Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
398 FXUS64 KLZK 071106 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 606 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 -Scattered to widespread rain chances will remain in the forecast today, particularly across the eastern half of the state. -Additional rainfall amounts today will be reserved as the bulk of the precipitation associated with this system fell Monday into Monday night. -The greatest area for measurable precipitation will be across eastern Arkansas where some locations may see an additional tenth to quarter inch of rainfall today with the highest additional amounts between a quarter inch to half inch of rainfall in a few isolated locations across eastern Arkansas and far northeastern Arkansas where the highest additional rainfall amounts are anticipated. -Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late week,in the wake of a cold front that will move across the state later today from northwest to southeast, with settled weather prevailing thereafter. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 As of 2 AM CDT, light to moderate rain continues to fall across portions of northeastern Arkansas associated with a sfc low pressure system that is positioned over the Mid-South region of the CONUS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT: An upper lvl broad, positively-tilted trof over the northern Plains region of the CONUS combined with an inverted trof of low pressure at the sfc will advect moist southerly to southeasterly flow into Arkansas. The moisture influx, combined with isentropic ascent will assist in the potential for scattered showers and storms, especially across the eastern half of Arkansas. A potential for local heavy rainfall does exist (similar to Sunday) as a modest 850 mb low-level jet develops over the Mid-South region of the CONUS. The presence of the development of this 850 mb low-level jet may lead to a few maxima or enhanced rainfall totals that near a half inch of rainfall with an outlier chance a few locations approach and/or exceed 1 inch of total rainfall today across eastern Arkansas, but confidence is low. Expect temperatures to remain above normal by 5 to 8 degrees overall as a cold front will begin to move across the state today from northwest to southeast, but the drier and cooler airmass will not be felt at the sfc until Wednesday across Arkansas. WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: The airmass behind the FROPA will be cooler and drier which will bring temperatures overall to average for this time of the year across the Natural State. The sfc high pressure center will shift into the Great Lakes region of the CONUS which will lead to northeasterly sfc winds for the middle and later portion of the work week. Expect plentiful amounts of sunshine with fair weather conditions overall. The next opportunity for precipitation does appear to be on the horizon for the state of next week; however this far out model confidence is low overall and cohesion between models does not exist at the moment. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Flight category will be observed from IFR to LIFR at most terminals due to lowered CIGS and some FG which has lowered VSBY as well which are associated with a departing surface low pressure and approaching cold front. The degradation of flight category will be noted through mid-day before CIGS lift later by the afternoon across all sites; however, late Tuesday evening CIGS will begin to lower to MVFR and IFR flight category across all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 84 59 77 50 / 20 30 0 0 Camden AR 85 65 81 56 / 20 10 0 0 Harrison AR 79 55 74 50 / 10 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 86 64 79 55 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 84 65 77 55 / 20 20 0 0 Monticello AR 85 66 81 57 / 20 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 87 63 79 54 / 10 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 83 57 76 50 / 10 10 0 0 Newport AR 84 62 76 52 / 30 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 83 64 78 55 / 20 10 0 0 Russellville AR 88 64 80 55 / 10 10 0 0 Searcy AR 84 63 77 52 / 20 20 0 0 Stuttgart AR 82 64 77 55 / 20 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74