Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
421 FXUS64 KLUB 240530 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Areas of fog overnight will clear out before sunrise Monday. - Dry overall this week with mostly seasonal temperatures until a strong cold front threatens this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 A stacked cyclone was found curling across the Palmer Divide at 10 PM and is set to drift east across Kansas through Monday while minoring out. Mid-level dry slotting had already enveloped all of our area behind the final vestiges of storms crossing the 100th meridian. The low levels remained very moist as gulf moisture on light upslope winds was fueling a round of stratus and fog. Until a Pacific cold front shoves across the Caprock after midnight, fog may grow dense and widespread enough for a Dense Fog Advisory. Barring a sliver of fog and stratus near the Highway 83 corridor by daybreak, clear skies will be the rule on Monday with some steady WNW breezes around 15 mph by late morning. Highs will be 5-10 degrees milder than Sunday for most areas ahead of chillier lows in the 30s overnight under clear skies and light west winds. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 The extended forecast remains a quiet and tame one at least until the weekend when a major pattern change affects a good chunk of the CONUS. Until then, we`ll be contending with cyclonic NW flow aloft for Tuesday and Wednesday that delivers a dry cold front for Tuesday afternoon ahead of chilly highs in the 50s for Wednesday. Milder SSW breezes resume in time for Thanksgiving as the upper flow begins backing W and eventually SW into the weekend as a longwave trough carves itself out over the western CONUS. Models are in good agreement with this larger pattern change and more importantly a shift in the Polar Vortex to the Hudson Bay. This will dislodge a large dome of frigid air into much of the Great Plains by the weekend with our area potentially seeing a strong cold front by late Saturday or Sunday. The 00Z GFS drastically changed its mind and now fails to bring this front to our doorstep at any point which is in contrast to the overall signal of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. No need to make any drastic changes to the NBM this many days out as it is trending colder by Sunday. Ahead of the weekend cold front there is a window for low PoPs off the Caprock near a ribbon of gulf moisture streaming north. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Widespread stratus ranging from MVFR to IFR with some fog will be the rule overnight until a front moves east in the pre-dawn hours ahead of clearing skies and light W winds for the remainder of Monday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93