173
FXUS64 KJAN 021004
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
404 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Very cold conditions are expected today through tonight.

  - It will remain colder than normal through the remainder of the
    week with additional rain events Wednesday night through
    Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A large and anomalously cold longwave trough continues to be the
primary weather influence for most of the CONUS, and that will
continue to be the case for at least the next several days with
colder and wetter than normal conditions expected.

As of this morning, an expansive stratus deck in a strong cold
advection pattern extends as far west as eastern OK/TX. A cold
thermal trough responsible for the stratus will gradually shift
east across the area this afternoon and eventually bring a
decrease in the stratus, but the combination of cold advection,
stratus, and blustery northwest wind will today very cold. As the
thermal trough shifts east tonight and surface high pressure
becomes centered over the forecast area, temperatures will drop
well into the 20s. The airmass will moderate Wednesday with
increased sun and diminishing wind helping to make for more
tolerable conditions.

Wednesday night through Monday: The next significant shortwave
trough will most likely approach Wed night into Thursday resulting
in the development of another frontal wave with increased warm
frontal ascent over the forecast area. Confidence is increasing
that moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be mostly confined to
southern portions of the area, and any severe weather potential
should be mostly south of the forecast area in the continued
chilly airmass. Some guidance indicate that a second shortwave
trough will quickly follow and bring another round of moderate
rainfall Friday. Otherwise, drier conditions are most likely to
return for the weekend with seasonably cool temperatures. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

IFR flight conditions as -RA continues over TAF sites. -RA will
gradually end throughout Tuesday morning. Flight conditions are
expected to improve to MVFR/VFR towards the end of the period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       44  26  57  40 /   0   0   0  60
Meridian      46  24  56  35 /  10   0   0  30
Vicksburg     45  27  56  41 /   0   0   0  70
Hattiesburg   51  29  61  43 /   0   0   0  50
Natchez       46  27  60  43 /   0   0   0  80
Greenville    42  27  50  40 /   0   0   0  50
Greenwood     42  25  53  38 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/SW