794
FXUS64 KLZK 182305 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
505 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

-Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances across the
 northern portions of Arkansas early this morning

-Well above normal temperatures today and tomorrow, with some
 areas nearing record high temperature territory

-Mainly beneficial rains anticipated across the Natural State late
 this week, with the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity
 Thursday and Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Some isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed
across mainly southern Missouri early this morning, with some
potential that a few storms could develop across northern Arkansas
over the next several hours. CAM`s show some spotty showers and
storms possible along the cold front extending from the surface
low pressure currently centered over eastern NE mainly late today
and into this evening across mainly northern and eastern Arkansas
as the front exits east of the state tonight. Otherwise, very warm
temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal will challenge daily
record highs for some locations today and extending into tomorrow.

The anticipated weather disturbance set to impact the region later
this week continues to slow as the associated shortwave trough
aloft continues to delay progression eastward across the Plains
through the middle of the week. As the details become more clear
with timing and amounts, the impacts associated with this event
seemingly continue to decrease as storm total rainfall likewise is
decreasing. The warm front that will usher in enhanced lower level
moisture in from the southwest will spread northward across the
region on Wednesday, but the dynamical support for any shower or
thunderstorm activity will delay more into the early Thursday
timeframe, prior to the main cold frontal passage across the state
late Thursday into Friday.

Taking a glance at the latest rainfall amounts, most likely
(higher end) storm totals Wednesday through Friday remain around
1.00" (1-2"), with higher amounts of 2-3" (3-5") for western
Arkansas. Contrast with this outlook with the previous 24-48
hours, the most likely and higher end storm total amounts have
come down around 2". Thus, as guidance has come into better
agreement for this event, the downtrend in rainfall amounts for
the region suggest a beneficial rainfall event for the Natural
State as soils will be receptive and not cause excessive runoff as
the heaviest rains move through. However, any areas (which would
favor western Arkansas) that receive multiple heavy
thunderstorms/downpours in a short period would pose a low flash
flood threat.

Once the rainfall clears the area going into this weekend, another
amplifying ridge seems favored as another Pacific trough deepens
across the West Coast. There remains modest uncertainty on how
progressive this trough will be moving through the weekend and
early next week, but should the cutoff scenario come to fruition,
expect building high pressure and dry conditions through at least
this weekend. Whenever the Pacific trough ejects eastward, we can
expect another round of rain, but that might not be well into
next week as current projections suggests at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Condns acrs the FA had improved to VFR status near 18/23Z, w/ only
some sctd cloud cover remaining. Expect VFR condns to prevail
overnight, w/ winds bcmg light and variable as a cdfrnt settles
over the Nrn half of the state. Some patchy fog may develop acrs
Nrn terminals, w/ intermittent MVFR VISBYs b/w 10-15Z Wed mrng.
Thru the day Wed, expect variable to winds invof this stalled
frnt, w/ incrsg cloud covg, and most sites remaining VFR, though
low-end VFR CIGs are expected, w/ intermittent MVFR condns acrs
Cntrl and Srn AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     53  74  56  71 /   0   0  40  90
Camden AR         62  81  63  77 /   0   0  20  30
Harrison AR       48  72  56  68 /   0   0  60  90
Hot Springs AR    59  80  62  73 /  10  10  50  70
Little Rock   AR  60  77  62  73 /  10  10  30  70
Monticello AR     65  82  64  79 /   0  10  10  20
Mount Ida AR      57  82  62  74 /  10  10  60  80
Mountain Home AR  48  71  54  67 /   0   0  50  90
Newport AR        56  74  59  72 /  10   0  30  90
Pine Bluff AR     62  81  63  77 /  10  10  20  50
Russellville AR   53  78  60  73 /   0  10  50  90
Searcy AR         56  76  58  73 /  10   0  30  80
Stuttgart AR      61  79  62  76 /  20   0  20  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...72