801
FXUS63 KICT 110433
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1033 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool again today with a warming trend starting on Tuesday,
  persisting through the week.

- Dry conditions will persist through the work week with rain
  chances increasing over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Currently, a deep upper level trough is digging across the eastern
U.S. with ridging building over the Desert Southwest. At the surface
this translates to a 1038mb high pressure centered over the Central
and Southern Plains. Arctic air lingers over the region leading to
highs today remaining about 15 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Afternoon high temperatures today will top out in the lower to
middle 40s with light and variable winds.

As we move forward into tonight and tomorrow, the upper level trough
to the east will begin to lift out over the East Coast and ridging
from the west will build over the Plains. At the surface, a
tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezy southwesterly winds
beginning early Tuesday morning and lasting through about midday. A
warming trend will commence beginning tonight with overnight lows
only falling into the lower to middle 30s. Afternoon highs through
the week will end up 10-15 degrees above normal with temperatures
generally ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows
will remain in the 40s and 50s each night. With high pressure
dominating the weather patter this week, mostly sunny and dry
conditions are expected.

The next feature to impact the forecast area will arrive on Saturday
as a shortwave trough traverses the Southern Plains. There is still
some discrepancy as to where this system will track exactly. Current
model guidance takes the surface low just to our south which puts us
solidly in rain chances (40-50%) on Saturday and Sunday as the low
lifts into the Mississippi Valley. If this system passes a little
further south, as previous model runs have depicted, our rain
chances will likely be lower. Along with rain chances, this system
will also bring a cold front to the area on Saturday night. This
will bring cooler, near normal temperatures to the region for Sunday
and Monday with highs only reaching into the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Low level wind shear will affect the area overnight as a low
level jet axis slides slowly eastward. Meanwhile VFR conditions
will prevail over the area for the next 24hrs with a wind shift
line dropping southward during the day. This will cause the
winds to switch to the northwest.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...CDJ