684
FXUS64 KLUB 181806
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to increase
   Wednesday, primarily in the Rolling Plains.

 - Marginally-severe hail will be possible in the eastern Rolling
   Plains Wednesday.

 - Locally heavy rain and some strong to severe storms are possible
   Thursday.

 - Cool finish to the week with additional rain chances this
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, a shortwave trough was digging into Baja
California, with a pair of jetlets approaching 100 kt and 50 kt at
300 mb and 500 mb, respectively, that were rounding its base and
emerging over the Desert Southwest. A closed low was embedded within
this trough, with the vortex ascending through 200 mb on recent
water-vapor imagery, resulting in a broad field of moist, isentropic
ascent over the Mojave Desert and eastward into the Chihuahuan
Desert. Baroclinic leaf structures were evident nearest the closed
low, signifying the intense ascent and divergence within the sharply
difluent flow emerging over the Desert Southwest. Farther east, a
shortwave ridge was centered over the High Plains, with 12Z RAOBs
observing slightly positive geopotential height rises. The ridge
will continue to deamplify as the troughing to the west of the CWA
becomes neutrally-tilted by Wednesday morning. Until then, thick,
banded cirrus, which is a key indicator in the vigor of ascent over
the Rocky Mountains via the genesis of mountain waves, will continue
to advect northeastward over W TX while thickening into an overcast
near sunset as the leading shortwave trough shifts eastward.

At the surface, a weak cold front has since moved through the CWA,
and is located along a line from CNM-GNC-SNK-SPS, with a secondary
front to the north of the CWA along a line from TCC-HRX-HBR where
better CAA exists. A subtle surface low was also rotating in the TX
Big Country, where a dryline extends southwestward between ABI and
SWW. Dewpoints spike into the middle 60s within the moist sector,
with the western edge of the 65 degree isodrosotherm near SJT and is
drawn northeastward into central N TX. A wide range of temperatures
is present across the CWA, and this gradient will remain intact
throughout the rest of today, with highs peaking in the lower 70s in
the far southwestern TX PH to the middle 80s in the southeastern
Rolling Plains where differential mixing is more-prominent near the
northwestern edge of the theta-e ridge. Winds have otherwise veered
westward across the South Plains where theta-e advection has been
recycled following the weak FROPA. The position of these synoptic
and mesoscale boundaries will be of key interest by Wednesday. Winds
will become light and variable after sunset, with mild temperatures
expected by Wednesday morning as rapid moisture return occurs for
areas east of the Caprock Escarpment.

PoPs are set to steadily increase during the predawn hours Wednesday
as the 700 mb trough arrives, with elevated, WAA-induced rain
showers forecast to become widely-scattered after sunrise across
portions of the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains. Thick
overcast from the intense, moist ascent in the mid/upper-levels will
mute the full of effects of diabatic heating. However, rapid
moisture return will be underway across the eastern zones as the
aforementioned cold front to the north of the CWA, which will have
become quasi-stationary, undergoes warm-frontogenesis and lifts
poleward past the I-40 corridor. Dewpoints were raised based on the
current observations to the south of the CWA, and aligned with
CONSShort, which captures the western edge of the dryline as it
sloshes northwestward throughout the day Wednesday ahead of the
negatively-tilting trough.

As the leading shortwave trough in the mid-levels begins to eject
northeastward towards the CWA Wednesday afternoon, WAA-induced
showers and storms are forecast to attain surface-based parcel
trajectories as peak heating occurs, although cells will still be
high-based. However, coverage should be scattered at best due to the
intensity of the cloud-layer flow relative to the size of the
updrafts, which will be narrow due to weak storm-relative winds in
the low-levels, in addition to lingering subsidence. NBM PoPs were
capped at 40-percent to account for this thinking. Updrafts are
expected to reach heights high enough to generate lightning over the
east and southeastern Rolling Plains, which is where the western
edge of the theta-e/moist tongue will be positioned. A localized
risk for marginally-severe hail will exist with any storms that are
able to organize as the mid-levels begin to cool upon the approach
of the negatively-tilting trough. Showers will become more-scant in
coverage closer to the edge of the Caprock Escarpment, with
increasing storm chances to follow heading into Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A pattern shift to cooler and unsettled weather is in the offing
beginning late Wednesday night and continuing through Monday.
This is thanks to a pair of southern stream lows that intercept
rich gulf moisture. The first of these lows is currently over the
Channel Islands and is progged to open up over the Desert
Southwest before turning negatively tilted on Thursday afternoon
over eastern New Mexico into the Big Bend. An abundance of low-
level moisture is already over the Hill Country where dewpoints
are pushing 70 degrees. This moisture will advect NNW as a warm
front on Wednesday night and result in widespread stratus followed
by expanding chances for showers and storms overnight. Much of
this lift overnight is focused in the lower levels along the nose
of a healthy LLJ that serves to bolster isentropic lift. After
this late-night and early-morning round of mostly elevated showers
and some storms, the upper levels turn more interesting as winds
aloft become increasingly difluent downstream of the negatively-
tilted trough with robust height falls up to 80 meters in 12
hours. Even if low clouds fail to clear out ahead of this next
round of lift, the magnitude of ascent including a dryline with a
weak surface low on the Caprock and a Pacific front appear more
than sufficient to support another, perhaps bigger, round of deep
convection in the afternoon initially on the Caprock. Prospects
for a few severe storms will continue to be included in the HWO
before the front sweeps this activity east Thursday evening.
Although storm motions will be on the swift side, locally heavy
rain remains in the cards for Thursday given PWAT anomalies of
1/2" to 1" from W-E over the forecast area.

Drier and cooler weather rolls in Thursday night on the heels of the
upper trough. A weak northern cold front may dip south on Friday
before return flow ensues in earnest on Saturday and Saturday night
ahead of a slow-moving upper low approaching from the Desert
Southwest. Guidance is in good agreement overall regarding a bout of
isentropically-forced rain Saturday night into Sunday, but remain at
odds when this low ejects across West Texas and more importantly
will it be to our north or much closer to home. Other than smoothing
NBM`s PoPs from Saturday night through Monday, no changes are
warranted this many days out. Regardless, high temps for Sunday
have the potential to go much lower (perhaps upper 40s and 50s)
under a stratus shield with rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions generally expected over the next 24 hours. Model
guidance hints at possible IFR ceilings at KCDS after midnight,
though confidence is low at this time.

Garber

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...26