997
FXUS63 KJKL 100826
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
326 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake Wind Advisories have been issued for the Cave Run Lake and
  Cumberland Lake areas. A heads up SPS is in effect elsewhere.

- Gusty southwesterly winds between 30 and 40 mph are likely on
  Wednesday.

- Snow showers are expected to produce spatially variable
  accumulations and localized travel impacts on Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning.

- A clipper system is expected to produce more widespread winter
  precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning.

- A much colder than normal airmass is forecast to move into the
  region for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers. Did also add in some flurries or sprinkles in the north
for the overnight hours. These minor adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones
and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows an area of strong low pressure moving into
the northwest Ohio Valley while high pressure has been shunted
southeast of the state. This is creating a rather tight pressure
gradient through eastern Kentucky that will tighten up
considerably later this night. Otherwise, skies are partly cloudy
with generally south to southwest winds of around 10 mph.
Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 30s to lower 40s
on the ridges and near 30 degrees in the sheltered valleys.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s across
the area. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a
freshening of the zones and the issuance of an SPS for gusty
winds away from the lakes late tonight and through Wednesday
afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 413 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Added a Lake Wind Advisory for the Cave Run Lake area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Current conditions show mid and high level clouds slowly clearing out
across Eastern Kentucky. Current temperatures around the area are in
the low to mid 40s, these are likely the highs for this afternoon.
Winds and cloud cover are expected to both increase ahead of the
next system this evening. With elevated winds and increased cloud
cover, temperatures are not expected to decouple, and remain
elevated overnight. Low temperatures should remain in the mid to
upper 30s. A strong low level jet is expected to move across the
area later this evening and overnight. While winds will be
"screaming" a few hundred feet off the surface (50-60 kts), winds
from this boundary layer are not expected to mix down to the surface,
at least not for an extended period of time. BUFKIT Soundings
comparing multiple models across multiple locations indicated the
momentum transfer from this boundry-layer low-level jet wouldn`t be
sufficient enough to reach Wind Advisory conditions. Cross sections of
each model run showed perhaps better chances of this would be along
or right behind the cold frontal passage later Wednesday morning-
afternoon. Lots of collaboration occurred between JKL and neighboring
offices, however it was ultimately decided confidence was too low
earlier today and with the current guidance to issue any products
such as a Wind Advisory. That said, winds will still be gusty,
and later guidance may offer greater confidence on the above.

During the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, rain will begin to spread
across the areas from the northwest to southeast. Winds may be
strongest along the cold front as it passes through the area. Winds
will be out of the southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph,
approaching 40 mph in spots. Strongest winds should be near/west of
I-75 and near/north of I-64. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued
for Lake Cumberland through 6 PM Wednesday. After the front moves
through winds should slowly taper off. Temperatures are expected to
peak in the mid 40s to near 50 through Wednesday afternoon. Winds
then become westerly and eventually northwesterly heading into the
evening. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop rapidly
through the afternoon. Towards sunset, and into the evening, rain
will mix with and eventually changeover to all snow. By this
point most snow showers should be across SE Kentucky. Some of the
more persistent snow showers may put down a quick skiff or coating
of snow across grassy or elevated surfaces. Only a few tenths of
snow is expected in those areas. Low temperatures eventually drop
into the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025

The forecast period commences with the approach of an Alberta
Clipper, tracking southeast toward the Commonwealth. At the onset of
the forecast, this surface low is anticipated to be traversing the
Central Plains. Analysis of forecast wind patterns and isotherms
suggests that the warm front will remain south of the area, and as
this system tracks from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, the
forecast area will be situated within the precipitation shield north
of the warm frontal boundary. Deterministic models and their
ensemble members exhibit strong consensus regarding this systems
trajectory across Missouri into Kentucky before its eventual
northeastward ejection toward the Mid-Atlantic states. Given this
path, the forecast area is expected to be bisected by the crucial
540 dam critical thickness line. Although the precise location of
this boundary is subject to spatial and temporal shifts with
subsequent model cycles, the overall trend indicates a north-to-
south split in p-types across the CWA. The northern half of the CWA
will likely experience accumulating snow, while a wintry mix is
anticipated along the freezing line, transitioning to all rain
further to the south. Providing exact accumulation values for the
northern CWA is premature; however, the current forecast supports
the potential need for Winter Weather Advisories from Thursday night
through Friday morning to address the snow hazard.

Following the departure of the first system, a weak surface high
pressure is forecast to build back into the area. Model guidance
maintains consistency regarding a subsequent Clipper system tracking
through the central CONUS, reaching the CWAs vicinity by late
Saturday night into Sunday. PoP is expected to increase Saturday
afternoon; however, guidance for this second system is generally
more northerly, suggesting the heaviest precipitation will be
concentrated north of the CWA, primarily along and north of the Ohio
River. Nonetheless, isolated light accumulations across the northern
CWA cannot be entirely ruled out through Sunday morning. A cold
surface high-pressure system will subsequently build into the region
behind the departing low, ushering in some of the coldest
temperatures of the season thus far through the early part of the
succeeding week. A gradual warming trend is expected by the middle
of next week, preceding the approach of another system toward the
end of the forecast period.

In summary, the period will be characterized by the passage of two
distinct Clipper systems, one from Thursday night into Friday and
the second Saturday night into Sunday. Both systems are forecast to
bring periods of light snow accumulation. Strong surface high
pressure will subsequently establish itself over the region on
Sunday, driving cold temperatures down to the upper single digits
and mid-teens. A notable warmup ahead of the next system is forecast
to commence by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Mid and high level clouds are still currently crossing the area.
Winds have settled to generally from the south to southwest at
10 kts or less. However, winds aloft will begin to ramp up
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. With that, a Low Level
Jet (LLJ) moves across the area tonight, leading to the threat of
LLWS for most of the night. Around 12Z, that cold front starts to
pass through producing a potential for mainly light rain for most
TAF sites between 13-18Z Wednesday along with CIGs falling to IFR
or lower by evening. Winds will remain out of the southwest with
gusts of 25-30 kts, though the threat of LLWS diminishes with the
frontal passage and more effective mix down.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ051-052-
060-079-080-083-084-106.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Thursday for KYZ086-087-110-113-115>117-120.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Thursday for KYZ088-118.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF