Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
821 FXUS64 KLIX 240533 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1133 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - A cold front will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to the area Monday night through Tuesday. A few strong storms are possible Monday night into Tuesday. - A significant cool down to slightly below normal Thanksgiving Day through Friday night. - Borderline Small Craft conditions tonight into Tuesday morning. Solid Small Craft Advisory winds/seas Wednesday night into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 The upper level pattern across the country is quite progressive at this time, which is pretty typical of this time if year. Current state of the upper levels is trough exiting the Northeast, ridge axis just east of the Mississippi Valley and low now east of the 4- Corners. As that upper low moves into the Central Plains it will be opening up. Even so, a surface low will be developing nearly underneath it. A cold front appendant to the low will be moving into the east Texas late in the day today. Farther east, over the northern Gulf Coast and local CWA, warm front will be lifting northward through the late morning and afternoon hours. The low level moisture surge should feel pretty obvious with dewpoints jumping upwards of 15 degrees. Model soundings show low/mid level winds increasing pretty much every single hour from 15Z to 21Z. That`ll aide in moisture influx in those layers in those hours. So when it comes to rain chances, probably won`t see much of anything until a few hours afternoon, starting with spotty showers. From MON 21Z to TUE 06Z, we possibly start to see more substantial updrafts due to now decent moisture in the column, a little instability aloft, and shear increasing. However, its not across the entire CWA. KMSY and KGPT soundings don`t have nearly the shear values that KBTR and KMCB have. So, am in very much agreement with SPC`s region of Marginal Severe Risk in our CWA. For the remainder of the night, CAMs suggest a general weakening trend of convection. That falls in line with model soundings which show stronger low level inversion developing as well as weakening winds which translates to weaker shear. Makes sense when you look at what the trough to the north should be doing which is weakening and pulling north. There could be some lingering showers through Tuesday as cold front associated with this system washes out. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Global models in good agreement that a secondary and deeper trough moving through the mid section of the country late Tuesday into Wednesday will drive a continental airmass well past the local area to the southern Gulf late week. That puts FROPA by around sunrise Wednesday morning for all but coastal areas. Moderate CAA will substantially drop temps (15+ degrees) and maintain that beyond Thanksgiving. Probably don`t moderate back to climo normals until next weekend. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the period. However, there is a lower probability that BR develops at KMCB which may bring down visibility into IFR or MVFR category. Otherwise, minimal impacts with relatively light winds tonight into Monday. Late in the afternoon, a few showers may develop over the region but probabilities really don`t increase enough to have them in the TAFs until after 00Z. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Broad surface ridge centered over the Ohio River Valley is steadily moving eastward. As it does so, offshore winds will be rotating around to east and then southeast through the early morning hours. Farther west, an upper level low is located near the 4-Corners region. It will be quickly moving eastward and into the Central Plains by late in the day today. A surface low will develop in the vicinity of the upper low and follow its path into OK and KS. The local pressure gradient will tighten in response to that feature. Thus, expect the southerly winds to increase to at least Exercise Caution speeds from west to east over the coastal waters late this aftn/evn. Models show BL winds peaking in the low 20s around 06Z on Tuesday and quickly falling off to 15kts or less by mid morning Tuesday. May need to issue a short term Small Craft Advisory for open Gulf waters. 48 hours after that, another (stronger) cold front will push through the region. The upper trough looks to be much deeper and broader which will likely translate to stronger winds that persist longer than 12 hrs. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 51 78 64 / 0 0 20 70 BTR 77 55 81 67 / 0 0 20 70 ASD 77 52 79 64 / 0 0 10 30 MSY 77 60 82 69 / 0 0 10 30 GPT 77 55 76 66 / 0 0 0 20 PQL 78 51 78 63 / 0 0 0 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME