915
FXUS64 KHUN 152310
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
510 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1019 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

 - Sub-freezing overnight temperatures continue tonight.

 - Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms return on
   Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

No changes were made to the forecast as the previous discussion
still holds. Temperatures have finally climbed above freezing
underneath sunny skies. However, CAA has limited the amount of
warming holding afternoon highs in the lower 40s.

Previous Discussion:
Another cold night is forecast tonight. With a very dry airmass in
place, temperatures after sunset will plummet quickly down into
the low to mid 20s. Winds will be light this evening so wind
chills are not expected to be much colder than the actual
temperature. Therefore, no cold weather products are needed at
this time. Regardless it will still be chilly tonight so bundle up
in multiple layers if heading outside.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1019 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

As we head towards the middle of the work week, high pressure will
remain situated across most of the Southeast. The deep trough that
brought the Arctic airmass in this weekend will finally shift east
of the local forecast area allowing for upper level ridging to
push in from the west. This will result in a gradual warming trend
with afternoon highs on Tuesday in the lower 50s and then the mid
to upper 50s on Wednesday. With the sfc flow becoming more
southerly and mid level flow more westerly, expect some moisture
advection. This will help keep the overnight lows from dropping
below freezing with the temperatures Tuesday night dipping down
into the mid 30s and only the lower 40s on Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 934 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

A stout upper trough looks to traverse the Mississippi River Valley
Thursday afternoon and move into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
Thursday evening. Surface high pressure will quickly push east over
the Atlantic by midweek as a low pressure system develops over the
Plains and swings up into the Great Lakes region early Thursday. A
couple of days of return flow over the Tennessee Valley will help
temperatures increase into the lower 60s with dew points in the 50s
by Thursday. Guidance indicates that the greatest dynamics associated
with the low pressure system will be to our north; however, models
do show ample bulk shear and a stout upper jet over northern Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee. A big question is going to be
regarding instability, the energy for storms. Will there be enough
instability, especially surface-based, for severe storms? Currently,
guidance indicates modest instability and most being elevated.
Therefore, at this point, general thunderstorm development is
certainly plausible Thursday/Thursday night, along with medium to
high chances (40-80%) of showers. We`ll need to continue to monitor
trends for the potential of stronger storms, but confidence is low at
this time. Stay tuned for updates!

Once the cold front (associated with the aforementioned system)
progresses south of the local area late Thursday night/early Friday,
cooler air will filter into the region. Highs are forecast to top out
in the 40s on Friday with lows in the lower to mid 30s. This cool
down won`t last long, as another cold front approaches the Tennessee
Valley Saturday into Sunday. A warm up is therefore anticipated
(highs in the lower 60s and lows in the 40s), along with our next
chance at rain Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions and clear skies will be the theme through the TAF
period. Light to calm winds overnight will become southwesterly
and hover around 5 knots by early Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26