255
FXUS61 KLWX 011908
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
308 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds overhead through Monday as a low pressure
system tracks to the south. A cold front moves through the forecast
area Monday night before another cold front moves through later in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry conditions persist today as surface high pressure builds
overhead. Shortwave energy traversing aloft will yield increased
cloud cover as high level clouds move in throughout the day. High
temperatures will rise into the 50s to mid 60s across the forecast
area with highest elevations along the Alleghenies staying in the
40s.

Tonight, dry conditions continue with mostly cloudy skies overhead.
Cloud cover will primarily be high level clouds, with conditions
being favorable for radiational cooling. Patchy frost is possible in
areas where the growing season has ended, with NE Maryland having
the greatest chances. Frost developing and temperatures will be
highly dependent on how quickly high level clouds move in and their
impact on radiational cooling. Generally, temperatures fall into the
30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions continue on Sunday as surface high pressure remains
in place. Winds remain light out of the southeast, blowing 5 to 20
knots in the afternoon. A low pressure system developing over the SE
CONUS will yield increased cloud cover for the southernmost portions
of the forecast area. Otherwise, mostly sunny to sunny skies are
expected.

As the aforementioned low pressure system tracks NE along the
Carolina coast, precipitation chances return for the I-95 corridor
and central VA on Monday. Dry conditions and reduced cloud cover can
be expected elsewhere. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s
both Sunday and Monday with overnight lows dropping into the 30s and
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A progressive northern stream dominant pattern unfolds for the
extended forecast period. This will carry a series of cold
fronts across the area, most of which will provide a dry frontal
passage. Ultimately this will favor a fairly typical autumnal
pattern with gusty winds in the wake of each boundary. Depending
on how quickly fuels dry in this regime, this could pose a risk
of some elevated fire weather concerns.

Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected during this period,
while spiking a bit behind each front aided by downsloping
effects. This would support Wednesday and next Saturday of being
the mildest days as highs rise well into the 60s. A couple of
robust areas of high pressure settling over the eastern U.S.
will enhance the potential for frost/freeze concerns where the
growing season continues. Right now this would include the I-95
corridor and points eastward with low temperatures falling into
the 30s on Tuesday and Thursday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through Sunday as high pressure remains
over the mid-atlantic. Winds continue to diminish this
afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. Winds
shift to the southeast tomorrow and will be lighter compared to
today, blowing 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Winds become
light and variable again overnight into Monday. On Monday, low
pressure to the south will yield increased cloud cover and the
return of precipitation chances for CHO, IAD, DCA, BWI, and MTN.
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected to continue, although
some precipitation may bring brief restrictions.

A dry weather pattern ahead will support VFR conditions on
Tuesday through Thursday. A strong area of high pressure pushes
through on Tuesday while another cold front sweeps through the
region on Wednesday. This favors another round of gusty winds
mid-week with post-frontal westerlies up to around 20 to 25
knots. Elevated wind fields may persist into Thursday as
gradients allow.


&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory for the northern portions of the Chesapeake
Bay has been extended until 4PM to accommodate gusts up to 20 knots.
Winds diminish this evening with no advisories expected overnight or
Sunday. Winds shift to southeasterly tomorrow before becoming light
and variable overnight into Monday. On Monday, winds shift to
westerly and approach SCA criteria overnight. Small Craft Advisories
may be needed.

Behind a cold front, residual advisory caliber northwesterlies
are expected through Tuesday morning, possibly a bit longer.
High pressure builds to the south while another cold front
approaches from the Great Lakes by Wednesday. Increasing
southerly winds may yield some channeling effects which would
support gusts to around 20 knots or so. Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed mid-week.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ530>532-538>540.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...AVS/BRO
MARINE...AVS/BRO