Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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591 FXUS64 KHUN 132022 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 222 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 954 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 - Temperatures will warm each day into the weekend with highs returning to the 70s on Friday. - Low to medium rain chances return early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 A building ridge located to our west has allowed for warmer conditions today, with some locations across north AL making it into the low to mid 70s this afternoon. A subtle increase in high cirrus from the northwest has also been observed and will likely persist through the evening hours. Temps will cool down into the low to mid 40s tonight thanks to clearing skies and light winds promoting good radiational cooling. Patchy to areas of dense fog will be possible once again tonight, especially in and around river valleys. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 954 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to amplify to our west into the weekend and sfc high pressure will slowly shift off to the northeast. This shift will turn low level winds to the south, bringing even warmer temps to the area as we head into the weekend. Highs will top out in the low to mid 70s both Friday and Saturday with lows in the upper 40s to 50s each night. We should see plenty of sunshine each day as well as we remain in a relatively dry airmass. Gradient flow will intensify ahead of an upper disturbance progged to track through the Great Lakes region late this weekend, and southwest winds will become breezy Saturday afternoon in response to this. We will remain below Wind Advisory criteria, but gusts could reach up to 20-25mph at times. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1044 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Latest extended range guidance suggests that a deep mid/upper- level trough will extend from eastern Canada into the northeastern CONUS on Sunday/Sunday night, with northwest flow aloft of 40-50 knots in place across the local forecast area. At the surface, the southwestern portion of a cold front (attached to a deepening low off the coast of New England) will advance southeastward through the region, perhaps bringing a period of low clouds and some pockets of light rain late Sunday morning, followed by a wind shift to the north during the afternoon, with highs in the u60s-l70s. There is considerably uncertainty regarding how far south a drier continental airmass will penetrate into the TN Valley Sunday afternoon/evening before the front begins returns northward, making the overnight low temp forecast in the m-u 40s quite uncertain. Beginning Monday (and continuing through Wednesday), a strengthening subtropical ridge will build northward from central America and should become centered across the southern Gulf by the end of the period, downstream from a slow-moving but amplified trough digging across the southwestern CONUS. Along the northern rim of the expanding 500-mb ridge, an initially compact shortwave trough will track across the central Plains on Monday but should weaken and accelerate eastward as it enters increasingly confluent flow between the trough to our northeast and ridge to our south on Monday night/Tuesday. In light of this, it is not surprising that the global models offer a wide variety of solutions regarding both the path and speed of a weak surface low related to this disturbance and at what point (if at all) a weak cold front attached to it will cross the region. For this reason we will retain low-medium (20-40%) POPs in the forecast from Monday night-Tuesday night, which represents the potential time range for frontal passage. With surface dewpoints in the lower 60s supporting at least weak instability/CAPE, both showers and thunderstorms will be possible should the front eventually make it into our region. Both deep- layer and low-level shear will also be marginally conducive for storm organization (with mid-level westerly flow of 35-45 knots and a WSW low-level of 20-30 knots), and we will continue to monitor this system for at least a minor risk of severe thunderstorms. In the event that the front does indeed push through the region, a brief intrusion of slightly drier/cooler continental air can be expected on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at both terminals with a low chance for patchy fog tonight. Confidence in fog was too low to include in TAFs at this time. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1044 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation: The Climate Prediction Center has included much of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation for November 20th. Precipitation exceeding 1-2 inches is possible during this period. More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...25