Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
749 FXUS61 KILN 032306 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 706 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue into early next week. A cold front late Tuesday will bring showers followed by more seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... High pressure at the surface and aloft will persist. Some cumulus that has been developing into area will dissipate with the loss of heating. There is a non-zero chance that persistent clouds in western Kentucky could develop into the Tri-State late tonight. But that is a rather low potential. Thus, expect clear skies with valley fog developing. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Core of the upper ridge will start to shift eastward, but with its extensive expanse, the region will remain well under its influence. Expect more of a cumulus field on Saturday, but otherwise, persistence will be the rule. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper high will be centered along the Atlantic coast by the start of the period although it will still be predominant in keeping the region dry and very warm. But pattern will be changing as a substantial trough tracks across Canada, eventually passing through the Great Lakes into New England. Ensemble envelope has tightened up a bit with this feature, indicating less spread in solutions than the previous day. This short wave will push a cold front through the region with the latest timing between Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. As moisture returns ahead of the front, showers and possibly some thunderstorms will occur. Most likely, these chances will not develop until later Monday night. However, there are at least a few model solutions that suggest that there could be diurnal activity Monday afternoon in the Tri-State. Showers will be most numerous immediately ahead of the front. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build in bringing cooler temperatures with readings falling closer to normal. On Friday, northwest flow aloft will continue to prevail, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty whether a secondary short wave tracks across the area and if so how strong that may be. An inverted trough/pseudo warm front may develop in Kentucky. At this point, moisture looks limited, so it should still be dry with temperatures only slightly warmer than Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A few showers and storms have popped up west of KCVG, however expect them to stay west of the TAF sites and gradually dissipate. There will be the potential for some fog around overnight. Limited visibility restrictions at this time to KCVG, KLUK, and KILN. Additional cu will be possible for Saturday. Winds will be light and less than 10 knots through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...