855
FXUS64 KJAN 301144
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
544 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Minor impacts from light freezing rain will be possible over
    far northwest portions of the area Monday.

  - Widespread rain is expected Monday through Monday night
    followed by cold and dry conditions.

  - It will remain colder than normal through the remainder of
    the week with additional rain events Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The forecast for the next seven days can be best described as
colder and wetter than normal. In the big picture, a broad and
cold upper longwave trough will encompass much of the nation, and
this will tend to keep the storm track suppressed to the south
while allowing multiple intrusions of cold polar air into the
Deep South region. In terms of impacts to the forecast area, these
mostly focus on the potential for heavier rain amounts, and even
some light ice accumulation over far northwest portions of the
area given the influx of colder air.

Today: A cold front is now making it`s way into northwest portions
of the area, and it will continue to move southeast across the
entire area as we go through today, accompanied by a swath of
light to moderate rainfall. The front will be followed by
significantly colder temperatures and blustery conditions.

Tonight through Monday night: Most of the forecast concerns occur
during this period in association with the next more significant
shortwave trough expected to move across the Southern Plains
Monday and into our region Monday night. As the trough approaches,
moist isentropic ascent should quickly develop late tonight into
Monday morning resulting in the development of considerable light
rain showers. Over far northwest portions of the forecast area,
surface temperatures will be near to just below freezing as precip
chances begin early Monday morning, and we will be messaging for
the potential of limited ice impacts in this area, including the
potential for a few slick spots on bridges/overpasses given that
it will be quite cold through the preceding night. Otherwise, all
rain is expected later Monday through Monday night over the entire
area with a few locations potentially receiving up to an inch of
rainfall. A brief change-over back to light wintry precip can`t be
ruled out over northwest portions of the area late Monday night in
a strong cold advection pattern as the system departs, but no
impacts are expected if this does occur.

Tuesday through Wednesday night look drier and quite cold,
especially Tuesday when blustery north-northwest wind behind the
departing system will make for very uncomfortable conditions in
strong cold advection. Temperatures should struggle to rise much
above 40 F Tuesday afternoon, and some locations may struggle to
even reach 40 F along the Hwy 82 corridor. Clearing skies and
diminishing wind under high pressure Tuesday night should allow
temperatures to fall well into the 20s for much of the area, then
modification of the airmass will allow temperatures to rebound a
good bit by Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday: The next significant shortwave trough
will most likely approach Thursday resulting in the development of
another frontal wave with increased warm advection over the
forecast area. Forecast confidence has increased some regarding
the potential for a couple of rounds of heavy rainfall in the
Thu-Fri time frame. The storm system track should be suppressed
to near the coast, and therefore any severe weather potential
should be mostly south of the forecast area in the continued
chilly airmass. Drier conditions are mostly likely to return
Saturday, but don`t be surprised if the next system affects the
area shortly after that. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR prevails across much of the area today due to low stratus.
Not much improvement is expected through the period. Northern
sites GLH, GWO and GTR will have a greater window of VFR
conditions this evening through tonight. Winds will also gust out
of the north around 17kts. Locally higher gusts could be possible
at GLH. Rain showers are moving quickly through the area and
should diminish from west to east through this afternoon./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       55  39  51  34 /  80  30  80 100
Meridian      54  37  54  37 /  90  30  60 100
Vicksburg     52  37  47  33 /  70  20  80  90
Hattiesburg   62  43  59  44 /  80  30  60  90
Natchez       56  39  52  34 /  90  40  80  90
Greenville    44  32  38  31 /  20  10  70  80
Greenwood     47  33  44  32 /  30  10  70  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/EC/SAS20