Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
864 FXUS62 KKEY 241750 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1250 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will ride eastward across our area over the next couple of days, keeping rain chances out of the forecast in the short term. -A broad continental high will push eastward into the eastern United States early next week, resulting in moderately strengthening breezes and slight rain chances early to mid week. -Probability is increasing that a cold front will push into the Keys region early Friday. Only a modest amount of cooling is expected in the wake of the front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH island terminals through 18z Tuesday afternoon. Near-surface winds will be light to gentle out of the northeast, becoming east . && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1056 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Surface analysis places a broad, weak, quasistationary front draped across the Florida Peninsula, with a strong area of high pressure centered over the spine of the Appalachians in its wake. As the frontal feature continues to weaken, the high reigns supreme, dominating the synoptic weather for the Florida Keys. GOES visible satellite imagery is struggling to detect any cloud cover across the entire CWA, with temperatures quickly approaching 80F at this late morning hour. The pre-holiday forecast remains dry and seasonably warm. We will continue to track a cold front progged to approach the Keys around Thanksgiving, when rain chances will be reintroduced to the forecast--more on this later. Until then, no changes proposed. && .MARINE... Issued at 1056 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 A continental high will gradually push offshore over the next couple of days, resulting in freshening northeast to east breezes. As the center of this high progresses eastward into the western North Atlantic, breezes will collapse by midweek, as the pressure field becomes nebulous. Probability is increasing that a cold front will push southward through the Florida Keys coastal waters later this week before stalling, resulting in what appears to be the start of a prolonged period of freshened northeast to easterly breezes. Small Craft Advisories may be required beginning as early as Thursday night, possibly lasting through next weekend. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest