161
FXUS63 KJKL 032130
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
430 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold and mainly dry weather persists through Thursday.

- Wintry precipitation is possible late Thursday night into
  Friday, with the greatest chances along and south of the Mtn
  Pkwy where the Friday morning commute could be impacted.

- The pattern is expected to remain active through the weekend and
  perhaps the middle of next week as well, though long term
  forecast confidence in details remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday morning)
Issued at 420 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

Clearing has occurred in the southern half to two thirds of the
area as high pressure at the surface and aloft shifts across
eastern KY. This clearing should continue spreading north this
evening. This should allow for temperatures to drop down into the
20s areawide this evening into the overnight. This evening
through Thursday, the upper level low and trough should rotate
into Ontario and Quebec and across the Great lakes and OH Valley
to the Northeast and mid Atlantic. The associated cold front will
precede it and sweep across the eastern Great Lakes to the
Northeast and mid Atlantic to Carolinas/northern portions of the
Gulf Coast states. After a relative minimum in cloud cover, mid
and upper level moisture should increase overnight. Some patchy
flurries or light snow is possible near and north of I-64 and
especially Fleming County from this late.

The cold front should cross eastern KY Thursday morning to
early Thursday afternoon, accompanied by some mid and even a few
low level clouds in the north and a few flurries or patchy light
snow may occur early on Thursday near and north of I-64. Sfc high
pressure pressure briefly building in from the Midwest/Mid MS
Valley vicinity to the southern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic.
Meanwhile, further south and west, the shortwave trough/upper low
initially near the Four Corners region will move into sections of
the Plains. In advance of it, a sfc low should take shape over the
northwestern to northern Gulf with an inverted trough developing
north into the TN Valley and Lower OH Valley ahead of the
shortwave trough moving from the Plains toward the Ozarks and MS
Valley.

Thursday night through Friday morning, the shortwave trough that
will be nearing the Ozarks and mid and Lower MS Valley late
Thursday will progress into the Lower OH Valley as well as the TN
Valley and Southeast on Thursday night, shifting east of eastern
Ky Friday morning. An additional shortwave or two should also
approach from the west on Friday morning. Meanwhile, the sfc low
over the northern Gulf on Thursday evening should track to near
the mouth of the MS River on Thursday night and toward northwest
FL through Friday morning. The inverted trough should remain north
of this system and shift into southeastern KY Thursday night and
Friday.

There has generally been a trend among the convective allowing
guidance such as the 12Z and 18Z HRRR as well as 15Z RAP in
addition to the 18Z NAM and 12Z GEM and 12Z ECMWF for measurable
precipitation late Thursday night into Friday morning to be near
and south of the Mtn Parkway if not more confined to along and
south of the Hal Rogers Parkway to KY 80 corridor. The NBM pops
may be too far north and pops may eventually need a tighter
gradient in the southern half of the area as the 00Z ECMWF had
been further north than the 12Z ECMWF and the NBM is more heavily
weighted toward the EC guidance. The thermal profile through 12Z
or 7 AM EST Friday per LREF forecast soundings become marginal and
near the 0C isotherm in the lowest few thousand feet though wet
bulbing or significant lift could result in slightly colder
profiles. This suggests a rain versus snow forecast with higher
elevations more favored for more or all snow and a mix with or
change to rain in valleys in the south for late Thursday night. If
surface temperatures were to lag some freezing rain is not out of
the question. Overall, quite a bit of uncertainty remains, but if
the more recent higher resolution guidance trends in the HRRR and
RAP, etc. hold, a portion of the area may need to be considered
for a winter weather headline as wintry precipitation perhaps
mostly or all snow may impact the Friday morning commute in some
areas, particularly the southern two tiers of counties form
McCreary to Pike and south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

The forecast period begins with a surface low-pressure system
tracking northeastward from the Tennessee Valley, traversing the
CWA. This system straddles the short-term and extended forecast
periods. We have opted to segment the discussion based on the
phasing transition from wintry precipitation to all rain.
Consequently, this discussion begins Friday afternoon, where warm
frontal passage and diurnal warming will support precipitation
primarily as rain. The system is forecast to exit the region by late
Saturday morning. However, a brief period of wintry mix remains
plausible on the back side of the departing system as cold-air
advection returns to the region. Surface high pressure builds into
the area following the systems departure. Nevertheless, upper-level
southwesterly flow will maintain relatively mild temperatures for
Saturday.

An upper-level trough stalled over the Hudson Bay area and
an impinging shortwave trough moving off the Rocky Mountains will
interact beginning Sunday, driving the weather pattern from Sunday
through late Monday. The first of these perturbations is associated
with a dry cold front extending from the Hudson Bay trough. A key
feature is the zone of baroclinicity that the secondary low-pressure
system, originating from the Rockies, can track along. This
secondary system is more moisture-rich and should yield higher
probabilities for rain and snow beginning early Sunday morning and
persisting through late Monday morning. Precipitation type (p-type)
will be temperature-driven, with daytime temperatures generally
supporting rain, while overnight temperatures will favor a wintry
mix or snow. Model confidence is low regarding thermal profiles and
the precise track of the low-pressure center. Therefore, little
confidence is placed in deterministic snowfall totals. Behind this
system, surface high pressure will rebuild across the area for
Tuesday, but model trends indicate another system approaching by the
end of the forecast period.

The period will be characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances
traversing the area, bringing an array of precipitation types
followed by interludes of high pressure. Temperatures are generally
forecast to remain below average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

With high pressure and upper ridging passing through the region,
low clouds were mixing out nearer to the TN and VA borders at
issuance time, but MVFR lingered at the TAFS sites. Through the
next 2 to 5 hours, the low clouds should continue to mix
out/erode to the north and west with improvements through the MVFR
range and into the VFR range for all the TAF sites. VFR should
then prevail in most areas until about 03Z when clouds may begin
to spread back into the area as a cold front approaches and a
general trend toward MVFR for all TAF sites that continues into
the last 6 hours of the period. The more southern TAF sites, KLOZ
and KSME, and areas nearer to the VA border and TN border may
largely remain or return to VFR during the last 6 hours of the
period. Light west to southwest winds will prevail during the
first 18 hours of the period and then a gradual shift to the west
and then northwest at around 5KT to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP