Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
261 FXUS64 KLCH 301115 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 615 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure aloft will keep a dry air mass in place through midweek with no chance for rain, very warm days, and mild nights. - An slight increase in moisture to go along with a developing upper level disturbance will bring a small chance for rain late in the week into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 An upper level ridge responsible for creating relatively dry conditions past few days is forecast to break down today as an upper level trough descends through the Southern Plains. Because this feature has developed over a dry continental airmass with no source region for moisture, conditions will remain dry through this evening. However, guidance has been suggestive increased cloud coverage throughout the afternoon where RH is higher near 300mb. Highs will trend near 90F with light and variable winds. Thus, our pattern of dry afternoons will continue into the midweek as light north winds are reinforced while highs trend toward low 90`s and overnight temperatures range from low to upper 60`s from interior location down to the coast. Worth noting surface RH will be fairly low, between 30 - 45 %, during the afternoons which increases susceptibility of dry fuels to burn. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 By Thursday, troughing along the Midwest deepens south across the Lower Mississippi Valley while surface flow gains stronger east components. This pattern change will help bring more moisture to the region but unfortunately it does not translate to much rainfall potential. Whilst isolated activity is possible, it is favored best toward the Atchafalaya Basin. Downstream, a high pressure cell will build over Ontario and shift over the New England states by Friday. Locally this feature exhibits ridging to the MS/LA Gulf Coast while slack troughing develops along the western Gulf. PoPs increase across offshore, but guidance is hesitant to bring these chances of rainfall inland given a shore parallel wind gradient. Do believe isolated activity is possible toward the coast, but will be limited due to low surface RH and a NE-E wind regime. Hereafter into the weekend, uncertainty increase as deterministic guidance has held on to the idea of a upper level troughing deepening offshore. However, placement of this feature continues to suggest offshore flow with southerly moisture advection lying primarily east of the Mississippi. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Although mid to high lvl clouds will thicken today, VFR conditions are anticipated. Winds will be light and northeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Surface high pressure ridging down into the coastal waters through mid week will keep a light to occasionally modest offshore flow to go along with mainly low seas. By the end of the week, the surface high will be ridging down from the Mid-Atlantic area, producing more of an easterly flow. No significant chance of shower activity is noted through mid week, with shower activity increasing toward the end of the week with an upper level disturbance developing over the northern Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 The forecast pattern will not change much over the next few days with high pressure at the surface and aloft over the region. Therefore, a dry air mass will remain in place with no significant chance for rainfall through midweek. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to be between 30 and 45 percent today with little change through Wednesday. Surface winds will remain from mainly the north and northeast at less than 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 89 64 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 89 69 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 89 68 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 89 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05