Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
653 FXUS62 KKEY 040237 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1037 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 The overall makeup of our weather has not changed much in the past 24 hours. A strong surface high remains planted across the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic. However, the strongest breezes are bottled up to our north due to a weakness festering over the Bahamas. Some stronger breezes have been able to sneak into our area and winds are broadly moderate out of the northeast to east. Precipitable water remains near seasonal norms with substantial dry air present aloft. However, the lower levels have moistened some. Cape is modest, but inhibition is nearly non existent. All this has been supportive of an overall increase in convective coverage across the forecast area, most of which have remained off of land. No substantial change is expected through the overnight. The strong high will remain to our north and weak troughing, while edging closer, will remain over the Bahamas. The environment is expected to remain supportive of scattered showers. Thunderstorms should remain relatively rare due to the middling CAPE, dry air aloft, and strong shearing above 700 mb. Will maintain high chance PoPs. Expect overnight lows to range in the upper 70s with dew points in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 The combination of strong high pressure over the eastern United States and a weak trough over the Bahamas is resulting in moderate to fresh northeast to easterly breezes across Keys waters. Cautions remain in effect for the deep gulf waters until winds decrease overnight. In addition, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Keys due to an incoming northerly swell. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. With that said, a wetter than normal pattern is in place across the area, and may result in periods of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the northeast to east. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ076. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ052-072. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest