337
FXUS64 KLZK 050429
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1129 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

-Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through at least early
next week, with area high readings generally 5 to 8 degrees above
normal.

-More organized and widespread rain chances appear possible by mid-
week next week as a cold front approaches from the Great Plains.

-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late next
 week in the wake of the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

H500 ridging was noted acrs much of the Cntrl US to Ern US w/
amplified troughing continuing to move acrs the Wrn US. Locally,
Ern US sfc pressure continues to influence the fcst, w/ dry and
warm temps persisting thru at least the end of the weekend.

Not much has changed regarding the fcst, w/ guidance still
indicative of the aforementioned H500 ridge weakening and
shifting Swrd over the Srn Cntrl US early next week, and
generally zonal flow w/ passing embedded shortwave trofs
prevailing acrs the CONUS.

Sfc moisture wl begin increasing over the Srn Cntrl US on Mon,
and wl aid in incrsg rain chances thru the early half of next week
ahead of an aprchg cdfrnt. This cdfrnt should move into the Ozark
Plateau region during the Tues-Wed timeframe, driven by broad
Great Lakes sfc high pressure, and influence more widespread PoPs
over the FA.

In the wake of the cdfrnt, which wl shift towards a "back-door"
style frnt as sfc high pressure settles over the Great Lakes and
NErn US, NErly sfc winds wl prevail, ushering in cooler and drier
air over the Natural State thru the end of the PD, w/ settled wx
condns resuming.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Expect VFR flight category for all terminals for the entire duration
of the forecast period from early Sunday morning through early
Monday morning. Fair weather conditions are to be expected over the
forecast period across all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  58  87  65 /   0   0   0  20
Camden AR         86  60  87  67 /   0   0  10  20
Harrison AR       80  58  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    82  61  86  66 /   0   0  10  20
Little Rock   AR  84  61  86  69 /   0   0  10  20
Monticello AR     86  63  88  69 /   0   0  10  30
Mount Ida AR      86  60  86  65 /   0   0  10  10
Mountain Home AR  82  58  85  64 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        84  59  88  68 /   0   0   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     86  61  87  68 /   0   0  10  20
Russellville AR   84  61  87  66 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         83  58  88  66 /   0   0  10  30
Stuttgart AR      84  61  87  69 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74