096
FXUS64 KLIX 202343
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
543 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- A weak cold front will bring a chance for rain tonight and
  Friday.

- Another weak cold front will bring additional chances for rain
  Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Once again the day began rather foggy and like the previous
mornings the fog mixed out quite quick. Fog lingered over marine
areas a tad longer but between 16 and 17z it was pretty much gone
everywhere. We were warming up quickly across the area with
locations that became mostly sunny the fastest already approaching
80 before noon.

The next 36 to 48 hours we will see activity increase but overall
the impacts will be quite tame compared to what we could see this
time of the year. Currently we still have ridging over the Gulf
however the ridge axis is east of the area now and southwest flow
is increasing over the region. A s/w is currently lifting northeast
across the Mexico/NM/AZ border however, a ridge, not quite in
phase with our Gulf ridge, stretched NNW across the central Plains
and into sern Canada will severely hinder the s/w`s eastward
progress causing it to lift more NNE along the lee of the Rockies
and just into western portions of the central Plains overnight
tonight. The ridge eventually blocking its eastward progress will
finally erode thanks to it and a much stronger push south from a
deeper trough currently digging into the Upper MS Valley. The s/w
will finally begin to slide more to the east tomorrow but by this
time it will be a shadow of its former intensity and well north
moving through the Mid MS Valley and into the OH Valley overnight
Friday and early Saturday. The biggest impact with this track is
most of the forcing and support will be well north of the region
and in fact this only slightly and more so temporarily flattens
the rather persistent southern Plains and Gulf ridge. The ridge
starts to quickly rebuild overnight Friday. There is a piece of
energy showing up well on GOES19 WV farther to the south which
will be moving into southeastern TX this afternoon and evening
which may be enough to help provide some convection tomorrow.

At the sfc things aren`t looking much better for rain as the sfc low
will begin to take shape later today over the southern and central
Plains. The sfc low will still be quite broad with generally lower
pressure from southern IL into northeastern OK by midday tomorrow.
The associated front will have almost no support to push south
possibly finally drifting into the region Saturday before stalling
north of the coast Saturday night. The only real reason it even
makes it this far south is because of the sfc high pressing east
across the Plains and into the Mid and Lower MS Valley by Saturday
night.

With this there is not a lot suggesting a good chance of rain
tomorrow during the day however, there is still hope for some light
rain and it may actually be overnight tonight mainly after 6z and
before 15z tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers look to develop
in the Gulf and move north and north-northeast across the eastern
half to 2/3rds of the CWA. This will be associated with an increase
in the LL jet coming north out of the Gulf and isentropic lift/WAA;
quite typical for this time of the year ahead of an approaching
system. This actually seems to be the more confident and better
chance for rain but lets be honest we are likely only talking
about a few hundredths, maybe 2 tenths at best with that activity.
This will quickly end tomorrow morning as the LL jet lifts out of
the area providing mainly weak LL divergence. The next best
chance for rain will be across the northwestern portions of the
CWA around midday and through the afternoon. Convection to our
west could be strong enough that even with the greatly decreasing
support it may still be able to persist as it moves into
southwest MS and some of the adjacent LA parish. Otherwise with
the lift displaced well north, the front (not much of one) not
even getting here till Saturday, quickly rebuilding ridge, and
quickly lifting LL jet the storm potential tomorrow has really
backed off quite considerably from what it appeared like a few
days ago. If we were more confident about one thing it would be
the WAA/isentropic lift showers during the overnight/early morning
hours along and east of the I-55 corridor.

With rain less likely and no front expected until maybe late
Saturday it will be warm the next few days. Widespread highs in the
lower to mid 80s tomorrow and Saturday are expected.

As for fog, that should not be a major issue tonight. There will
likely be some light fog around but overall we should have enough
mixing overnight with more of a low stratus deck. That may not be
the case Friday night and Saturday morning. Again with no frontal
passage clearing the area out, boundary layer moisture will still
be in abundance. There will be no convection overnight to provide
mixing and with a very weak front only just entering the Lower MS
Valley (frontolysis already well underway) winds will slack off
and if we can cool enough fog will likely develop during the early
morning hours. Cooling off enough may be the biggest thorn in the
fog potential Saturday morning as we may just not be able to cool
down enough. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 135 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Overall not much to say about Sunday other than it looks like the
ridge will dominate the Lower MS Valley again and the next system
moving into the 4 corners will try to break to cycle of breaking
through this ridge as we head into next week. Highs may be a touch
cooler as LL temps actually drop a few degrees but overall it will
be a rather uneventful day.

Looking at you Thanksgiving Holiday week, it has been almost a
month of the models consistently showing the next big western
CONUS southern stream system breaking through this ridge and
finally flipping the pattern and all have failed. About 6 to 7
days out things looks interesting but as we get closer and closer
the system is weaker and the ridge flattens some but causes each
system to open up and lift. Well, il looks like the next
opportunity will be Monday night and into Tuesday but it is
already showing indications that it will also lift northeast
quickly out of the 4 corners. Even if it does lift out quickly
into the central Plains and open up as it moves into the Mid and
Upper MS Valley it does appear to have some additional support
form the northern branch unlike the past system. There will be
another strong s/w dropping south of out western/central Canada
and even the disturbance we are monitoring opens up there will be
more support to help drive a slightly strong cold front farther
south. This doesn`t mean we will get a strong cold front but the
front will have a better chance of better chance of getting into
the area. This system does flatten the ridge once again with some
forcing and lift mainly from cooling/falling hghts and slightly
strong mid lvl winds there shout looks like this may try to
end thatld be a better chance of widespread
rain Monday night and into Tuesday.

Again we just said that the ridge will flatten at first so the cold
front will likely get down into our area and stall around the coast
or in the coastal waters Tuesday. It may linger around this area for
about a day or so continuing to provide a chance for additional
showers Tuesday and into Wednesday but that northern branch trough
mentioned earlier will help to dig a L/W trough over much of the
eastern half of the CONUS which should finally help to drive the
cold front into the Gulf late Wednesday or Thanksgiving day
hopefully finally giving us that Fall weather once again. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Prevailing VFR at all terminals this evening and this should
persist through the rest of today. Expect increasing cloud cover
overnight as we see some showers start to develop west of us and
drift this way by early Friday morning. This could bring some low
cigs for some terminals, mainly BTR and MCB. PROB30`s for most
terminals starting early Friday morning and lasting the afternoon
as possible showers move through, but low confidence on this.
While cannot completely rule out fog overnight, probabilities are
much lower than previous nights as mixing should be better.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Overall not a lot of impacts in the forecast for the coastal
waters. A low pressure system will pass well north of the region
tomorrow and Friday night. This will try to push a cold front into
the area but the front will likely stall along or north of the
coast. Southerly winds will increase to around 15 knots with
slightly higher seas tonight and tomorrow. Scattered showers and a
low threat of thunderstorm will accompany this weakening front on
Friday and Friday evening. Winds will calm over the weekend to
less than 10 knots as a high pressure system over the eastern Gulf
becomes more dominant over the waters. However, another low
pressure system will once again push winds and seas higher on
Monday and Tuesday. Southerly flow should increase back into the
15 to 20 knot range over this period. Another round of showers and
a few thunderstorms will also develop over the waters as this
next storm system moves through. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  80  63  79 /  40  60  10  20
BTR  67  83  65  81 /  30  50  10  20
ASD  62  81  62  81 /  10  40  10  10
MSY  68  84  66  82 /  20  40  10  10
GPT  64  77  64  80 /  10  50  10  10
PQL  60  79  62  81 /   0  40  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...CAB