Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
561 FXUS64 KLIX 152328 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 528 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 527 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 - Another cold night tonight expected, with lows in the mid to upper 20`s for the I-10/12 corridor on north. Freezing temperatures extend south into the southern parts of the Atchafalaya Basin. - Will monitor fog potential building back to the region mainly Wednesday and Thursday morning. Confidence in coverage/density remains low for now. - Next light rain chances return on Wednesday, but could see greater coverage on Thursday with the next front. No arctic air or freezing temperatures expected behind this front, while looking warm this upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Quite the chilly start to the day! We had lows reach around 22-25 for colder locations of SW MS and drainage locations, with wind chills in the teens. Cold to start off the day, as we are looking at highs in the upper 40`s to low 50`s. Didn`t adjust anything as guidance looks on track. Winds remain breezy, not as windy as yesterday as high pressure has settled into the region. Did make rather noticeable adjustments also to dewpoints as we`re trending on the 5th-10th percentile, which makes sense given the dry continental airmass in place which will further be supported by afternoon mixing keeping dewpoints low. We`ll dive back into yet another cold night tonight, underneath the maximized influence of this surface high providing strong radiational cooling under clear skies/calm winds. Took a careful approach here, as guidance was very much on the warmer side last night and is again tonight (nearing the 90th percentile, actually) However, meteorological parameters might oppose this recency bias some, and did decide to lower back towards the 75th with emphasis on drainage locations. What this in turn does is bring around 25-27 degree lows mainly targeting the Pearl River basin on east, closer to the surface high. Areas like PQL reaching 25 seems plausible, and could be colder in a few traditionally colder locations. Freezing line will dip south into the Atchafalaya basin to near/at Houma but the southshore (greater metro NOLA) should reach the upper 30`s to low 40`s. Warmer by about 8-12 degrees on Tuesday as return flow with the surface high drifting east. Will have to keep an eye on any light/patchy fog potential for the Atchafalaya basin Wednesday morning, closer to the better NW gulf return flow but am seeing more widespread fog potential Thursday. Density/coverage remains in question, but will fine tune as we get closer. Additionally, seeing signs of a weak mid-level impulse on Wednesday bringing clouds and perhaps a few showers (starting out as virga) during the day. PoP`s bumped up from yesterday`s package from 10-15% to 20-25% which makes sense that a few areas could see light rain or drizzle, but impacts in regards to coverage/intensity remains very low. KLG && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Thursday will be our next focus at a pretty quick-moving shortwave impulse riding east across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/Midwest. Seeing some longer-range consistency alignments finally on the likelihood of a front swinging through the area. The only question that remains is the availability of return flow/moisture ahead of the front as a secondary cut-off low meanders over the Mexican Plateau into the western Gulf. Any downstream divergence aiding in isentropic ascent will support an influx of moisture ahead of the front to provide some greater shower/few storm coverage. For now, it`s not looking very much like a washout but will need to keep an eye on this impulse. Some indications are that the trough will dive SE enough to pick this impulse up and ride it northeast, but that could support best/maximized lift more towards the east into AL/FL region where coverage could be greater, keeping only frontogenetic lift for our region in a lower coverage potential. Regardless, something to watch for now. We won`t see a polar/arctic connection behind this front as we transition to quasi-zonal late-week into the weekend, meaning yes it`ll be colder but not seeing any freezing temperature potential, moreso, steady ridging builds with time bringing temperatures back to feeling warm this weekend well into the 70`s and staying dry as ridging dominates the region. KLG && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals this evening and this is likely to hold through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Winds will continue to lower/subside today into tonight as high pressure settles into the region. Winds return to onshore from the SE on Tuesday but remains light. Next frontal passage arrives Thursday with shower and a few storms possible. Winds shift to offshore from the north Friday into Saturday potentially reaching Exercise Caution headlines in this time range.KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 27 58 42 65 / 0 0 0 20 BTR 27 60 46 68 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 25 60 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 37 63 51 67 / 0 0 0 20 GPT 28 60 44 65 / 0 0 0 20 PQL 25 60 41 67 / 0 0 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KLG LONG TERM....KLG AVIATION...HL MARINE...KLG