Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
789 FXUS64 KLZK 190002 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 702 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 -Hazardous heat and humidity will persist through the remainder of the work week, with daily heat headlines likely. -More widespread rain chances appear possible across the state through the weekend, though any cooldown will be brief. -Above-normal temperatures and hazardous heat will persist into next week, with triple digit heat becoming more likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Recent radar mosaic and IR sat imgry depicted vigorous and deep convection ongoing acrs NWrn AR, where b/w 4 to 6 inches of rainfall has fallen rapidly. Radar imgry suggested the potential development of an MCV, which wl lkly move Ewrd acrs the AR/MO border region thru today. Chc PoPs remain in place acrs Nrn AR thru the overnight timeframe, w/ additional isolated showers/storms possible Fri aftn, primarily diurnally-driven. Sctd showers/storms wl also be possible acrs Srn to SErn AR invof a weakening tropical system moving inland fm the Gulf. Heat and humidity wl be the primary concern thru much of the fcst PD though, w/ another aftn of sultry condns expected, including much of the state under a Heat Advisory, and portions of Cntrl to Ern and NErn AR in an Extreme Heat Warning. Aftn PoPs and asctd cloud cover may help to provide some relief fm sweltering heat index values acrs Srn and SErn AR. Thru the weekend, sctd PoPs wl remain possible acrs the Ern half of the state as the remnants of the aforementioned tropical system traverse around the periphery of an H500 high pressure system, centered over the SErn US. The fcst remains bleak thru the remainder of the PD, as H500 ridging retrogrades Wwrd and amplifies over the Cntrl US thru the first half of next week. Confidence on more widespread triple digit heat cont to incrs as well, w/ SWrly sfc winds promoting aftn dewpoint values mixing to the upper 60s acrs portions of the FA. In fact, portions of Cntrl AR could be looking at a few consecutive days of 100 degree heat, fm Tues thru Thurs. Heat headlines are lkly to remain a daily occurrence thru the next week ahead, w/ hazardous heat expected to persist thru at least the end of the month. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Scattered SHRA/TSRA were ongoing across Wrn and Srn terminals as of 00z and this should persist through 03-04z this evening before diminishing. Outside of convection, VFR conds were prevailing, however VIS`bys will be reduced in and near TSRA, possibly down to MVFR/IFR. Conds should improve overnight, with SW winds around 10-15 kts on Sat. Lower PoP chances are in place on Sat thus only mentioned PROB30 at KLLQ for SHRA/TSRA over far Srn AR. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Widespread VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. With that said, SHRA and TSRA are possible this afternoon and evening across mainly northern and central terminals. VCTS/VCSH has been included in TAFs for areas of with best chances. MVFR/IFR conditions could become possible where storms persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 76 96 77 96 / 30 10 0 0 Camden AR 74 93 75 97 / 30 20 0 0 Harrison AR 73 94 73 93 / 20 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 75 96 75 96 / 20 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 77 96 77 96 / 20 10 0 0 Monticello AR 76 92 77 96 / 30 30 0 10 Mount Ida AR 74 95 75 95 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 74 95 74 95 / 30 10 0 0 Newport AR 77 96 77 96 / 20 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 76 94 76 95 / 20 20 0 10 Russellville AR 76 98 76 97 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 76 96 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 77 94 77 95 / 10 20 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ006-014-015-024- 052-053-062>069-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-221>223-230-237-238- 240-241-340-341. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ006-014>016- 024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-121>123-130-138-221>223-230- 238. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008- 016-017-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ007- 008-017. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...70