Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
449 FXUS62 KKEY 240327 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1027 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will ride eastward across our area over the next couple of days, keeping rain chances out of the forecast in the short term. -A broad continental high will push eastward into the eastern United States early next week, resulting in moderately strengthening breezes and slight rain chances early to mid week. -Probability is increasing that a cold front will push into the Keys region early Friday. Only a modest amount of cooling is expected from the current near to slightly above normal temperatures in the wake of the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1012 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 Dry conditions persist across the Florida Keys this weekend. The KKEY evening sounding sampled an environment with a PWAT value just above the 10th percentile. GOES East satellite scans show a near complete absence of cloud cover across the Keys CWA. KBYX radar returns highlight a decent amount of reflectivity off of West Florida, but a quick check of dual pol products would reveal those objects were most likely bugs. Along the island chain, temperatures are dropping into the low to mid 70s with dew points lingering in the upper 60s. Zooming out a bit, a high pressure system is building over the Ohio Valley while a stationary front is stalled along the northern Gulf coast. The aforementioned features suggest another dry, uneventful night is expected across the Keys. The 00Z sounding did not even sample a distinct moist layer. Winds estimated by the sounding were nearly unidirectional east northeasterlies in the lowest 6000 feet, before changing to west northwesterlies above 13000 feet. Dry air lingers over the Keys, breezes are light to gentle, and no instability. If there is anything to take away from this weather pattern for tonight, conditions will be exceptional for stargazing. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 VFR conditions prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 00Z TAF period. Near surface winds will oscillate between north northeasterlies and east northeasteries on a daily cycle. Expect mostly clear skies wiht a stray cloud near FL030 with near nil rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 1033 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light, predominantly northeasterly breezes will linger this afternoon into tomorrow due to weak ridging across Florida. A continental high will push in to the eastern United States early this week, resulting in freshening northeast to easterly breezes. This high will progress eastward into the Atlantic, and after mid week, breezes should collapse as the pressure field becomes nebulous. Probability is increasing that a cold front will push southward through Keys coastal waters very late in the forecast, resulting in what appears to be the start of a prolonged period of fresh northeast to easterly breezes. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025 A modest mid to upper level ridge will ride eastward into the eastern United States through the first half of the week. This will help to reinforce the warm and dry mid levels. The boundary layer flow will strengthen out of the northeast to east as an associated surface high also migrates into the eastern United States. The boundary layer is expected to moistens and deepen with bouts of low level veering making an appearance. As a result, will maintain slight chance PoPs beginning Tuesday. This is near to slightly above guidance. No significant trend in temperatures is expected. Winds are expected to nearly collapse around mid week as the deep layered ridging gets kicked out into the Atlantic by broad troughing swinging eastward across the United States. This lull is expected to last a day as guidance is becoming more consistent with a cold front passage late Thanksgiving night or early Friday. Associated freshening breezes will be driven by a robust surface high building in behind a lifting out prefrontal trough that never reaches the Keys. The pattern is expected to remain stuck in progressive mode. As a result, north to northeasterly post cold front breezes are expected to veer quickly northeast to east by this weekend. Any cool down is expected to be only a couple to few degrees with dew points visiting the mid 60s briefly in wake of the front. While slight chance PoPs are currently advertised for the long range forecast, there is a good chance that this is on the low side. This is due to the fast veered flow and copious lower level moisture slung in by the stalling front, and very deep boundary layer. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 71 81 73 82 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 72 81 74 81 / 0 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest