Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
415 FXUS62 KKEY 111535 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1035 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -A significant cold front traversed the Florida Keys yesterday. Much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions developed and will last for the first part of the work week. -Temperatures expected to return to slightly below normal by the end of the week as a high pressure system sets up over the northern Gulf. .MARINE... Issued at 1029 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters. Fresh to strong northerly breezes persist across all of the Florida Keys coastal waters this morning and will prevail through the afternoon. Winds will shift out of the northeast and gradually slacken through the week while an area of high pressure builds in behind the front. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will remain possible through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions will prevail along with gusty northerly winds. Continue to expect a crosswind magnitude of 20 to 25 knots for both terminals. Winds should should slacken slightly through this afternoon for MTH as they are in the shadow of the mainland. However, frequent gusts to near 25 knots will continue for the EYW terminal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 Winds continue to howl across the Florida Keys this morning following yesterday`s frontal passage. Strong northerly breezes prevail across our offshore observation stations along the Reef and show no sign of letting up soon. Meanwhile, GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery depicts mostly to partly cloudy skies streaming over the Keys with rows of shallow stratocumulus moving south in the lower levels and high cirrus flowing northeast. KBYX radar is completely free of precipitation, which is quite unsurprising considering the extremely dry airmass that was left in the cold front`s wake. Temperatures across the island chain vary quite a bit depending on how close to mainland outflow any one location is. Temperatures in the mid 60s hold in the Lower Keys while the Upper Keys sees values in the upper 50s with the Middle Keys in between. Dewpoints are spread similarly with values in the mid 50s and mid 40s observed in the Lower and Upper Keys respectively. A surface high settling over the southeast US this morning will shift our strong breezes towards the northeast. This setup will favor wind drainage from mainland Florida fanning out into our area with prevailing wind speeds and temperatures continuing to fall up until sunrise. This new cool and dry air mass in place along with ample cloud cover will keep temperatures capped at or below 70 today. CIMSS MIMIC PW has values less than half an inch painted over our CWA. Combine that with a stark inversion observed just above 900 mb from yesterday evening`s balloon sounding and you get a slam dunk for near nil rain chances. As the front continues to march out into the western north Atlantic, breezes will gradually slacken throughout today and tonight. Temperatures will stay in the 60s overnight leading into Wednesday. While this taste of dry season is certainly a change of pace, it will not last for too long. The surface ridge will stretch itself out into the Atlantic off the east coast of Florida in the second half of the week. Breezes in the Keys will slowly shift to the northeast to east as a result. Temperatures will also recover back to near 80 for the highs and lower 70s for the lows by the back half of the week. The dry portion of this airmass will last somewhat longer with rain chances kept near nil until our easterly breezes find a southerly component to let mid level tropical moisture back into the picture later this weekend. For now, enjoy the brief preview of dry season conditions while it lasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 70 64 78 70 / 0 10 0 0 Marathon 69 64 76 69 / 0 10 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest