374
FXUS63 KLBF 132100
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
300 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday afternoon
  across the Panhandle, Sandhills, and northern Nebraska.
  Temperatures potentially break record highs, with low
  humidity, and gusty westerly winds prompting a Red Flag
  Warning.

- A system Sunday night into Monday brings our next chances for
  precipitation, as well as a pattern shift to cooler
  temperatures.

- A fairly active pattern is expected next week, bringing
  additional chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures
  through the week, though confidence in precipitation timing,
  amounts, and type remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Upper level ridging continues across the western United States,
which is supporting well above average high temperatures across the
region. As of 1 PM CST, several locations across western and north
central Nebraska have reached at least 70 degrees, which is nearly
20 degrees warmer than our seasonal average. 850 mb temperatures
remain around 18 to 20 degC today and are expected to remain so
overnight. This will lead to some more mild conditions, with highs
expected to remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Additionally,
westerly winds overnight will contribute to poor humidity recovery,
especially across western Nebraska.

The mild temperatures and poor humidity recovery sets up potential
for critical fire weather conditions on Friday. With the upper level
ridge in place, and warmer temperatures aloft, highs across western
and north central Nebraska will be challenging, and potentially
breaking, high temperature records across the region. The latest NBM
run has continued to underperform with this week`s anomalously high
temperatures, so have continued to keep the forecast towards the
higher end of guidance. This puts forecast highs tomorrow in the
upper 70s to potentially lower 80s across the region, nearly 25
degrees warmer than seasonal. HAve also noted, with the NBM keeping
temperatures cooler than observations, this has overinflated
relative humidity values, so have leaned more towards the HRRR
solution, which has more accurately captured the lower dewpoints and
lower humidity values.

As stronger mixing develops in the boundary layer Friday morning,
will start to see westerly winds increase, especially across the
Panhandle, Sandhills, and northern Nebraska. Winds remain steady
around 15 to 20 mph, with afternoon gusts up to 35 mph. As this
occurs, we will also be dealing with the aforementioned near record
heat, and humidity values as low as 15 percent. Given this
combination, went ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning across western
Nebraska, the Sandhills, and northern Nebraska, as critical fire
weather conditions are likely. By the evening, should start to see
winds decrease as the boundary layer decouples and slightly better
moisture builds back across the region.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Saturday morning, a dry cold front tracks south across the region,
bringing northerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Behind
the front, highs this weekend moderate back to the 60s. While these
are somewhat cooler temperatures, these remain above seasonal highs
by around 10 to 15 degrees, as we are normally seeing highs in the
low 50s this time of year. The cooler temperatures will also help
keep relative humidity values above critical fire weather
thresholds, so should see a lessened concern this weekend. With no
precipitation this weekend, expecting this will mostly be a cooler
and generally pleasant weekend.

Attention then turns to a system tracking across the Plains Sunday
night after midnight. An upper level trough is expected to track
across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas, ejecting a surface low
off the Rocky Mountains. As this system tracks across the Plains, we
see increasing chances for precipitation after midnight lasting
through the day on Monday. This system also ushers in more seasonal
daytime highs, with highs returning around the low 50s, though there
is still some uncertainty in exact temperatures at this range. While
the bulk of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain, still
thinking that we could see some snow begin to mix in, especially
early Monday morning. Still seeing some suggestions for snow in
ensemble guidance and even some suggestion in deterministic
guidance. Precipitation amounts and type still remain lower
confidence, however, guidance is remaining somewhat consistent in
the timing of precipitation.

The upper level pattern remains fairly active next week, with
several systems bringing at least some potential for precipitation
through the week. However, given the low confidence in timing beyond
the early week system, ensemble guidance has been quite inconsistent
in timing with these various surface systems and precipitation
amounts. What is more certain is a return to a cooler pattern, with
highs remaining more seasonal, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
However, even in the relatively noisy ensemble data, beginning to
see some signals that wintry precipitation could be expected mid to
late week. Again, timing and amounts remain at low confidence, but
this changing pattern is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Skies remain mostly clear
throughout the TAF period, outside of a few sporadic high clouds.
Winds remain fairly light out of the west today, with a slight
change to southerly this evening, switching back to westerly
overnight. By late tomorrow morning into the afternoon, winds become
gusty out of the west, especially across the Sandhills, Panhandle,
and northern Nebraska.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Confidence is increasing in high temperatures approaching and
potentially breaking daily high records across western and north
central Nebraska on Friday afternoon. Current forecast highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s are around 25 degrees warmer than our
seasonal average. This afternoon, highs are already breaking into
the mid to upper 70s, remaining warmer than several of the warmest
model guidance temperatures. This is also causing model guidance to
overestimate the humidity in the atmosphere. With this in mind, have
kept temperatures to the warmer end of forecast guidance and lowered
the humidity forecast for Friday afternoon.

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
across most of western and north central Nebraska Friday afternoon.
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Fire Weather Zones 204, 206,
and 208, where critical conditions are most expected. Tonight,
warmer temperatures are expected aloft, which will keep surface
lows more mild, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Westerly winds will contribute to poor overnight humidity
recovery, with overnight recovery around 50 to 70 percent.

By late morning, westerly winds begin to increase across western
Nebraska, with steady winds around 15 to 20 mph gusting up to 35
mph. Afternoon temperatures on Friday will be challenging and
potentially breaking daily high temperature records. With these
anomalously high temperatures, afternoon humidity values are
expected to drop into the 15 to 20 percent range. Given the overlap
of low RH values, gusty winds, and high temperatures, have issued
the Red Flag Warning for Friday morning into Friday evening. By the
evening, winds begin to decrease and humidity is expected to recover
to around 60 to 70 percent.

A cold front tracks through the region early Saturday morning,
shifting winds to northerly. Behind the front, slightly cooler
temperatures are expected, with highs in the 60s Saturday and
Sunday. These cooler temperatures will usher in humidity values
around 35 to 40 percent across the region, and winds are not
expected to gust up to 25 mph, which should limit fire weather
concerns this weekend. A more active pattern ushers in cooler
temperatures and greater precipitation potential next week, which
should continue to keep fire weather concerns limited.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ Friday for NEZ204-206-208.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Richie