875
FXUS63 KICT 032016
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
216 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy very light snow flurries and/or sprinkles possible
  through Thursday. Absolutely no accumulation or adverse
  impacts expected.

- Chilly tonight through Thursday, with single digit wind chills
  early Thursday.

- Moderating temperatures Friday through Saturday, with another
  substantial cool down Saturday night through Sunday night.

- Possible light precipitation late Saturday through Sunday.

- Above average temperatures probable Tuesday and Wednesday of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

PRECIPITATION:

A deep cold frontal zone moving south through the region amidst weak-
modest large scale lift ahead of an approaching western CONUS upper
trough could support patchy very light snow flurries and/or
sprinkles through Thursday. For tonight, thinking they will be
primarily the first half of the night, and focusing mainly over
southern Kansas Thursday. Weak to modest lift and very limited
moisture will prevent any accumulation or adverse impacts.

For late Saturday through Sunday...Could see some light
precipitation late Saturday through Sunday, as a shortwave moves
southeast through the region along with an associated cold front.
The GFS continues to be a tad more bullish with PoPs compared to the
ECMWF and CMC, although the latter models are showing a bit more
precipitation than yesterday. If trends continue, wouldn`t be
surprised if some PoPs are eventually introduced into the forecast,
including some light wintry precipitation. Either way, a major storm
system looks unlikely, with any potential impacts likely more of a
nuisance. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming
days.

TEMPERATURES:

Arctic high pressure will continue to plunge south into Mid-America
tonight and Thursday, supporting chilly well below average
temperatures and breezy/gusty northeast winds. Early Thursday
morning will likely be the coldest of the next 7-10 days, with
single digit and low teens wind chills likely, and Thursday highs in
the 30s.

Moderating temperatures are likely Friday and Saturday, before
another cold front brings temperatures down again Sunday and Monday,
but probably not quite as chilly as tonight through Thursday.

Taking a look ahead into next week...model consensus supports a
return to above average temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, as a
stout area of upper level high pressure gradually builds east out of
the western CONUS. At this time, daytime highs in the 50s and
overnight lows in the 30s look probable.

Beyond that into late next week and next weekend, model solutions
greatly diverge, with a large range in temperatures. Per NBM
percentiles, the upper range is in the upper 50s for daytime
highs, while the lower range is in the low-mid 30s. The battle
is likely between solutions attempting to build the upper level
high pressure further east over Mid-America (warmer), and
solutions attempting to dig central-eastern CONUS upper
troughing (colder). Consequently, forecast uncertainty is high
surrounding temperatures, although mostly dry weather looks
probable.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

SCT-BKN MVFR clouds will gradually spread south across the area
this afternoon and evening, as cold advection commences in wake
of a cold front. Breezy/gusty north-northeast winds will also be
common in wake of the front. Thinking the MVFR conditions will
gradually give way to VFR conditions from north to south this
evening, as drier low-level air moves in.

Precipitation-wise, cannot rule out patchy light snow flurries
and/or sprinkles, mainly from late this afternoon through the
first half of the night areawide, and then again over southern
Kansas Thursday, as shortwave energy approaching from the west
interacts with the deep cold frontal zone across the Heartland.
This activity will be very light, with absolutely no snow
accumulation or adverse impacts expected due to weak lift and
very limited moisture.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK