587
FXUS64 KLUB 062329
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
629 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

 - Slight chance for non-severe showers and thunderstorms Monday
   evening, persisting through Tuesday and Wednesday.

 - A cold front, currently parked across the far southwestern
   Texas Panhandle, will surge southward tonight bringing cooler
   temperatures to the region for Tuesday.

 - Much warmer and drier Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Isolated showers do not want to give up early this afternoon with
current KLBB radar imagery depicted isolated showers translating
east across the Caprock. These showers are expected to diminish
through the early afternoon, but have made some modifications from
the NBM silent PoPs through the 18Z period, to show 15% isolated
showers along the I-27 corridor. Additionally, satellite imagery
shows the cold front extending from a line from Muleshoe to
Silverton to Lelia Lake. Due to the lack of stronger wind speeds
behind the front, the current expectation is for the front to remain
near stationary progressing very little southward over the next 6
hours or so. Therefore, a large gradient in temperatures is expected
this afternoon with highs behind the front ranging in the 70s while
highs out ahead of the front climb into the 80s to lower 90s. There
is the potential for highs to be cooler than the reflected
forecast highs as we see cloud cover linger, especially for areas
across the Caprock. If these clouds decide to stick around longer
than anticipated we could see highs closer to the NAM, ranging
from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the aforementioned area.

The front looks to become reinforced by the late evening as the
surface highs shifts southward, making its way into the LBB area
around midnight and through southern portions of the FA through
the overnight period. As post frontal winds shift out of the
northeast the cooler airmass to the north will begin to settle
into the region. Winds will then begin to slowly veer, becoming
easterly by late morning, which combined with increased moisture
at the surface to mid-levels will allow for low-level stratus to
develop and potentially stick around through at least the early
afternoon before we begin to see a break in the clouds and
ultimately taper off. NBM seems to not have the best handle on
this scenario, so made a few hand adjustments to the sky grids.
Due to this, we went ahead and also trended cooler with Tuesday
highs as well, as 84 degrees in Lubbock seemed far too high.
Blended in CONSMOS and NBM forecast percentile for the best
depiction of cooler highs in the mid to upper 60s across the far
southwestern Panhandle and low to mid 80s across the southeastern
Rolling Plains.

As for precipitation chances across the area, not much of a change
was made from the previous forecast in the short term package. After
lingering showers this morning, an additional and better chance for
precipitation returns for portions of the FA by this evening as an
upper level disturbance moves closer to the region. Unfortunately,
the best chance for beneficial rainfall looks to remain focused to
our west and north, which will keep best chances across our FA
fixated across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Expect these
showers and occasional thunderstorms to track northeast through the
area through the overnight period through much of Tuesday. Lack of
instability across the area will lead to the severe storm potential
remaining quite low with the biggest threat being occasional brief
heavy downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

After one more cool and semi-cloudy day on Wednesday with some
morning showers to boot near the NM border, things take a turn for
the worse thereafter as a H5 high blossoms over the Big Bend and
amplifies through the end of the week to around 5920 meters which is
almost 100 meters above normal for early October. The H7 high will
unfortunately be centered in or very near our backyard from Thursday
through Saturday allowing for toasty highs running 10-15 degrees
above normal. Even though the mid-level ridge departs to our east by
Sunday ahead of increasingly deeper and stronger WSW flow, the NBM
favors the hottest temps this day courtesy of breezier downslope
flow which could offset the modest cooling aloft. In some ways, this
looks like a near repeat of this past weekend when breezy SW winds
unfolded behind the upper ridge and kept high temps well above
normal. Wildfire activity has been ticking up lately and this
prolonged dry and unusually warm pattern would only boost this threat
by the weekend provided breezy winds develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. There is a slight chance
for lower CIGs after 12Z Tuesday morning, but the chance is too
low for a TAF mention. If low CIGs do appear, they will likely be
MVFR to low end VFR.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...51