Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
800 FXUS62 KKEY 122037 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 337 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Breezy and very cool conditions persist in wake of Monday`s cold blast, but breezes are expected to gradually slacken throughout today after an early morning surge. -Temperatures expected to return to slightly below normal by the end of the week as high pressure, centered over the northeastern Gulf coast, weakens and stretches eastward into the Atlantic. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will peak overnight, then lull to gentle to moderate in the late morning and afternoon each day through Saturday. Thereafter, high pressure across the Southeast U.S. will gradually sink across or just north of the Florida Keys. This feature will also weaken such that the coastal waters surrounding the Keys, or at least portions, will become light and variable Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure will then lift northward and gradually strengthen, allowing for a slow freshening of breezes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 312 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds have briefly slackened this afternoon and will freshen slightly overnight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 455 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 Cool and breezy conditions prevail across the Florida Keys this morning. While not as windy as 24 hours ago, fresh north to northeast breezes are currently observed along the Reef. Temperatures vary somewhat across the island chain once again with the lower 60s recorded in the Lower Keys and upper 50s in the Upper Keys. Meanwhile, dew points have recovered back into the mid 50s after dipping into the 40s yesterday. That isn`t nearly enough moisture recovered for convective development as KBYX radar continues to be free of any precipitable echoes. GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics shows the ongoing swath of high cirrus rushing northeast over our area along with a few pockets of stratocumulus west of the Keys and off the east coast of South Florida. A surface high centered along the northeast Gulf coastline along with the retreating frontal system will be the driving force of our gradually changing conditions in the short term. Similar to yesterday morning, guidance hints at another brief morning wind surge reinforcing fresh north to northeast breezes across the Keys. This is likely aided along by the sea surface temperature different between the shallower Gulf and Bay waters versus the deep Atlantic waters of the Keys. Winds will then slacken and veer gradually throughout today and into tonight. Despite surface dewpoints being a good 10+ degrees higher than yesterday, near nil rain chances will be held as plenty of dry air aloft along with a steep inversion will stifle any potential convective development. As the high pivots into the Gulf and stretches across mainland Florida into the western North Atlantic, moderate to occasionally fresh northeast breezes will be maintained with surface ridging as the dominating feature in our sensible weather pattern. Temperatures will steadily warm throughout the week, returning to near normal values by sometime this weekend. Rain chances will stay near nil in the extended until some mid level tropical moisture can return to our atmosphere with some numerical guidance suggesting slight chance PoPs towards the end of the weekend and into early next week. Seeing that there are still a handful of differing and changing solutions for the location and strength of synoptic features that far out, both wind and PoPs forecasts are somewhat unstable for then. Stay tuned... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 70 80 70 80 / 10 10 0 0 Marathon 69 78 70 79 / 10 10 10 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest