858
FXUS63 KJKL 301905
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
205 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front passing through today will bring an end to any
  rain, and keep temperatures from rising much.

- A more significant precip event is expected Monday night and
  Tuesday, with a little bit better potential for wintery
  precipitation, especially north of the Mountain Parkway.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

Cold front exits east of the area by this evening, with drier
conditions developing within zonal flow aloft. Models do suggest a
surge of low-level moisture moving south as ridging builds into the
area overnight, and this may push a stratus deck into the area.
However, these clouds are progged to dissipate and move quickly
north shortly after sunrise Monday.

High clouds gradually increases through the day Monday as a
disturbance moves east toward the area. Surface cyclogenesis will
occur along the northern Gulf Coast, with an inverted surface trough
building north along the western side of Appalachians. Additionally,
a strong southwesterly mid-level jet stream to the west and north
will allow for warm air to build northeast into eastern Kentucky,
with overrunning precipitation developing from southwest to
northeast through the evening. Precipitation continues through the
overnight as the surface cyclone moves across the Deep South, with
colder air beginning to advect into the region as the cyclone turns
up the East Coast Tuesday.

Initially, as precipitation overspreads the area rain will be the
primary p-type, but low-level critical thicknesses will support a
wintry mix of precipitation types as the evening progresses from
roughly the Interstate 64 corridor north. Toward dawn Monday colder
air will start to advect from the west and northwest into the
region, allowing for a changeover to snow from northwest to
southeast as precipitation ends.

Probability of exceedance values for greater than 1 inch snow
accumulation continue to remain around 35 to 55 percent for areas
from Interstate 64 north in the JKL forecast area, with values
decreasing quickly to the south of Interstate 64. As rain changes to
snow during the morning from northwest to southeast, a quick dusting
to less than one-half inch of snow, mostly accumulating on grass and
elevated surfaces, will be possible, with little to no impacts
expected.

Drier and colder air moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon
into the early evening, but with cold advection light snow showers
gradually diminishing along the high terrain of southeastern
Kentucky.



.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 419 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

The extended forecast period opens with an approaching system
knocking on the door. An inverted trough moves across parts of the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and The Appalachians Monday night through
Tuesday. Storm track can greatly vary what happens across the CWA.
At current, a low is expected to strengthen over the Gulf states of
Mississippi and Alabama, before tracking north and east. How far
north will determine precip type across the area. A more northerly
storm track would result in warmer air, and more rain for the area.
A more southerly track, staying south of the Outer Banks of the
Carolinas would result in colder air remaining over the area and
more snow across the area. At current a range of precip types are
expected, with areas south of the I-64 corridor starting as all
rain, and a rain-snow mix north of the corridor. Temperatures will
NOT follow a diurnal trend (fall steadily through the night) as the
inverted trough will progress through the region overnight.
Temperatures are expected to fall through midnight before warming a
degree or two shortly after midnight through 7am, after-which
temperatures will drop through the morning. This is in line with
southwesterly winds becoming northwesterly after sunrise.

Locations south of the I-64 corridor are currently expected to
transition from rain to a rain-snow mix through the morning hours
Tuesday. The transition would start closest to the corridor, slowly
spreading south as colder air advects into the area from the
northwest. POP chances slowly dwindle Tuesday afternoon as the
system progresses into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.

With warm air aloft working in from the southwest, and temperatures
around freezing along and north of the I-64 corridor, freezing rain
can`t be ruled out for a few hours around midnight Monday into
Tuesday. No major ice accumulations are expected. Lows Monday night
will generally range from the mid to low 30s, with the coldest
locations being along and north of the I-64 corridor. As rain
transitions to a rain-snow mix Tuesday, temperatures will struggle
to hit 40, with much of the area remaining in the mid to upper 30s.
With the system having exited the area, Eastern Kentucky skies will
slowly clear out Tuesday night. This will allow for temperatures to
drop into the low to mid 20s.

Wednesday through Thursday, dry weather returns to the region, with
the next systems arriving sometime toward the end of the week and
weekend. The weather pattern looks to remain active heading into
December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

MVFR/IFR conditions in drizzle, mist, and low clouds will
gradually improve to VFR conditions from northwest to southeast
through the afternoon as a cold front exits to the east. A
secondary cold front may bring another round of MVFR cigs
overnight, with highest probabilities of this occurring at KSYM
and KSJS but with too low confidence to include in the TAFs at
this time. Gusty west-northwest to southwest winds gusting around
20 kts early this afternoon will become westerly behind the front
and gradually diminish.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC