454
FXUS63 KIWX 092321
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
721 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost are likely again tonight through early Friday
  morning w/ much of the area seeing a 50% or greater chance of
  minimum temperatures at or below 37 deg F. A Frost Advisory
  has been issued for much of the area.

- Isolated to widely scattered light rain showers are possible
  Friday afternoon and evening with the passage of a weak
  weather disturbance. Widespread measureable precipitation is
  unlikely.

- Temperatures will warm back to near or slightly above normal
  this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

One more seasonably chilly night ahead w/ high-res models still
in excellent agreement with minimum surface temperatures falling
into the middle to upper 30s as continued clear skies and light
winds support efficient radiational cooling. Low-level warm air
advection does kick in tonight w/ H85 temperatures expected to
climb from around 5C to near 10C by 12z Friday. This contributes
to some uncertainty w/ the likelihood of frost tonight, but w/
high-res ensembles still suggesting a 55-75 percent chance of 2m
temperatures under 37 deg F tonight, felt it was best to go
ahead w/ a Frost Advisory for those areas with at least a 50%
probability of exceedence per the HREF. This is valid from 2 AM
until 9 AM EDT Friday.

A generally dry, quiet pattern prevails otherwise. Isolated to
widely scattered very light rain showers will be possible later
Friday (especially after 21z) with the passage of a weak
disturbance aloft and associated surge of mid and high level
moisture. However, a relatively dry boundary layer should limit
the coverage of this activity and preclude any chance for much
more than a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation. After
today, a warming trend will commence w/ daily highs expected to
climb back to near or slightly above normal over the weekend
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

High pressure continues slowly departing the area to our east. That
sets up warm air advection to come in behind and that`ll allow some
high to mid level decks to come in as a cold front washes out to our
west to end the day Friday. Expect the low and surface levels to
have plenty of dry air that should keep VFR conditions prevailing.
With that front approaching, also will have some 10 kt sustained
winds and with SBN being close enough to the front, could also see
some gusts approaching 20 kts during peak heating time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for INZ005>009-
     013>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MIZ079>081.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hammer
AVIATION...Roller