445
FXUS64 KLZK 281721 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1121 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 + Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible Saturday
   through very early Sunday, Winter weather is not expected at
   this time.

+  Colder air returns for early next week as another system
   moves through the region. Some light winter weather can not
   be discounted Monday but overall impacts appear minimal at
   this time.

+ Guidance continue to be inconsistent with the overall possibility
  and placement of winter weather.

+ Temperatures through the entire period will continue to run
  below average even for late November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Not many value added changes will be made to the forecast package
this morning as no significant changes are noted versus this time
last night. Overall progressive pattern will continue with a couple
of storm systems to deal with including the possibility of at the
very least, a taste of some winter weather.

Satellite imagery this morning shows partly cloudy to mainly clear
conditions across the region courtesy of weak surface ridging.
Temperatures are on the chilly side with the majority of observation
platforms in the lower to mid 30s. Increasing clouds cover is
expected later today as the next upper trough drops into western
high plains this evening. Surface reflection, over SE colorado this
evening, will lift to the NE and into the Eastern Great Lakes
come Sunday morning.

Warm nose still evident and with quasi-zonal flow in place, only
liquid precipitation is expected from this feature. It appears that
today will be dry with showers and isolated thunderstorms moving
through tonight into early Sunday morning. Temperatures will be a
touch cooler versus the past few days but nothing unusual for
late November. QPF not overly impressive with upwards on a inch
possible from this system and although isolated thunderstorms are
expected, severe weather is not.

As the surface cyclone lifts to the NE, it will drag a cold front
through the state with another surge of cold air following its
passage. The cold air looks to arrive once the best moisture exits
the region but high temperatures on Sunday are not expected to get
out of the mid 30s across the north to the mid 40s over the south.

Surface high pressure to the north of the state will provide a dry
Sunday but also keep a north to northeast surface flow in place as
it slides to the east. Meanwhile, a much sharper trough will be
digging into the central Rockies turning the upper flow around to
the SW. A fairly weak area of low pressure along the gulf coast
will throw moisture into the cold air mass over the state with the
possibility of some winter weather Monday with temperatures
holding in the 30s.

Models remain widely inconsistent concerning the timing, intensity
and placement of any potential weather. Current thinking is more in
line with the ECMWF solution that would result in some snow across
the north. GFS seems a little overdone with its ZR and has been
adjusted accordingly. Regardless, POPS are only in the chance
category and QPF is not overly impressive with less than a tenth
of an inch where the coldest air will reside with up to a quarter
of an inch of QPF over the south. In addition, no significant
period of cold air will proceed this system and soil temperatures
remain in the 40s which will help mitigate impacts.

Guidance continues to point to this cold snap being short lived with
temperatures rising back into the 40s Tuesday and beyond but these
readings remain below climatological averages. Minimal rain chances
return Thursday to close out the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions persist across the state through at least this
afternoon. Widespread rain is expected to move from west to east
across the state beginning as early as 29/00z. This could lead to
some occasional low cigs and MVFR conditions through the end of
the period. S-SW winds will increase tonight into Saturday
morning, especially across portions of west/north Arkansas, gusts
above 20-25 kts are possible. Wind shear is expected across area
terminals Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     52  37  50  29 /   0  70 100  40
Camden AR         55  39  54  32 /   0  60  90  80
Harrison AR       52  37  49  23 /   0  90 100  20
Hot Springs AR    54  38  52  28 /   0  80 100  60
Little Rock   AR  54  39  52  32 /   0  70 100  60
Monticello AR     55  40  56  35 /   0  20  90  90
Mount Ida AR      56  39  54  27 /   0  90 100  50
Mountain Home AR  51  37  47  25 /   0  90 100  30
Newport AR        51  39  49  30 /   0  50 100  60
Pine Bluff AR     53  39  53  31 /   0  50  90  90
Russellville AR   56  39  52  29 /   0  80 100  30
Searcy AR         52  37  49  29 /   0  60 100  50
Stuttgart AR      52  39  51  32 /   0  40 100  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...67