317
FXUS63 KILX 120316
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
916 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy through late this afternoon with southwesterly winds
  gusting 30-40 mph.

- A gradual warming trend continues late this week. By Saturday,
  there is a high chance (75-90%) of temperatures reaching the
  70s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Skies are clear and will remain that way overnight...allowing for
continued Aurora viewing. Winds remain out of the southwest with
speeds of 5-10mph. Overnight lows falling into the middle 30s
still looks like a good forecast too. Therefore, no major update
needed at this time.

Auten

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The primary concern for this afternoon is gusty winds and dry
conditions, which could lead to unwanted spread of fire in
locations that did not see accumulating snow yesterday morning.
MSLP gradient has tightened ahead of a surface trough, which is
currently passing through central IA. Latest METARs show 30-40
mph southwest wind gusts common. This has mixed down low
dewpoints, resulting in RH around 30-35%, despite cool
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. By early evening the
low-level jet decouples, and winds will subside. High clouds will
thin and set the stage for a cool night, though warmer than the
past few, in the low-mid 30s.

Mid level heights gradually rise for the last half of the week,
due to amplifying ridging over the central CONUS. Deterministic
GFS and ECMWF are in strong agreement on warm air advection
through the period. This will lead to a increase in temperatures
back above normal. Highs on Wednesday are likely to reach the
mid 50s to near 60F, with Thursday being a few degrees warmer. A
period of lighter winds is expected on Thursday when a surface
ridge slides south of the Ohio Valley.

Anomalous/near record breaking warmth will expand over the region
Fri-Sat. Stronger southerly flow develops ahead of a deep trough
digging into the western CONUS. The IPS and GEFS means show 850-mb
temperatures reaching 13-17 C, which is near the 99th percentile
for mid- November. This supports high confidence for NBM`s
advertised temperatures reaching the mid-70s on Saturday. Gusty
southwest winds reaching 20-30 mph will accompany the warmth.

12z ensemble solutions show a quicker progression of a cold front
this weekend, now crossing the region late Saturday or early
Sunday. With upper dynamics displaced well to our north, and
ridging along the Gulf Coast, prospects for rain are quite low.
This is reflected in NBM`s latest PoPs reduced to slight chance
through Sunday. A return to cooler, more seasonal temperatures is
likely early next week.

25

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites next 24hrs with only high
clouds expected...if any. May concern will be winds. Southwest
winds will prevail this evening, but back to the west late tonight
and then become more northwesterly tomorrow afternoon. Speeds will
be around 10kts or less this evening and overnight, but then
increase tomorrow with gusts to around 20kts in the afternoon.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$