740
FXUS64 KJAN 240307 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
907 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A storm system will bring a slight to marginal risk for
    severe weather Monday night and Tuesday along with locally
    heavy rain.

  - Much cooler and drier air will surge into the area Wednesday
    and continue the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

  - Heavy rainfall could become a concern by early next week for
    northwest portions of the area.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A pesky stratus deck has shrunk considerably this evening, though
remarkably, it remains across a smaller portion of central MS and
northeast LA. Higher clouds are moving across much of south MS
and south LA. We have also seen some patchy development of mainly
light fog. Overnight, redevelopment of low stratus is expected
across a portion of the area with additional areas of fog also
possible. Fog could be locally dense in spots, but confidence in
it impacting any one area is somewhat low given the pesky clouds
serving as a likely inhibiting factor. Nevertheless, added more
areas of fog to the forecast for overnight, but otherwise, no
other changes are planned in the near term. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tonight through Tuesday:

Stratus lingering over much the area today struggling to clear out,
and it may only redevelop tonight along with a fog threat given
the cool/humid boundary layer conditions didn`t get to mix out
much today. As of now, it seems the coolest and most humid
locations are along/south of the Hwy 84 corridor, and so have
indicated the greater fog potential there in the forecast, but the
fog forecast confidence is not great overall.

Once any fog dissipates early Monday, attention will turn to a
shortwave trough crossing the Southern Plains and approaching the
Lower MS Valley by late in the day. Low level winds and moisture
transport will increase quickly over the forecast area in response
to the height/pressure falls, and increasing instability and deep
layer wind shear will create an environment supportive of
organized thunderstorm activity as we go through Monday night.
Of greatest concern Low level shear may become favorable for a
few tornadoes, mainly over western portions of the area where a
slight risk is now being messaged, but recent high-res guidance
are showing a signal for discrete supercell development in the
open warm sector well ahead of the more organized storms that may
have good access to richer boundary layer moisture that could
result in low tornado probabilities a bit further east late Monday
night.

By Tuesday, as synoptic scale ascent wanes, we should see overall
storm coverage/intensity diminish ahead of a lingering surface
boundary that will continue pushing east. A few storms may re-
intensify with daytime heating over central/eastern MS and we are
messaging a marginal risk for this threat. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will linger into Tuesday night before conditions dry out
late.

Wednesday through Friday night: A significant weather pattern
change will take place with cool continental polar air surging
into the area behind a cold front Wednesday. It appears that at
least a light freeze should occur Thursday night for northern
portions of the area, and then for a larger portion of the area
Friday night when clear skies and light wind will be more common
with surface high pressure in a more favorable position.

Next weekend: It is definitely worth mentioning the day 7-8 period
for this forecast as quite an active weather pattern could develop
over much of the central CONUS by that time as a major longwave
trough sets up over the Rockies into the Plains while a strong
ridge builds up the East Coast, thus placing our area in favorable
deep southwest flow aloft for several rounds of showers and storms.
As of now, global models are showing increasing potential for
heavy rainfall to develop, especially over the ArkLaMiss Delta
region where it would be supported by the current La Nina. This is
just something to keep an eye on for the next few days. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A pesky MVFR stratus deck persists across much of the area late
this afternoon and will linger into at least the early evening at
many sites. Though it is gradually lifting, mixing out in many
areas, redevelopment of low stratus or fog is possible early
Monday morning, with categorical reductions possible. VFR
conditions are expected to return by mid-morning with increasing
high clouds ahead of the next cold front. Scattered SHRA and TS
will become possible Mon afternoon mainly west of the MS River.
This activity will spread eastward into Mon night. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       51  77  64  76 /   0  10  80  90
Meridian      49  76  60  77 /   0   0  50 100
Vicksburg     51  78  64  77 /   0  30  90  80
Hattiesburg   51  81  65  81 /   0   0  40  90
Natchez       51  80  64  78 /   0  30  80  80
Greenville    50  73  62  72 /   0  50 100  40
Greenwood     50  75  61  75 /   0  20 100  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/EC