104
FXUS63 KILX 070725
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
225 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorm continue north of I-72 and
  south of I-70 into this afternoon as the cold front exits
  central and southeastern IL this afternoon.

- Behind the cold front, a return to more seasonable temps (highs
  in the upper 60s to mid 70s) north of I-70 Tuesday and area-
  wide Wednesday though Friday is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

The cold front is still working its way through central IL this
morning, located near the I-55 corridor at the moment. There are
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and behind the
front. Additional showery activity in southeastern IL where the
increased moisture return is located is possible as we go into the
morning hours as more develop. The area that hasn`t seen much rain
thus far, and is currently precipitation-free, is between I-72 and I-
70. The CAMs indicate that this area is likely to remain the driest
section of the CWA. Rain hasn`t been widespread with this frontal
passage. Any rainfall chances should end by late afternoon, around
21-00z, but the northwestern counties of the forecast area should be
dried out by 18z.

Behind this cold front, a period of dry weather sets up as a high
pressure takes over the pattern once again. The next chance of rain
arrives early next week as another low pressure system looks to pass
off to the north of Illinois, draping a cold front through the CWA.

Temperatures will briefly drop down to near normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, but will quickly warm back up into the 80s for the weekend
into the new week. Lows on Wednesday night and Thursday night will
be the chilliest we have seen a quite awhile, being in the upper 30s
to low 40s. We will have to watch for the possibility of a light
frost to occur Thursday morning and Friday morning, primarily in
east central IL. East of I-55 both mornings have a 20-30% chance of
temperatures dropping below 36 degrees, with potentially clear skies.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

IFR cloud deck ahead of a cold front continues to spread north,
roughly along a KSPI-KBMI line at 05Z. High-res model guidance
suggests this area may not reach KPIA, but lowering ceilings
behind the front will bring them down to low MVFR range in a few
hours. Convection has been somewhat sparse as of late, but an
increase in showers/storms are recently observed near the Iowa
border. Currently think that KPIA would be the only TAF site to
get thunder in the near term, and overall rain chances as far east
as KCMI are not high enough to mention at this time. Ceilings in
the 800-1200 foot range look to be fairly common though midday,
with clearing from northwest to southeast in the afternoon.

The cold front is expected to continue pushing southeast the next
several hours, and winds switch around to the north behind it and
increase to around 10-12 knots. Winds should lighten up some after
sunset.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$