723
FXUS64 KLZK 041732
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1132 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

 - Cold air and light winter weather expected across parts of the
   state today, precip expected to end by late evening.

 - Little to no impacts expected from any winter weather that
   occurs.

 - Fairly quiet weather expected for much of the forecast after
   today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Main focus of this forecast package remains the cold air set to
move in and the accompanying threat for winter weather across the
state today. A weakening H500 disturbance will pass through the
Mid to Lower MS Valley while an area of sfc low pressure moves
east along the Gulf coast.

Guidance regarding today`s weather has remained varied in nature,
but the consensus remains that this isn`t expected to be a major,
impactful event for the state. Additionally, the threat of FZRA
has continued to decrease along with the extent of below freezing
air in place at the sfc. Now that we have entered the time range
where hi-res/CAM data extends through the duration of the event
we can incorporate that data into forecast weather elements.

As of 06z, a cold front is beginning to make progress south
across portions of NW Arkansas with temperatures slowly falling in
its wake and sfc winds becoming NE. As this front continues its
progress south across the state this morning, temperatures will
fall but most locations across the state are expected to remain
above freezing. Some early rain is expected to move in across
southern AR where temperatures are in the upper 30s/lower 40s F.

As far as concerns regarding winter weather this morning, that
will largely be focused from northeast Oklahoma eastward across
north-central Arkansas. A band of what is expected to be mostly
snow will expand east, providing an opportunity for some light
accumulation (less than an inch) across the higher terrain of the
Ozarks, from Washington County to Searcy County. With air
temperatures only near freezing, most snowfall accumulation will
be limited to grassy areas and a few elevated roadways. This
threat will persist through the morning hours before dissipating.

Through the rest of the day, as the sfc low continues its eastward
trek along the Gulf coast and moisture lifts north into the state
additional precipitation is expected across the southeast half of
AR. Much of this will remain as cold rain for southern Arkansas
but from this afternoon through the evening hours, some areas from
central to northeast Arkansas could see some wintry mix of sleet
or snow.

With the relatively short duration of frozen precip, marginal
temperatures and the time of day, this is expected to lead to
almost no impacts. Additionally, there isn`t any accumulation
included in this forecast package for these areas. Precip is
expected to quickly come to an end with much of the state being
dry shortly after 05/00z.

Much quieter conditions are expected in the coming days with a
weak front set to drop south across the state on Sunday. This will
provide cooler temperatures for Monday before a slow warming trend
is expected by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Area of precipitation will move west to east through 00z,
affecting the forecast area. Areas north of a line from
Russellville, to Newport will have snow as the precipitation type.
To the south, rain, with brief periods of sleet can be expected.
During the valid TAF period, MVFR ceilings will prevail across
all be extreme northwest sections of the forecast area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     36  25  45  30 /  20  10   0   0
Camden AR         39  29  45  34 /  80  20   0  10
Harrison AR       36  26  49  31 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    38  27  47  32 /  40  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  38  28  45  34 /  40  10   0   0
Monticello AR     39  31  46  35 /  90  40   0  10
Mount Ida AR      40  28  50  31 /  30  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  36  24  48  30 /  20   0   0   0
Newport AR        36  26  42  31 /  20  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     38  28  44  33 /  60  20   0  10
Russellville AR   39  28  48  32 /  20  10   0   0
Searcy AR         37  26  44  30 /  30  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      38  29  43  34 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55