211
FXUS63 KLBF 012034
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
334 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry and mild conditions will promote fire weather concerns
  through this upcoming week with near-critical conditions
  likely Sunday and Tuesday.

- A upper-level system will graze the area late in the week
  bringing low-end (< 20%) potential for precipitation over our
  northwest zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Broad troughing continues to dig south across the middle Mississippi
Valley. Amplified northerly flow in the wake of this feature is
helping to promote strong CAA which has inhibited the diurnal warmup
across the region today even with the absence of greater cloud
cover. Highs have struggled to climb out of the 40s for east of
Highway 83 where values to the west have reached the lower 50s.
Surface high pressure immediately to the east has kept winds on the
light side out of the southwest with speeds around 10-15 mph or less
for much of the area.

For tonight...high pressure will continue to depart to the east-
southeast with local influence from the upper-level troughing likely
to decrease simultaneously. Shortwave ridging will quickly build in
with subsidence aloft keeping the skies clear to mostly clear
overnight tonight. Winds will gradually veer to the west while
remaining elevated as the pressure gradient constricts thanks to an
approaching surface trough from the northwest. Gusts will be
strongest north of the Platte Valley where peak speeds of 25 to 30
mph cannot be ruled out. The westerly flow with invading dry air
will support another cool night with near seasonable values outside
of the Sandhills where the stronger wind gusts will support
continued mild lows.

Sunday/Sunday night...the period of greatest concern in the short-
term owing to increased fire weather concerns. Continued gusts
during the overnight leading into Sunday will inhibit humidity
recovery in our west. This limited fall to start the day will only
work to speed up the warm up and humidity fall through the day. A
broad surface trough will extend northeast to southwest across much
of western Nebraska by midday with an approaching cool front likely
bisecting the region. Ahead of this, breezy southwest winds will
support drier air working in and daytime highs climbing into the
middle to upper 70s beneath anomalous temperatures aloft. Winds will
flip to the west and then northwest as the front moves in. This will
coincide with peak heating and humidity minimums falling into the
middle to upper teens across our far west and southwest. Though
winds do appear likely to gust behind this boundary, duration
appears to be limited in addition to an influx of Pacific moisture.
This will limit the window of fire weather concerns and likely
prevent many, if any, locations from reaching Red Flag Warning
criteria for the 3-hour duration. Will characterize near-critical to
briefly critical (on the order of an hour or two) before conditions
improve. Because of this, no headlines in planned. A secondary surge
of cooler air arrives later in the afternoon/evening and this
stronger CAA will quickly curtail fire weather concerns by early
evening. The influx of greater low-level moisture will keep lows on
the warmer side with values only in the low to middle 30s west to
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Monday through Wednesday...upper-level flow will become more zonal
as low-amplitude ridging settles across the southern CONUS. In the
post-frontal airmass Monday, daytime temperatures fall into the
upper 50s to lower 60s under partly cloudy skies. Even with this
cooldown, values remain near to above seasonable norms. A weak
shortwave will cross the Front Range late Monday into early Tuesday
but enter an increasingly dry environment thus no precipitation is
expected. Returning southerly flow ahead of this feature will
support another warm up with temperatures returning to the upper 60s
to middle 70s. This will again increase fire weather concerns,
particularly for southwest Nebraska, ahead of an approaching cool
front. A quicker progression of this boundary will mean weaker winds
during the daytime so concerns are slightly decreased when compared
to Sunday. Again in the post-frontal airmass, expecting a relative
cooldown for Wednesday though daytime temperatures reaching the
upper 50s to lower 60s remain above climatological highs.

Thursday through Saturday...brief upper-level ridging arrives by
late Wednesday with subsequent breakdown as a trough arrives into
the Pacific Northwest. This supports another mild day Thursday with
gustier winds and perhaps more fire weather concerns continuing into
Friday. Details are far from certain but the expectation of above
normal temperatures with breezy winds will bear watching in the
coming days. Flow aloft gradually transitions to northwesterly with
multiple disturbances tracking northwest to southeast across the
Plains. Each system looks to bring an infusion of Pacific air and
modest moisture quality but this may only support increasing mid-
level clouds. The latest model blend has populated some limited
precipitation probabilities in our north by late Friday into early
Saturday. This largely goes against individual ensemble
probabilities (i.e. GEFS/EPS) which both denote < 10% potential for
exceeding 0.1" for any 24-hour period. As a result, believe the
inherited PoPs are fairly bullish and believe there will be some
wavering of these values in the coming days. For the weekend, NWP
solutions begin to diverge in evolution of the upper-level pattern.
Overall though, more amplified ridging appears probable for the
central or western CONUS and this will likely support continued
cooler temperatures with recurring low-end chances for precipitation
heading into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Skies will remain mostly sunny to partly clear with only passing
high clouds likely this afternoon through the overnight. Winds
will primarily be west-southwesterly but flip to the northwest-
north following the passage of a frontal boundary during the day
Sunday. Gusts could increase invof this boundary with peak
speeds around 25 knots possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ