Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
216 FXUS62 KKEY 221811 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 111 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will predominate through the weekend and into early next week keeping breezes light to gentle with nil rain chances. -A broad continental high will advance into the eastern United States early next week resulting in moderately strengthening breezes and slight rain chances early to mid week. -The next significant cold front is not expected until late next week at the earliest. Consequently temperatures will range broadly near normal with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Sunday afternoon, along with near-nil rain chances. Skies will remain mostly clear with only FEW clouds near FL030, and northeast to east surface winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1122 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light, predominantly northeasterly breezes will linger through the weekend. A new continental high will push in to the eastern United States early next week, resulting in freshening northeast to easterly breezes. This high will progress eastward into the Atlantic, and after mid week, breezes should collapse as the pressure field becomes nebulous. && .FORECAST... Issued at 253 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 Expect subtle shifts in local weather over the next couple of days. The ridge across Florida is expected to weaken further as it is squeezed by a mid latitude trough passing to its north and day time heating over Florida. This should allow surface breezes to slacken a bit further and back northerly during the afternoons. While having little impact on temperatures, it should help to push dew points down a couple of degrees. Rain chances will remain near zero in the Keys due to weak forcing and still lingering warm and dry lower to mid levels. A complicated cut off low pushing into the west coast will be reflected in a sharp upper ridge riding eastward across the Plains early next week. Consequently, a surface ridge is expected to strengthen and expand as it drives into the eastern United States. This will result in a notable increase in easterly breezes early next week. While warm and dry mid level ridging will remain across our area, the increasing easterly flow will help to bump up dew points above 70 with temperatures edging a few degrees above normal. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer moisture will moisten and deepen quite a bit by Tuesday. This along with a veering profile justifies maintaining at least slight chance PoPs beginning Tuesday. The surface high will continue to drive eastward into the Atlantic through the week as a prefrontal trough swings through the northeast. As a result, the local pressure gradient will collapse and winds will slacken considerably, possibly becoming variable. Still, no major shifts to local weather is expected. However, due to the sensitivity of our weather to the timing, shape, and positioning of the boundary layer streamlines in this scenario, it is to early to be to definitive. It has been quite a while since the last cold front and finally there are glimmers of one on the horizon. While guidance has been quite inconsistent with timing and behavior of the next front, there is potential one may arrive late on Thanksgiving Day. Current indications are that winds will briefly surge out of the north to northeast. However, the progressive pattern remains and winds may quickly veer northeast to east through the upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 71 80 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 82 71 79 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest