Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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359
FXUS62 KKEY 170245
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1045 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Low level moisture returns briefly tonight into Friday with
 slight higher rain chances.

-Bouts of breezy conditions will commence late overnight into
 Friday, lasting through the early part of the weekend. Small
 Craft Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed for
 portions of the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight.

-A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida
 Keys island communities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
The dry spell across the Keys has been partially interrupted by
partly cloudy skies and a cluster of showers in our Gulf waters.
KBYX radar detected these shallow showers bubbling off of the
southwest coast of mainland Florida a few hours ago. The southern
portion of this activity is currently scraping the north edge of
the Lower Keys. Meanwhile, winds are slow to freshen on our
western offshore observation stations with gentle to moderate
northeast to east breezes reporting. More moderate northeasterly
breezes are observed off the Upper Keys. Temperatures sit near 80
with dewpoints hovering near 70.

The influx of lower to midlevel moisture is due to a weak front
progged to backdoor through the Keys tonight. This evening`s 00z
KKEY sounding noted another very dry atmosphere above 850 mb with
CIN overwhelming MLCAPE. While the profile is fairly wet near the
surface, the moisture advecting in with this front is likely what
is allowing for this popcorn convection to form in our waters.
Northeast breezes are also expected to freshen following this
front enhancing lift via speed convergence. Thus have opted to
keep chance showers with near zero thunder chances in the short
term. These PoPs along with breezy conditions will continue into
tomorrow and the start of the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds in all
waters of the Florida Keys tonight except the Straits of Florida.
A Small Craft Advisory may be required tomorrow in Hawk Channel
and the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high pressure sinking
south over the eastern CONUS will keep shower coverage relatively
low through Friday. Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will
freshen to moderate to fresh as the pressure gradient tightens
overnight into Friday. Shower coverage will increase Saturday
night through Sunday night as a warm front and associated low
pressure system moves through the region. Showers will be more
likely across the waters south of the island chain. Drier air
filters back in Monday leading to drier conditions and slackening
breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH tonight. While a
stray shower cannot be ruled out, high uncertainty in exact timing
and location will keep mention out of either TAF for now. Near
surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at near 10
knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knot and adding occasional gusts to
15 to 20 knots by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  76  86  76  86 /  30  30  20  10
Marathon  76  84  76  84 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....BT

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