132
FXUS62 KILM 110643
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
143 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through early this morning, bringing
in some chilly air for this afternoon. A warmup to seasonable
weather Friday will continue into a slightly mild Saturday.
Arctic air arrives later Sunday, ushering in the coldest air
yet this season through Monday before moderation begins on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry CFP to occur during these pre-dawn Thu hrs...resulting
in SW winds becoming NW by/after daybreak Thu. Only dealing
with FEW/SCT thin/opaque Cirrus thru this morning. Will see CAA
NW winds occasionally gusting up to 15 to 20 mph this morning
that should diminish in gustiness by dusk, with winds further
dropping to calm conditions during tonight. This aided by a
relaxed sfc pg becoming established and a sfc based inversion
developing after sunset. The 5H trof axis will swing to either
overhead or just off the ILM CWA Coast later this afternoon thru
tonight. This could lead to SCT/BKN high altocu or cirrus
affecting the FA, mainly across the northern periphery of the
ILM CWA as a clipper-type system passes by north of the FA. Max
temps today around 50 with tonights lows upper 20s to low 30s.
Will see temps dive around sunset as rad cooling occurs, then
levels off after midnight and holds at the prescribed lows if
the sfc based inversion remains strong enough given the
approaching clipper system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Overall quiet weather in the short term forecast, with a brief
warming trend in play. Zonal flow aloft sticks around Friday and
most of Saturday, while high pressure along the Gulf coast slips
eastward towards the Atlantic. Highs Friday in the mid-to-upper 50s,
still remaining on the cool side for mid-December. Lows Friday night
generally in the lower 30s inland to near 40 at the coast. Highs
Saturday in the upper 50s to near 60, just a degree or two below
normal for most.

Moisture starts picking up more Saturday night, as an upper low near
or just north of the Great Lakes region starts to deepen and push
northeastward into Quebec. This should only manifest in some
increased cloud cover in the mid-levels, but it may be enough to
squeeze out some drizzle before sunrise Sunday morning. Lows in the
low-to-mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As the upper low continues to strengthen, it deeply amplifies the
trough that dives into the Carolinas, creating one of the strongest
cold fronts we`ve seen all year (at least, by temperature and
dewpoint standards). Forecast guidance still likes the faster
progression that we`ve seen over the last forecast cycle or two,
compared to what the slower trends were in the preceding days.
Looks like this front will sweep through the area during the day
Sunday, which creates a headache for the temperature forecast.
Temperatures will follow the usual diurnal pattern to start the
day, and then that pattern will quickly reverse itself as the
front moves through. The timing on this is still tricky. For
now, official forecast reflects high temperatures ranging from
the upper 40s in the far inland areas to near 60 in the southern
Grand Strand region. Still a pretty uncertain forecast though,
as there could be a 5-8 degree swing in either direction. Hoping
to gain more confidence in the next forecast cycle.

As the front pushes closer to the coast, freezing temperatures will
be chasing after the remaining moisture. They might overlap just
enough for some flurries late Sunday afternoon/evening for the Cape
Fear region, a low-impact phenomenon. Breezy Sunday night with very
bitterly cold air in place. Widespread lows in the lower 20s look
likely, with the upper teens a decent possibility (30-40%) in the
Pee Dee and inland NC coastal plain.

Highs Monday may not even hit 40 degrees, which would be 20-22
degrees below normal for mid-December.

Air mass modification begins Monday night, continuing through
Wednesday as the Arctic high pressure begins to develop a Southern
drawl and push into the Atlantic. Highs in the upper 40s Tuesday
become the mid-to-upper 50s by Wednesday. Lows still remain in the
20s for most on a slower increase.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR to dominate the 06Z, 24 hr, TAF Issuance Period. Other than
cirrus ahead of the cold front overnight, skies will generally
be SKC. Gusty SW-WSW winds, will veer to the W-WNW around 10
g15 kt overnight and further veer to the NW 10-15 kt g15-20kt
later Thu morning thru the aftn. CAA becomes neutral and the sfc
pg relaxes by sunset allowing NW-W winds to diminish to 5 kt or
less, becoming calm at times after 00Z Fri.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR through the extended
period. Dry WFP Fri followed by a strong (Arctic) AFP Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...A Small Craft Advisory to remain in effect
thru mid-morning as CAA and a tightened sfc pg combine to
produce SCA conditions. Combined winds and seas for the SCA
during these pre-dawn hrs. Offshore wind trajectory to flatten
seas especially nearshore today thru tonight. Overall winds and
seas will peak this morning, followed by a diminishing/subsiding
trend to winds/seas this afternoon thru tonight. Seas will be
dominated by short period wind waves with an underlying 1 to 2
ft easterly swell at 9+ second periods.

Friday through Monday...Building southwesterly winds along a warm
front cause the seas to poke up towards 2-4 ft by Friday evening,
but winds and seas both subside by Saturday morning as the front
moves northward. This is only temporary reprieve, as a very strong
Arctic cold front will be moving across the coastal waters Sunday
afternoon/evening. WSW winds and seas again build behind the front,
with winds quickly veering to the NNW after the front moves through.
Small Craft Advisory continues to look more likely Sunday night. May
even see some gale force gusts during this timeframe. Conditions
gradually improve Monday, but still operate under a stiff NNW wind.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IGB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/IGB