261
FXUS61 KILN 271057
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
557 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Brisk and cold conditions will settle into the region through the end
of the workweek, with mainly dry conditions through Friday. A wintry
mix of precipitation is likely late Saturday into early Sunday as a
system moves through the Ohio Valley. Below normal temperatures are
expected to evolve into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With very steep lapse rates being maintained across the region (as
sampled on the 27.00Z KILN RAOB), gusts to 30kts will continue through
the next few hours before slowly subsiding toward daybreak and
beyond. Gusts to around 25kts will persist through the daytime as the
pressure gradient remains somewhat tight and lapse rates remain
steep.

Large-scale cyclonic flow will continue in the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley regions through the daytime today, with mostly cloudy
conditions expected as LL moisture pivots around the broad low
center. A bit more sunshine can be expected near/south of the Ohio
River, although it will be filtered as some thick cirrus overspreads
the area.

Although the moisture within the LL cloud-bearing layer will be
somewhat shallow in nature, suppose a few flurries cannot be ruled
out from time-to-time this afternoon, particularly near/N of I-70
into central OH where moisture availability off the lakes will be a
bit more robust. A subtle trof axis will pivot through the region
this evening into early tonight, which may provide just enough
forcing for some scattered flurries this evening from WC through
central OH.

Highs today will be about 10-12 degrees below normal, generally
topping out in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ISO/SCT lake enhanced/effect SHSN and light flurries will be
possible this evening through tonight, especially from WC through
central OH, as a subtle trof axis pivots through the region,
providing just enough forcing for some ISO/SCT activity near/N of
I-70. Temps will dip into the lower to mid 20s through tonight as
even colder air settles into the region.

Expansive cloud cover will persist near/N of I-70 through tonight,
with some of this better cloud cover expected to drift to the S
toward daybreak Friday. Some clearing will evolve into Friday
afternoon in the Tri-State and N KY, but mostly cloudy to OVC skies
should be maintained from WC through central OH through much of the
daytime.

With a reinforcing shot of cold air into early Friday, highs on
Friday will top out in the lower to mid 30s from N to S,
respectively. Daytime highs around freezing are expected for most
spots N of the OH Rvr.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night remains quiet as a cold surface high shifts east of the
Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 20s/
upper teens which sets up an interesting day for Saturday.

On Saturday, a couple upper level shortwave troughs eject out of the
Plains into the Mississippi River Valley. A primary surface low is
forecast to form around the middle Mississippi River Valley by
midday as the upper level waves consolidate. The deepening low moves
northeast Saturday afternoon toward the Great Lakes. This low and
associated upper level trough bring precipitation into the Ohio
Valley by Saturday afternoon/evening. Precipitation is likely to
start as snow since cold air will still be in place as the high
recedes. Some accumulations and travel impacts are possible and
looking increasingly likely Saturday afternoon and evening.

The low then continues to progress northeast through the Great Lakes
on Saturday night and Sunday morning. This is when forecast
uncertainty over the Ohio Valley grows substantially. While
precipitation is likely to be ongoing, increasingly warm air keeps
advecting in from the south. A warming profile should eventually
support a changeover from snow towards overnight and into Sunday
morning especially southeast of I-71. However, mesoscale guidance is
still just a bit too far out of range to be of use just yet. Thermal
profiles are borderline so a small change in temperatures will have
a large impact of rain vs snow. If snow ends up being the favored
precipitation type, larger travel impacts could linger into Sunday.
The best chance for travel impacts is along and especially northwest
of I-71 where temperatures remain closer to freezing. Precipitation
ends Sunday evening after a cold front pushes through the area. Cold
temperatures remain in place through the start of next week.

The next chance for possible winter weather develops in the Monday
night to Tuesday night timeframe. An upper level trough moves
through the Ohio Valley which could lead to some light snowfall.
There is also the outside chance a surface low develops close enough
to the area to provide some possible impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Westerly winds of 12-15kts, with gusts 20-25kts, will be maintained
through the TAF period.

A borderline MVFR/VFR cloud deck is expanding across the area, with
MVFR CIGs possible for several hours early/mid morning just about
anywhere. However, some scattering/clearing will evolve for the
afternoon for srn sites, with VFR CIGs likely persisting for nrn
sites of KDAY/KCMH/KLCK through the period. Where these CIGs are able
to be maintained toward/past 00z, some flurries or brief light SHSN
will be possible, so have added a PROB30 at KCMH/KLCK to account for
this potential.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBY with wintry precipitation is likely
late Saturday into early Sunday. LIFR CIGs and VSBY will be possible
during this time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...