Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
359 FXUS62 KKEY 170245 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1045 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Low level moisture returns briefly tonight into Friday with slight higher rain chances. -Bouts of breezy conditions will commence late overnight into Friday, lasting through the early part of the weekend. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed for portions of the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida Keys island communities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The dry spell across the Keys has been partially interrupted by partly cloudy skies and a cluster of showers in our Gulf waters. KBYX radar detected these shallow showers bubbling off of the southwest coast of mainland Florida a few hours ago. The southern portion of this activity is currently scraping the north edge of the Lower Keys. Meanwhile, winds are slow to freshen on our western offshore observation stations with gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes reporting. More moderate northeasterly breezes are observed off the Upper Keys. Temperatures sit near 80 with dewpoints hovering near 70. The influx of lower to midlevel moisture is due to a weak front progged to backdoor through the Keys tonight. This evening`s 00z KKEY sounding noted another very dry atmosphere above 850 mb with CIN overwhelming MLCAPE. While the profile is fairly wet near the surface, the moisture advecting in with this front is likely what is allowing for this popcorn convection to form in our waters. Northeast breezes are also expected to freshen following this front enhancing lift via speed convergence. Thus have opted to keep chance showers with near zero thunder chances in the short term. These PoPs along with breezy conditions will continue into tomorrow and the start of the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds in all waters of the Florida Keys tonight except the Straits of Florida. A Small Craft Advisory may be required tomorrow in Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high pressure sinking south over the eastern CONUS will keep shower coverage relatively low through Friday. Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will freshen to moderate to fresh as the pressure gradient tightens overnight into Friday. Shower coverage will increase Saturday night through Sunday night as a warm front and associated low pressure system moves through the region. Showers will be more likely across the waters south of the island chain. Drier air filters back in Monday leading to drier conditions and slackening breezes. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH tonight. While a stray shower cannot be ruled out, high uncertainty in exact timing and location will keep mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knot and adding occasional gusts to 15 to 20 knots by tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 20 10 Marathon 76 84 76 84 / 30 30 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest