685
FXUS64 KJAN 031143 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
543 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Cold and wet conditions overall for the remainder of the week.

  - Locally heavy rainfall amounts across southern portions of the
    area late tonight through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Today: The stubborn stratus deck continues to defy most NWP
guidance and shows little sign of dissipating based on latest
satellite/obs trends. With surface high pressure centered over the
area helping to limit any mixing of the cold/humid boundary
layer, it may take a good bit of the day to finally erode it. Have
reflected this reasoning in the near term cloud/temp forecast,
incorporating some of the HRRR guidance in particular as it has
led the way in the stratus forecast. /EC/

Tonight through Saturday: Another shortwave moving out of the
Four Corners region and into the plains will result in increasing
rain chances across mainly western portions of the CWA by sunrise
Thursday morning. There could be a small brief window for light
freezing rain potential over north central/northeast MS with the
precip onset as we go through Thursday morning, but very little if
any impact would occur.

Through the course of the day Thursday and into late Thursday night,
showers will continue to increase in coverage across the forecast
area as this trough continues to work its way east.  Moisture will
continue to lift northwest into the Lower Mississippi River Valley
during this time, with a surface low pressure system finally
developing and lifting northwest across the north central gulf coast.
As the low continues its northwest journey across the Deep South
into the Carolinas Friday through Saturday, both clouds and rain
chances will gradually come to an end across the forecast area.
Rainfall totals during this timeframe currently look to range from
around one quarter of an inch to three inches, with the higher
amounts currently forecast to be across areas south of the
Interstate 20 corridor.

Sunday through Tuesday: Global models are gaining some
consistency with showing that the weather will be mostly
controlled by the polar stream, and this should keep conditions
mostly dry with below normal temperatures. Forecast confidence is
increasing some that we`ll a reinforcing surge of cold polar air
early next week. /19/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

MVFR flight conditions to begin the period as low stratus clouds
linger across the area. Patchy fog will be possible before sunrise.
After 18Z Wednesday, conditions improve to VFR as cloud cover
decrease over the day. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       40  49  43  50 /  50  80  90  60
Meridian      36  48  41  50 /  30  70  90  70
Vicksburg     41  49  42  49 /  70  80  80  60
Hattiesburg   42  51  46  54 /  60  90  90  80
Natchez       43  50  43  50 /  80  90  80  60
Greenville    39  45  39  47 /  50  40  70  30
Greenwood     37  48  40  48 /  40  50  80  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/SW