409
FXUS64 KLUB 180542
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1142 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - Unseasonably warm again Tuesday with highs above normal for
   November standards.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the Rolling Plains
   Wednesday increasing in coverage Thursday.

 - A threat for locally heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe
   storms possible Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Unseasonably warm, dry, and quiet weather is on tap for Tuesday with
a similar forecast to Monday`s expected once again. Main difference,
will be that winds are not expected to become nearly as breezy as
they did today as the surface pressure gradient becomes relaxed with
the departure of the surface low to the east. Although not as
strong, winds will remain out of the southwest, influencing warmer
temperatures in combination with subsidence aloft from the weak
shortwave ridge. Expect highs to climb back into the 70s to lower
80s this afternoon as clear skies prevail. Overnight, expect the
quiet trend to continue with lows in the 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Potential for cooler and wetter conditions remains the theme of the
extended forecast. As an upper level trough, currently parked off
the California coastline, translates through the Desert Southwest
and into the Texas Panhandle region towards the end of the week. By
the start of the long term the H5 shortwave trough and attendant
closed low will dive southeastward into Baja California. While the
southern base of the trough becomes increasingly elongated southward
into northern portions of Mexico. As a result, already established
west to southwest flow aloft will turn more southerly, still
remaining out of the southwest. Near the surface, southwest winds
will also begin to back out of the south, with flow looking to vary
out of the south and southeast overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.
This will begin to allow the return of gulf moisture into portions
of the FA by the late afternoon Wednesday. Unfortunately, taking a
quick peak at WV imagery channels, there looks to be a lack of
moisture present across much of the region with the main bulk of
moisture fixated to areas south and east of the LUB CWA. That being
said, models continue to hint at moisture return at the surface and
mid-levels for at least portions of the southeastern Rolling Plains,
enough to which we could see scattered showers. Main forcing for
ascent for Wednesday precipitation looks to come from a modest H5
jet streak rounding the southern periphery of the parent trough,
encompassing portions of the FA. Although isentropic ascent looks to
be present, mainly across the southeastern Rolling Plains at the
305K and 310K layers, lack thereof moisture across the
aforementioned area will likely limit anything more widespread.

The upper level trough will become negatively tilted, as it begins
to wobble northeast into the northern TX Panhandle late Wednesday
into Thursday morning as a secondary low over the PacNW becomes
absorbed. As this happens, moisture associated with this system will
finally make its way into the region, as the trough and associated
H5 60+kt jet streak moves directly overhead. This synoptic pattern
combined with increased moisture looks to favor expansive coverage
in PoPs by Thursday, however this will be dependent on how much
moisture we see return to the region, as previously guidance looks
to be a bit overdone with the highest confidence for precipitation
looking to be east of I-27 and south of US-82. Periods of heavy
rainfall will be possible early Thursday into Thursday afternoon,
with forecast soundings depicting long skinny CAPE profiles and
PWATs above seasonal normals. Gearing towards Thursday afternoon,
there remains the potential for a few stronger caliber thunderstorms
to develop, as a dryline tracks eastward through the FA. Low-level
convergence along this boundary combined with CAPE values up to 1500
J/kg and bulk shear magnitudes up to 40 knots suggest some storms,
if they develop, could produce sub-severe hail or a stronger wind
gust. By Thursday evening coverage in PoPs will begin to decrease as
the system moves out of the region and we begin to loose supportive
dynamics for precipitation, becoming dry by the end of the work
week. The drier forecast will only be short lived, with ensembles
hinting at our next chance of rain towards the end of the weekend as
the secondary low translates through southern portions of the
western CONUS. Overall, models diverge quite a bit on the evolution
of this system at this point in time. However, will maintain NBM
mentionable PoPs until we see better alignment in models to prompt
any necessary changes, if needed. Despite winds remaining southerly,
on and off precipitation, cloud cover, in addition to decreased
thickness and height values will influence temperatures several
degrees cooler from what we saw at the start of the week. Although,
we still are expected to remain a few degrees above normal for
November standards, with forecasted highs in the 60s to around 70
degrees Thursday through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with wind speeds
remaining at or below 12 kts mainly from the west until Tuesday
afternoon when they become light and variable.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...07