Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
337 FXUS64 KLUB 060515 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1215 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Thunderstorms are expected mainly northwest of a line from Denver City to Silverton on Monday afternoon and evening. - A cold front, while initially stalling Monday morning across our northern counties, is expected to surge southward Monday night bring cooler weather on Tuesday. Some shower activity may persist Tuesday and Wednesday. - Drier and warmer late this week. && .SYNOPSIS... The next week holds indications of a number of systems moving across the CONUS though the high pressure center across the south will continue to be a primary influence on the weather in Texas. Early this Monday morning, broad southwesterly mid-level flow. We have in place a subtropical jet streak moving across the southern Rockies. The H25 flow will become increasingly zonal through mid-week north of the subtropical high which remains the dominant feature south of about 30N save a tropical system SW of MMSL. NW flow aloft builds into the region on Thursday as increased anticyclonic flow ahead of a strong system off the Pacific NW coast. The Pacific system will open and move into the northern Rockies whilst another low drops into southern BC leaving a rather potent jet streak from the Great Basin into the the central Rockies and northern Plains by next weekend. .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Showers had developed earlier this evening in our northwestern counties where a theta-e ridge had been present. In particular, the question being asked is just how long these will persist through the overnight hours. Activity is not expected to be heavy, with a few areas receiving a few hundredths of an inch, but some sprinkles could be observed perhaps as far east as the I-27 corridor. Storm chances increase for Monday afternoon especially in the northwest and west once again near a sagging cold front which may not make much southward progress during the day. Precip totals could yielding rainfall accumulations of...wait for it...perhaps a few tenths of an inch in the NW with the rest of the area remaining dry. The front should stall or potentially retreat northward during the day Monday. However, perhaps reinforced by outflows / passing trough to our north, we should see the boundary move through the entire CWFA by Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Iso to Sct rain chances, particularly out west, continue to be a possibility on Tuesday and Wednesday and this helps to explain some of the variation in high temps Tuesday afternoon. The culprit is largely the variation of clouds this day though I suspect the NAM guidance, keeping temps in the mid 60s, is a bit on the cool side whilst the NBM which advertises a range from 70 to 90 NW to SE is probably overall too warm as well. Perhaps after things settle out, we`ll end up with a pleasant day in the 70s areawide. If there is one thing that is consistent during the week, it`s the presence of H7 moisture which will yield scattered to broken clouds most days. After Wednesday, things tend to dry out with temps running near to increasing above climo with time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. South to southeast winds on Monday will not be as breezy as this weekend. A cold front moving southward through the Texas Panhandle will stall later this morning, likely to the north of the terminals before beginning to move southward and past the terminals Monday evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...07