034
FXUS64 KLUB 011736
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1136 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Very cold tonight, with highs on Tuesday expected to warm back
   near normal for this time of year.

 - Chilly through mid-week as a cold front moves through Wednesday,
   before warming back up near seasonal averages this weekend.

 - Precipitation chances, in the form of rain/snow showers, return
   Thursday morning, mainly across the far southwestern Texas
   Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over most of the CONUS in the near
term with an embedded shortwave trough axis stretching from the
Upper Midwest to the TX Panhandle set to slide quickly eastward
through the rest of the day. This evolution will push a weakening
cold front through the region and bring a brief period of stronger
north winds this afternoon and evening. Tonight is expected to be
very cold across the forecast area as skies finally clear and winds
generally become light, with lows on the Caprock falling into the
middle teens with low 20s expected elsewhere. It is also not out of
the question that our typical cold spots near the TX/NM state line
briefly fall into the single digits before an increasing westerly
component to the surface flow brings temperatures back up just after
sunrise. By late Tuesday morning, lee surface troughing is expected
to rapidly deepen over NE NM which will result in a relatively
breezy afternoon across most of the forecast area. Despite the very
cold start to the day, the fairly strong downslope component to the
flow through much of the lower atmosphere will allow afternoon
temperatures to warm back near seasonal averages with highs mainly
in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

By the start of the extended forecast an H5 shortwave trough over
the Intermountain West will begin to translate southward, digging
into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. In turn, flow
aloft will slowly begin to veer out of the southwest while at the
surface, flow will begin to shift out of the north as a FROPA surges
southward from the north in response to the surface low shifting
east into the Southern Plains. Models are in decent agreement with
this front arriving into our most northern row of counties by
daybreak. Given the stronger nature of the front, with wind speeds
around 20 to 30 MPH right behind the front, common to most FROPAs
this time of year, there is a good chance this front blasts through
even earlier than what models are projecting. Therefore, made a
few minor adjustments to the winds speeds, increasing them to a
50/50 blend of NBM and NBM 75th, as well as a decrease in highs on
Wednesday using NBM 25th for widespread temperatures in the 50s.

Models continue to back off with precipitation chances Thursday, with
guidance suggesting the shortwave trough deamplifying into an open
wave feature being absorbed into the main flow as it enters the
Panhandle region. Ensembles on the other hand still hint at the
potential for at least a few showers across the far southwestern
Texas Panhandle. Although the upper level lift looks to be present,
with the H5 70+ knot jet moving directly overhead, the lack thereof
moisture will be the main factor missing for widespread
precipitation. Most moisture looks to enter the region with the
system, and remaining fixated across our most northwestern counties.
Therefore, we expect the highest chance for precipitation across the
aforementioned area. As for precipitation type, we will be well
below freezing across much of the area Thursday morning with
temperatures in the 20s and low 30s, warming into the mid 40s by the
afternoon. Forecast soundings across the area depict a poorly
saturated DGZ layer with a very present warm nose layer. This
suggest that precipitation type will likely be in the form of some
kind of wintry mix and/or cold rain. However, snowfall and a light
dusting cannot be completely ruled out at this time, especially
across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.

As this system quickly ejects out of the region Thursday night,
quieter weather is expected thereafter with temperatures warming
back into the 60s as surface winds veer out of the south-southwest
in response to a lee cyclone. Expect these conditions to continue
through Sunday,where ensembles hint at another chance for arctic air
in our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Lingering low clouds will clear over the next hour or so, with VFR
then set to prevail through the rest of this TAF period. A brief
period of stronger north breezes is expected this afternoon behind a
cold front, but otherwise winds will remain relatively light.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30