960
FXUS62 KKEY 110914
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
414 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A significant cold front traversed the Florida Keys yesterday.
 Much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions developed
 and will last for the first part of the work week.

-Temperatures expected to return to slightly below normal by the
 end of the week as a high pressure system sets up over the
 northern Gulf.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025
Winds continue to howl across the Florida Keys this morning
following yesterday`s frontal passage. Strong northerly breezes
prevail across our offshore observation stations along the Reef
and show no sign of letting up soon. Meanwhile, GOES-19 Nighttime
Microphysics imagery depicts mostly to partly cloudy skies
streaming over the Keys with rows of shallow stratoculumus moving
south in the lower levels and high cirrus flowing northeast. KBYX
radar is completely free of precipitation, which is quite
unsurprising considering the extremely dry airmass that was left
in the cold front`s wake. Temperatures across the island chain
vary quite a bit depending on how close to mainland outflow any
one location is. Temperatures in the mid 60s hold in the Lower
Keys while the Upper Keys sees values in the upper 50s with the
Middle Keys in between. Dewpoints are spread similarly with
values in the mid 50s and mid 40s observed in the Lower and Upper
Keys respectively.

A surface high settling over the southeast US this morning will
shift our strong breezes towards the northeast. This setup will
favor wind drainage from mainland Florida fanning out into our
area with prevailing wind speeds and temperatures continuing to
fall up until sunrise. This new cool and dry air mass in place
along with ample cloud cover will keep temperatures capped at or
below 70 today. CIMSS MIMIC PW has values less than half an inch
painted over our CWA. Combine that with a stark inversion observed
just above 900 mb from yesterday evening`s balloon sounding and
you get a slam dunk for near nil rain chances. As the front
continues to march out into the western north Atlantic, breezes
will gradually slacken throughout today and tonight. Temperatures
will stay in the 60s overnight leading into Wednesday.

While this taste of dry season is certainly a change of pace, it
will not last for too long. The surface ridge will stretch itself
out into the Atlantic off the east coast of Florida in the second
half of the week. Breezes in the Keys will slowly shift to the
northeast to east as a result. Temperatures will also recover back
to near 80 for the highs and lower 70s for the lows by the back
half of the week. The dry portion of this airmass will last
somewhat longer with rain chances kept near nil until our easterly
breezes find a southerly component to let mid level tropical
moisture back into the picture later this weekend. For now, enjoy
the brief preview of dry season conditions while it lasts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters of the
Florida Keys. From synopsis, strong northerly breezes will be at
their peak early this morning in the wake of a cold front that
pushed across the Florida Keys marine zones yesterday. Winds will
shift out of the northeast and gradually slacken through the week
while an area of high pressure builds in behind the front.
Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will remain possible
through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the TAF period,
with near-nil rain chances and rising CIGs. Crosswinds will continue
to be a factor through the morning hours, with winds from the north
to northeast at 15 to 20 knots, gusting to near 25 knots. By this
afternoon, winds should begin to slacken slightly and clock around
to the northeast, reducing the crosswind component.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1980, 22.75" of rain fell at Key West as Hurricane
Jeanne was stalled several hundred miles to the west, making it the
wettest day ever recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West
date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  70  64  78  70 /   0  10   0   0
Marathon  69  64  76  69 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....MC
Data Acquisition.....MC

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