892
FXUS63 KLMK 072105
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
405 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain/snow this evening and overnight will change over to
  light snow after midnight. Light accumulations of a coating to up
  to a half inch in spots is possible. Could create potential slick
  spots and hazards during the early morning commute.

* A series of system move across the Great Lakes Tuesday through
  Thursday that will feature a brief mid week warmup and chances of
  precipitation Wednesday and Thursday

* Coldest air of the season arrives Friday into the weekend with
  highs only in the 20s and lows in the teens and single digits over
  the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Cold front will work across the area tonight into tomorrow bringing
with it some light precipitation ranging from a mix or rain/snow to
even a period of light snow, mainly along the I-64 corridor into the
Bluegrass with mainly light rain showers along and south of the
WK/BG parkways towards the KY/TN border. Sfc boundary currently
stretches from Columbus, OH to Bloomington, IN to just south of St.
Louis, MO. There has been very limited moisture out ahead of this
front. Light precipitation will start to develop as we go overnight
with a possible mix of rain/snow to all snow along the I-64 corridor
and north of the the parkways overnight. A coating to possibly a
half inch of snow could accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces.
Most of the activity is expected after midnight into the pre-dawn
hours. While impacts are not high, with the fact that we could see
light accumulation before and even into the morning commute around
the Lexington area, will continue the special weather statement
across most of the Bluegrass. The main struggle with some of the
precipitation, especially snow, is that model sounding don`t show
much saturation in the DGZ. This could produce some pockets of
drizzle or flurries. Temperatures will fall behing the front going
from the upper 30s to low 40s around sunset to the mid/upper 20s and
low 30s across the south.

We will be mostly dry and colder to start the week with some
lingering cloud cover behind the front during the day. Clouds will
clear from the north to the south with a northerly flow advecting in
the colder air. Highs will be about ten degrees colder with highs in
the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Main focus in the long-term will be a series of two system during
the middle of the week, a brief warm up ahead of the first system
Tuesday and Wednesday with the coldest air of the season arriving
for the end of the week and into the weekend.

High pressure will be over the northeastern CONUS Tuesday allowing
for warm air to advect as winds become more southerly. The first in
a series of systems will be passing by to the north on Tuesday,
tightening up the sfc pressure gradient and increasing winds over
the area. Could see wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph and highs back into
the mid/upper 50s. A second strong sfc low coming out of Canada will
move a bit further south than the system on Tuesday. This will
tighten the sfc pressure gradient even more and advect in more
warm/moist air from the south. Temperatures will warm into the upper
40s/low 50s during the day Wednesday with gusty winds between 20 to
30 mph. Associated sfc cold front will also be working through
during the day Wednesday as precipitation along and ahead of this
boundary falling as mainly rain. The third disturbance on Thursday
will be associated with a shortwave trough that will bring a wintry
mix of rain/snow followed by very cold air. While we could see some
wintry precipitation, current thought is overall impacts from these
three disturbances will be limited.

Upper ridging will amplify over the western US as a deepening trough
sets in over the eastern US. Strong Canadian high pressure builds in
behind the departing system the coldest air of the season is
expected to arrive. Highs are expected to be in the low/mid 30s on
Friday with highs only in the 20s over the weekend and low overnight
temperatures in the teens and single digits Saturday and Sunday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

There was a brief break in the clouds that provided VFR flight
categories and SDF, LEX and RGA will continue for a brief period
before flight categories drop to MVFR then IFR as the next system
moves through later tonight. For SDF to LEX there could be some
light rain/snow or snow showers after 6z then ending before 12z. Low
IFR CIGS with winds out of the north will continue through at least
the first half of the day tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN