Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
637 FXUS64 KLUB 212330 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 530 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Quiet weather continues through Saturday with some fog possible late tonight into Saturday morning. - Widespread rain showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the entire region on Sunday. - Dry conditions return Monday and continue through the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Water vapor imagery late this morning highlights fast southwest flow aloft in place over the region in the wake of yesterday`s storm system. Ahead of our next system which is currently off the SoCal coast, modest mid/upper shortwave ridging is progged to build over our area through the rest of today resulting in quiet and dry weather tonight through Saturday. At the surface, northwest winds will gradually weaken this evening and become light overnight as cool surface ridging settles overhead, setting the stage for some fog early Saturday morning given the still relatively moist low level airmass. Saturday is set to be a pleasant and mild fall day with ridging still in place, with light winds continuing and afternoon highs mainly in the mid 60s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Saturday night, the above-mentioned storm system will track eastward over the Baja peninsula, with models still in good agreement placing a closed upper low over Arizona by sunrise on Sunday. Ahead of the upper level system, low level moisture is progged to increase gradually given a strengthening southerly surface flow component, and column moisture should be fairly rich by late November standards27 with PWATs running about two standard deviations above normal. Together with the strong synoptic scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low, this is expected to result in numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms across the entire region beginning by mid to late Sunday morning and persisting through much of the rest of the day. The strong dynamics aloft associated with a series of H5 to H3 jet streaks overhead will likely support some stronger convective cores, and a strong or marginally severe storm or two will be possible by Sunday afternoon especially east of the I-27 corridor. Some locally heavy rain is also not out of the question, but the flash flood threat should be limited by the quick-moving nature of the convection. Overall, rainfall amounts are expected to be relatively light (up to 0.25" to 0.50" possible across most of the region), through a few isolated totals near an inch are possible mainly across the Rolling Plains. Precipitation will come to an end fairly quickly Sunday evening as drier air moves into the region behind a modified Pacific cold front, with dry conditions expected by Monday morning. Monday is expected to be a fairly breezy day in the wake of the departing system, but mild with above normal highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. A cold front is then expected to pass southward through the region by Tuesday afternoon as a separate shortwave disturbance punches southeastward over the Dakotas. This will be a dry frontal passage, with the most notable impact being a brief period of below normal temperatures on Wednesday. Thursday and beyond, models are in relatively good agreement depicting a return of warmer than normal temperatures with dry weather likely to continue through the rest of the week.| && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 VFR through much of the night with some fog still possible at LBB and PVW, albeit a bit later and more toward daybreak. Newest model guidance is slower with the onset of this fog which may keep visbys more in the MVFR realm until dissipating by 16Z. There is still a chance that vis falls below airport minimums. Otherwise, light N winds tonight turn WSW through Saturday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...93