881
FXUS64 KJAN 092326
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
626 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail
   through this weekend.

 - Limited fire danger conditions are expected across portions of
   Northwest Mississippi, Northeast Louisiana, and Southeast
   Arkansas this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

In the wake of a weak cold front, drier air is already advecting
into our region and will continue to do so through the weekend as
upper ridging builds just west of our area. Though this dry regime
will still allow for seasonably warm days, with highs ranging
from near normal to slightly above normal, it will also make for
cooler overnights and mornings. Cooler, meaning...closer to
average for this time of year. We`ll take what we can get. Heading
into next week, the upper ridge axis will shift only slightly
eastward, maintaining surface high pressure across the Deep South.
This will result in continued dry weather conditions, though
temperatures will trend upward into the middle of next week as
surface trajectories take on a more southerly component. Overall,
in spite of the relief behind this front, temperatures will remain
near to above normal through the forecast period. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions and diminishing NNE sfc wind should prevail for the
most part. As lower level moisture advects in from the east
tonight, we may see some higher level stratus ceilings develop in
the 3500-6000 ft range, especially for eastern sites, but sub VFR
conditions are generally not expected. /EC/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Given the combination of potential for low RHs in the 25-30
percent range, wind gusts to around 15-20 kt, and antecedent dry
conditions this afternoon, we will highlight a limited fire
danger threat for northwestern portions of the area. RHs are
not forecast to be as low tomorrow, but given the upcoming
extended period of dry weather, fire danger potential will be
monitored closely during the coming days. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       60  82  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      59  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     57  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   63  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       56  83  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    55  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     57  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

DL/EC/