Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
987 FXUS64 KLZK 150533 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1133 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 139 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 -Seasonably warm conditions 10-20 degrees above normal, with highs near record levels in the 70s to lower 80s Saturday -A cooling trend anticipated into early next week, but should remain above normal levels into the middle of next week -Wetter weather anticipated starting Monday, with significant accumulations probable for the middle and latter portions of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Quiet weather persists across the Natural State this morning, thanks to surface high pressure and an anomalously strong ridge that is dominating across the central portions of the country. This is resulting in mostly clear skies, with only some scattered mid- level clouds present due to some enhanced lower level moisture lingering across the region. Winds will continue to remain out of the southerly direction over the next couple of days as ridging remains over the Gulf of America. The bigger story over the next couple of days is the abnormally warm temperatures for this time of year, where several locations may see afternoon highs tomorrow reach near record levels. As the aforementioned ridging begins to weaken, expect cooling conditions heading into next week, as a shortwave from a strong Pacific troughing feature eventually ejects east of the Rockies going into early next week. The initial wave will increase rain chances Monday into Tuesday, although moisture profiles would suggest not overly robust accumulations with this initial system. As the amplified trough across western CONUS shifts eastward going into the middle of the week, better dynamics and moisture return from the Gulf will be more robust. This will result in much more favorable shower and thunderstorm conditions across the state starting Wednesday and extending through the rest of the week as multiple shortwaves eject downstream of the longwave trough. Much better agreement amongst the ensemble and deterministic output makes this outlook a sure thing, just some differences in onset and timing of heavier rain periods. While the initial rainfall would be beneficial across the state, a look at NBM QPF amounts would suggest widespread storm totals exceeding 1-2", with a reasonable worst case (90th percentile) of 4-8" Wednesday through Friday. As we draw closer in time, gathering more details about timing and trends of rain amounts will be monitored, as well as severe potential. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Lowered CIGs are expected between 06z-15z associated with an expanding stratus deck along and adjacent to the I30/I57 corridors. General trend over the last couple hrs has been subtle shift in stratus towards the E. Winds overnight should be around 5 kts from the S. Winds/wind gusts on Sat will increase out of the SW between 15-25kts. FEW to SCT mid/high clouds are possible on Sat but VFR conds will prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 60 79 54 71 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 58 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 60 79 50 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 59 79 58 75 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 60 79 59 73 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 60 79 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 60 81 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 58 80 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 60 79 57 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 60 80 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 59 82 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 57 79 56 72 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 60 79 59 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...70