154
FXUS64 KJAN 061812
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1212 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Patchy dense fog possible this morning.

  - Warmer temperatures today with rain ending across the southeast
    half of the area.

  - The next widespread light freeze is expected Monday night into
    Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Through tonight: The persistent cloud cover leading to much cooler
than normal temperatures along with very light rain and light
drizzle will finally come to an end today. Local radars still showed
light returns across our CWA as a moist southwest flow aloft
continued across our region. Patchy dense fog will also be possible
along with the very light rain and light drizzle this morning.
Latest surface analysis had a 1018mg high centered just west of our
CWA that will track east today and result in a light return flow
this afternoon. In addition the 140kt jet streak that has been over
our region will shift to the southeast. Together these features are
expected to shift the moist feed contributing to the light
precipitation that has been mostly over the southeast half of our
CWA, to the southeast which will bring and end to our rain chances
this afternoon. As the rain ends, cloud cover will thin from the
northwest as well. This will allow for the sun to break through and
combine with the return flow to result in afternoon highs more than
15 degrees warmer than the last couple of days. Afternoon highs will
still top out cooler than normal and in the 50s at most locations.
Temperatures tonight will also be warmer. No rain is expected but
models suggest the extent of the dense fog development will be
greater by sunrise Sunday. /22/

Sunday through next week:

The overall pattern will continue to feature a general ridge pattern
over the western US and a trough in the east. Locally, this will
mean mostly northwesterly flow and reinforcing cool intrusions.
Along with this, the troughy nature of the pattern suggests some
opportunity for periods of precipitation. The first of which could
arrive in the later part of Sunday, featuring a cool or cold rain
with limited hazards likely. Following the first wave and front
Sunday into Monday, the next round of showers and reinforcing cold
front looks likely towards the end of next week when a more robust
shortwave moves through the longwave trough. Uncertainty at the 7
day range with an active jet stream suggests there could be shifts
in timing or intensity of this activity, but there does appear to be
an increased chance for thunder compared to recent activity that has
occurred with very limited thermodynamic instability. Some longer
term guidance suggest dewpoints could rise into the 60s F ahead of
that front which would be probable to support some convective
activity were that to be the case.

Otherwise, temperatures this week will generally be near to slightly
below normal with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s F and lows in
the middle 30s to 40s F most days with a few opportunities for a
freeze on a few of the chillier nights. For now, the coldest
night appears likely to be Monday night when most areas see
temperatures near freezing with northernmost areas dipping into
the middle 20s F. /86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Clouds have thinned a bit resulting in mostly VFR conditions for
most central and northern TAF sites with FEW/SCT low clouds.
Intermittent periods of slight thickening to BKN has and will
continue to result in periods of MVFR/IFR conditions before
ceilings lower more consistently to MVFR/IFR after 00Z. Lowered
VSBY to IFR/LIFR with areas of fog are expected between 09Z and
16Z before dissipating. Winds will be light, under 7 kts, and
generally out of the south. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       42  61  42  53 /   0  40  30   0
Meridian      38  60  41  53 /   0  20  40   0
Vicksburg     43  60  39  52 /   0  40  20   0
Hattiesburg   43  66  46  58 /  10  30  50   0
Natchez       44  66  41  54 /   0  40  30   0
Greenville    40  55  38  47 /   0  20  10   0
Greenwood     40  58  38  50 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/LP/LP