Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
925 FXUS64 KLCH 021104 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 604 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A slight increase in moisture to go along with a developing upper level disturbance will bring a periodic low end chances for rain today into this weekend. - Moisture increases further by Sunday as the upper level disturbance moves overhead, allowing rain chances to ramp up a bit Sunday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Surface analysis shows broad high pressure over much of the eastern CONUS, providing a light a variable flow as well as mostly clear skies across the forecast area tonight. Aloft, ridging also dominates much of the CONUS, while a weakness is noted over the northern Gulf. This upper level weakness should gradually expand and strengthen through the short term period, eventually becoming a more significant feature by the weekend. As it does so, it will allow for moisture to steadily increase overhead (especially south of I-10 into the coastal waters) today through the weekend. As moisture begins to increase today, expect isolated to scattered daytime heating driven convection to develop this afternoon. Otherwise, expect another hot early Oct day with highs topping out near 90. Tomorrow and Sat, surface high pressure strengthening over the east CONUS will largely hinger convection inland, with the best rain chances setting up along/south of I-10 and through the offshore waters, with near zero rain chances elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 By Sunday, moisture begins to increase further from the southeast, with PWATs surging above the 90th percentile by the later part of the day. At the same time, a weakness aloft will be directly overhead providing support for convection throughout Sun into Sun night. Sun night into Mon, the upper level weakness becomes absorbed into a larger trough to the NW, allowing ridging to gradually develop overhead through the work week. Even as ridging develops aloft moisture overhead remains elevated, generally between the 75th and 90th percentile. This will keep a daily chance for at least scattered convection in the forecast through the end of the forecast period. Temperature wise, highs will run in the mid 80s to low 90s through the week (near to slightly above normal) while lows range from the upper 60s to low 70s (above normal). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A few showers and storms will be possible today through early evening, however mostly VFR conditions are anticipated. Winds will be under 10kts and east to southeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Modest mainly easterly flow and lower seas will remain through today. Hereafter, ridging from the Mid-Atlantic area will build toward the Gulf Coast, allowing winds and seas to steadily strengthen. Winds/seas will build through Friday and remain elevated through the weekend, and a small craft advisory will likely be required. In addition, shower activity will increase tomorrow into the weekend with an upper level disturbance developing over the northern Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Surface winds will remain light to moderate out of the ENE today and Friday with occasional higher gusts. Moisture will remain near normal through the end of the week, before increasing significantly over the weekend. Some isolated to scattered convection will be possibly today through Sat. A disturbance offshore along with the significant increase in moisture will allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms by Sunday into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 90 64 88 62 / 10 0 0 0 LCH 90 69 88 67 / 30 10 20 0 LFT 89 69 87 67 / 30 10 20 0 BPT 90 70 88 68 / 20 20 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...05