Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
729 FXUS62 KKEY 190916 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 416 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layers of dry air linger across the Florida Keys through the weekend. -Northeasterly breezes gradually slackening from moderate or fresh to gentle to moderate through the work week. -Temperatures will remain at near normal values through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 Yesterday`s weather across the Keys was a bit abnormal thanks to a weak low pressure system located over western Cuba. Thick layers of cloud cover generated by the low persisted throughout the day over the Lower Keys and the Florida Straits. Breezes were able to build to moderate to fresh across the Straits. However, this weak system will migrate west into the Gulf, which will let skies return to mostly clear conditions during the second half of the week. Currently, showers generated by the low are lingering over the southwestern Straits of Florida as highlighted by the KBYX radar. GOES East imagery highlights a mixture of higher altitude debris cloud and low level stratus over the CWA. The more important feature for the day is highlighted by CIMSS MIMIC TPW imagery. A PWAT of one inch or less is moving towards the Florida Keys. Unfortunately, surface dew points are likely to be untouched by the drier upper atmosphere. Overall, today looks to be a typical November day for the Keys. .FORECAST... Active weather will occur over parts of the United States for the next few days, but the Florida Keys will not be one of those locations. A well established ridge is centered from the Yucatan to Minnesota, and that ridge will trap a sequence of cutoff lows over the western half of the country. What this means for the Florida Keys is that we will be under dry conditions through the weekend. Breezes will wax and wane as surface highs meander around the eastern CONUS. Current forecast models show a solution where a high sinks south far enough to result in light and variable breezes to be very unlikely. Expect, at the very least, gentle northeasterlies through Sunday to Monday. Ensemble guidance suggests the aforementioned ridge will slide east on Thanksgiving weekend while a low develops in the southern Plains. Frontal systems are likely to move into the Gulf during the start of next week, but it remains to be seen if any will be able to make it to the Keys. While the first half of November featured a surprisingly strong cold front, it looks like the second half will be rather quiet. Either way, enjoy the nearly hazard free conditions across the Keys for this weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a high pressure system stretching from the western Atlantic to the Florida panhandle will sustain northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Expect the high to gradually weaken during the second half of the week, which will allow breezes to slacken from moderate or fresh to gentle by the weekend. Expect slightly fresher breezes south of the island chain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 415 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 && .CLIMATE... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 71 81 72 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 79 72 80 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest