Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
673 FXUS64 KLIX 211845 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1245 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1022 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Fog potential returns Saturday morning. - Another weak cold front will bring additional chances for rain Monday night through Wednesday afternoon. - Behind the weak cold front, beginning Wednesday, temperatures begin dropping to more seasonable levels with nighttime lows in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1022 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 As the impulse that caused the rain this morning moves east we may see a few remnant showers this afternoon and evening. High temperatures today and tomorrow will continue to be unseasonably warm, around 80 give or take, as will the overnight low tonight. With the departure of the impulse we will see a short period of almost zonal flow with relatively high pressure in the area. Winds will continue to be generally light and out of the south. The main concern overnight tonight will be build down of a low stratus deck and the possibility of dense fog again through the mid-morning hours. High RH and calm air, plus the moisture from the rain we got today, will support the foggy conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1022 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Expect Saturday night through Monday to be status quo, with benign weather and temps well above normal. The next feature of interest is a low pressure system moving into the desert southwest and then northeastward. By the time it impacts us it will be in the form of a weak front bringing more needed rain Monday night through late Wednesday. Rain totals associated with the front will be minimal along the coast and up to an inch in the southwest Mississippi counties. Behind the front on Wednesday night, expect a nice cooldown with temperatures becoming much more seasonable, like overnight lows in the 40s. The caveat here is that over the past few weeks we have seen the models advertising "something" strong occurring a week out and by the time that "something" arrives it has diminished or disappeared. So, stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 A few stray areas of rain showers may develop in the southwest portion of the area this afternoon and evening. The primary concern, though, is development of a lowering stratus deck grading into a radiative fog situation late night through the mid morning hours. This will result in VIS in the 1/2SM range at most terminals for a short period of time around sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1022 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Winds and waves remain out of the south and light through Sunday morning with winds turning out of the north after that. However, another system will push winds and seas higher late Monday into Tuesday. Southerly flow should increase back into the 15 to 20 knot range over this period. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will also develop over the waters as this next storm system moves through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 79 64 78 51 / 80 10 10 0 BTR 83 67 81 54 / 60 10 20 0 ASD 81 63 81 55 / 40 10 10 0 MSY 84 67 82 61 / 40 0 20 0 GPT 77 64 80 58 / 50 10 10 0 PQL 79 62 81 55 / 40 10 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...DS