Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
403 FXUS64 KLIX 101127 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 527 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Temperatures will moderate Wednesday. Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday through at least Saturday. - Little or no rain expected through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Performed a brief gridded forecast update this morning to follow overnight observational trends matched with near-term guidance. Main focus was on very shallow radiational fog developing in patchy areas across the CWA. Funneling in on one specific model was a bit of a challenge given 1) the shallow/variable nature of the fog right at or just above the SFC and 2) finding guidance that has matched trends. Did pull in the NBM and blended on the CONSshort to provide the best near-term forecast, with mention of patchy fog for a good amount of the area. Meanwhile, light SW return flow has brought in shallow/thin low-level clouds across the Atchafalaya Basin per GOES-16 night Fog and Nighttime Microphysics imagery. Overall, fog will be very patchy, but highly variable in thickness. Caution is advised for those traveling though during to just after sunset to monitor for quick/sudden drops in VIS. All fog will dissipate after sunrise revealing a nice day today! Expecting to see highs about 8-12 degrees warmer than yesterday underneath sunny skies. Didn`t make any adjustments for today as guidance/trends remains on track. KLG && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A broad upper trough covered much of the country east of the Rockies. A strong shortwave was racing southeastward through Montana, with ridging remaining along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, the axis of high pressure extended from the Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast. An Alberta Clipper type surface low was moving into Minnesota this evening. Skies were clear this evening with temperatures generally in the upper 30s and lower 40s away from Lake Pontchartrain. Temperatures may actually warm a couple degrees toward sunrise as cirrus arrives from the northwest. That should also lower the potential for patchy fog. Don`t expect it to become widespread. The Montana shortwave will already be over Tennessee Wednesday evening, and closing off a low over New England Thursday evening. The surface low will already be over Lake Ontario Wednesday evening with a cold front to the northern Gulf Coast. Precipitable water values remain near or below the 50th percentile (occasionally below the 25th percentile ahead of, and behind the cold front. This is going to make it difficult to generate clouds, let alone rain. Highs Wednesday should be mid 60s to lower 70s across most or all of the area. Cold advection in the wake of the front probably won`t be noticeable in low temperatures Wednesday night and could actually be warmer than the current temperatures. Thursday highs likely to be upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The longwave trough will remain over the eastern half of the country through the weekend. The Pacific Coast upper ridge will briefly shift eastward into the southern Plains and then eastward along the Gulf Coast, reaching the Atlantic Coast by next Tuesday night. the next cold front will reach the local area Saturday night or Sunday. That cold front may provide the only chance of precipitation until about this time next week, and even at that, we`d probably be talking about less than one-quarter inch. Onshore winds will bring a warmup, as compared to Thursday, for Friday and Saturday. The weekend frontal passage will bring a brief shot of colder air to the area Sunday into Monday, with maybe 24-36 hours of below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Main impacts will be from shallow/thin SFC to near SFC FG (mainly MIFG) across mostly all area terminals this morning. The thin/patchy nature will continue to lead to bouncing VIS/CIG observations causing highly variable/swinging flight categories. However, all areas of FG/MIFG will dissipate shortly after sunrise revealing VFR for all area terminals through the rest of the day and overnight hours tonight. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1137 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be necessary Wednesday night into Thursday, then again Sunday or Sunday night with cold air advection behind the passage of cold fronts. Otherwise, wind speeds should stay well below 15 knots. Forecast dew points for Friday and Saturday would suggest that there is at least a low end threat of sea fog in a few locations where water temperatures are in the mid 50s or cooler. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 66 36 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 69 39 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 68 38 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 70 47 61 48 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 67 40 60 45 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 66 37 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...KLG MARINE...RW