700
FXUS64 KMAF 191751
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1151 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1127 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Isolated severe storms this afternoon and evening across the
  eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with large hail
  being the main threat.

- Strong winds over Guadalupe Mountains Thursday afternoon into
  Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

An active weather pattern is among us following a very warm and dry
30 day period. An upper trough to our west will provide our next
shot for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Southwesterly flow aloft will increase today as the trough begins to
move east. This flow regime will induce leeside surface troughing
helping to draw deep Gulf moisture (dewpts >60F) west across the
area. By late afternoon, an increasing low level jet along with
modest upper level support should allow for isolated convection to
develop, mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. Hi-
res models help support this idea with development generally
after 4 PM CST. Steep mid level lapse rates along with modest deep
layer shear will support isolated multicell/supercell structures
with large hail being the main threat. The big question will be
instability as we expect a rather extensive mid and upper cloud
deck due to the deep fetch of moisture off the Pacific. While
temperatures will remain above normal, we will cool several
degrees from previous days due to the clouds.

The chance of rain remains high (60%) into tonight as mid and
upper level lift further increases with the approach of the upper
trough. Another round of storms appears likely to develop after
midnight across much of the area. While the severe threat lowers
somewhat due to the loss of daytime heating, high PWATs (>1") and
training storms could lead to isolated areas of flash flooding.

Shower and thunderstorm chances peak (>80%) Thursday as the upper
trough lifts and deamplifies over the region. Another round of
storms is expected to develop and focus along an advancing Pacific
front that will sweep across the area during the day. While
moisture values remain high, storms will be fast-moving helping to
limit the threat for flash flooding. Strong to severe storms are
still possible Thursday, but weakening upper level support should
help negate the threat. Expect high temperatures a few degrees
cooler once again, especially across the higher terrain where the
front will move through earlier in the day. Gusty west winds will
follow the passage of the front with gusts >50 mph likely across
the Guadalupe Mountains Thursday afternoon into the evening. Will
continue to monitor for possible high wind products.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The extended remains active as another storm system is set to affect
the region later this weekend. Before that occurs, we are looking at
a beautiful Friday as high pressure settles in helping to clear
skies. With a Pacific airmass behind the front, high temperatures
will still climb into the 60s and 70s for most locations outside of
the mountains (50s).

Attention quickly turns to the west to another upper trough diving
south over Baja early Saturday. Southwesterly flow will increase
overhead once again helping to draw Gulf moisture back west over
the area. This system will arrive Sunday into Monday bringing our
next best chance of widespread showers and storms. Many of the
details still have to be ironed out with this system so more on it
once we get trough this week`s storm. Temperatures will remain
above normal through the duration of this forecast cycle as any
really cold air stays well to our north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A cloud deck is still prevalent over many terminals with the
lowest CIGs being MVFR at MAF. Ceilings are expected to lift above
3000ft, along with BR ceasing by 18/19Z timeframe. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through the
rest of the period. TS PROB30 was implemented at HOB given low
(30-40%) confidence for thunderstorm development to occur tonight
into early tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  60  71  45 /  30  70  80  30
Carlsbad                 74  52  69  43 /   0  50  80   0
Dryden                   80  63  76  50 /  20  50  70  10
Fort Stockton            77  63  77  46 /  10  40  60  10
Guadalupe Pass           63  48  58  39 /  10  40  70   0
Hobbs                    74  53  67  40 /   0  60  90  10
Marfa                    71  48  68  34 /  10  10  50   0
Midland Intl Airport     75  61  71  45 /  10  60  90  10
Odessa                   74  61  70  45 /  10  60  80  10
Wink                     75  58  70  42 /  10  50  80  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...11