Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
087 FXUS62 KKEY 080922 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 422 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Warm and humid weekend expected across the Keys. -Seasonal King Tides will likely support bouts of minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide through the weekend. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -A significant cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Monday. This will result in much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions developing on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 A warm and humid night is ongoing across the Florida Keys as we get another taste of summer-like weather. KBYX radar has detected showers across Straits of the Florida for much of the night. This activity has since waned over the past hour to two hours. The most vigorous activity remained just outside the coverage area just north of western Cuba. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics shows mainly mid to high level clouds across eastern portions of the Keys and the Straits of Florida leaving the Island Chain under a mostly clear sky. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s and dew points are in the lower to mid 70s. Weak surface high pressure remains over the western North Atlantic centered just north of The Bahamas. This is promoting mainly east to southeast breezes of near 5 knots at marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain. .FORECAST... Weak high pressure will continue to dominate the Keys lending to an uneventful weekend in terms of weather. The main story for the weekend will be warm temperatures as well as high humidity yet again as the Keys get another gasp of summer-like weather. Expect daytime highs in the mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 70s. Dew points will also remain in the mid 70s for much of the weekend making those heat index values approach 90 degrees. Therefore, this looks to be a great weekend for any outdoor activities as summer continues. Since there will be weak flow across the area, winds also may become light and variable, especially Sunday right before the next weather maker (i.e. significant cold front) approaches the region. Moisture will be bleak across the region today as drier air moves in for the time being. However, due to the light flow, some puffy cloud-line like streamers cannot be completely ruled out today and Sunday as the sun works to bake the Island Chain. Slight moisture is return expected for tonight through Sunday night resulting in slight chances. The fun begins come Monday when the first significant "bring-it" front approaches and plows its way through the Keys. There is a good chance this front makes it all the down to almost Jamaica! This front will result in 4 things: 1. Windy conditions developing in earnest across the Island Chain as well as the surrounding coastal waters Monday afternoon continuing into late Tuesday. Fresh to strong northwest to north breezes are increasingly likely through this period, becoming north to northeast by Tuesday. 2. Much cooler temperatures (Lows 55-60 degrees Fahrenheit Monday night). There is an increasing likelihood that some record lows and even record cold highs might be challenged Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon. The two things that could make this challenging is that the waters are still quite warm surrounding the Keys and it is still early on in the season. We will be definitely watching this as it could be close. 3. Significant drop in humidity (dew points may fall into the lower to mid 40s). We cannot completely rule out dew points potentially falling into the upper 30s! 4. Moisture will be quite scarce after the passage of the front resulting in nil rain chances, especially Monday night and Tuesday. In the wake of the front, strong high pressure moves across the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday keeping breezy conditions ongoing. This high begins to weaken and flatten as it heads out into the North Atlantic mid week resulting in slowly slackening breezes as the pressure gradient relaxes. However, another high moving across the Southeast U.S. mid to late week will take its place. This will continue to promote moderate to fresh breezes throughout the Keys. Moisture will increase across the area Tuesday night through the rest of the week. However, this moisture looks to remain quite shallow most likely resulting in nothing more than perhaps an increase in the puffy cumulus clouds. The better risk for showers will be across the Straits where the moisture looks to be a little bit deeper. That is not to say a shower or two may not stray northward to the Island Chain. && .MARINE... Issued at 422 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure will continue to slide eastward across the central North Atlantic today and Sunday. This will result in mainly light east to southeast breezes, potentially becoming variable at times. A potent cold front will push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Monday with fresh to strong northerlies expected in its wake early next week. While the next high builds in behind the front, winds will shift out of the northeast and gradually slacken. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will remain possible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 422 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Near nil rain chances will leave any precipitation mention out of either TAF. Surface winds will be light and generally out of the east. && .CLIMATE... On this day In 1951, the daily record low temperature of 63F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 77 85 74 / 10 10 20 20 Marathon 85 77 85 74 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest