834
FXUS64 KMAF 242236
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
436 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 436 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Drier weather and mild temperatures continue early this week.

- A cold front will move into the area Tuesday night and will
  bring near to below average temperatures on Wednesday.

- Pleasant conditions and mild temperatures are expected
  Thanksgiving Day through Saturday before cooler temperatures
  return late this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Current observations and satellite imagery shows the Pacific front
across the Concho Valley moving into the Hill Country. Increased
winds behind the front will make for a breezy afternoon for portions
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Sustained winds are expected
to be 15-20 mph during the afternoon over the plains, while stronger
winds are going to occur in the higher terrain (25-35 mph). Winds
significantly decrease late this afternoon into early evening. High
temperatures are forecast to range in the mid 60s to mid 70s for
most locations with the exception of a few spots in the higher
terrain struggling to reach the 60s this afternoon. Lows tonight
reach the mid 30s to mid 40s regionwide.

A calm and pleasant day is in store on Tuesday as the upper-level
storm system that brought us storms Sunday and breezy winds today
moves northeast of the region. Quasi zonal flow takes shape aloft
which will keep temperatures above normal (highs in the mid 60s to
mid 70s) for this time of year. Guidance has a surface low pressure
system moving across the Northern Plains which is going to send a
strong cold front to the region Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning. Cooler air arrives on Wednesday; more details on that in
the long-term discussion!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico Wednesday into the first half of Thanksgiving
Day before weak ridging aloft builds over the area Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. Surface high pressure will settle
over the Red River Valley on Wednesday behind the strong cold
front that pushes through our region late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. High temperatures will trend cooler in the
upper 50s to mid 60s across the region, except lower 70s along the
Rio Grande. Highs on Thanksgiving Day will trend slightly warmer
in the 60s to around 70 degrees over the area except for mid to
upper 70s in the southern Big Bend/along the Rio Grande.

The mid-level flow pattern looks to transition more zonal by
Friday. A weak shortwave embedded within this flow may bring an
increase in cloud cover though precipitation chances currently
look to be very low with this system. Zonal flow continues through
Saturday before the mid-level flow transitions southwesterly late
this weekend in advance of the next trough digging over the
western CONUS. Increasing moisture with this system may bring a
low (10-20 percent) chance of rain showers late Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Highs in the 60s and 70s Friday and Saturday
trend cooler in the 50s and 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 436 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR prevails through the period with light west winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               40  72  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 38  70  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   45  77  47  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            44  73  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           39  60  37  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    37  68  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    30  68  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     42  72  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   42  71  40  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     38  71  39  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...29