a
trailing trough axis and cold front will drop southeast through
into northern Alabama this morning. Since the cold front won`t
move south of northern Alabama until during the evening hours,
some sunshine and clearing later in the day along with continued
warm air advection should allow temperatures to climb into the 70
to 75 degree range in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 748 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

At this time, precipitation is not anticipated Saturday evening.
Temperatures will dip into the middle to upper 40s for lows
Sunday morning. As a 5h ridge axis shifts east into the MS Valley
on Sunday, surface high pressure will expand and move into the OH
and TN valleys. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s with dew points
only in the 40s. As the high shifts into the eastern CONUS on
Monday and a stout upper trough enters the central and southern
Plains, southerly flow will develop inducing warm advection. This
will boost high temperatures back into the upper 60s to lower 70s
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 748 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

As the trough enters the MS Valley late Monday night, a 40-50kt
8h low level jet develops across the lower MS Valley. Dew points
in the 50s to lower 60s advect back into the region with a band or
line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front. Once again,
weak lapse rates and limited CAPE values are indicated in
ensemble forecasts. Thus, confidence in a severe risk remain low
at this time. The cold front will bring a distinct cool down from
Wednesday into Friday. Highs on Thanksgiving Day and Friday will
only reach the lower to middle 50s (and cooler atop the higher
elevations). Morning lows Friday morning are projected to be in
the upper 20s to around 30.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Ceilings will remain below 010agl(IFR) for all areas and below
005agl (LIFR) for portions of the area. There remains a low to
medium chance of SHRA and a low chance of TSRA from 06-11Z. The
wind will shift to the west behind a trough axis around 15-17Z
which will bring ceilings above 030agl (VFR). Clearing should
followed during the afternoon hours.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17