667
FXUS64 KMAF 251931
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
131 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

- A cold front moves in tonight, bringing near to below average temperatures
  on Wednesday.

- Mild temperatures are expected Thanksgiving Day through
  Saturday, with low (10-30%) rain chances Friday afternoon.

- A stronger front yields colder temperatures by Sunday through at
  least the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Quiet and warm weather is ongoing for West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico this afternoon. Highs this afternoon are going to top out in
the upper 60s and low 70s under clear skies (this is about 7-11
degrees above normal for this time of year). However, an upper-level
trough is visible on water vapor imagery moving across the Northern
Plains. This system sends a front down into our area this
evening/overnight. Breezy northeasterly winds filter in cooler air,
knocking lows down a couple of degrees relative to this morning`s,
particularly in the northern Permian Basin (upper 30s and low 40s
for most of the area, upper 20s and low 30s for the northern Basin).
Temperatures tomorrow will likewise be cooler in the wake up
tonight`s front. Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s can be expected
for most locations (70s persist along the Rio Grande). Winds once
again become southerly tomorrow evening as ridging starts to build
in from the west and the post-frontal surface highs moves east. Lows
tomorrow night look similar to tonight`s, albeit a degree or two
warmer.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The Long Term portion of this forecast gets a bit more interesting.
Thanksgiving Day looks rather pleasant overall as weak ridging moves
overhead. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s can be expected
areawide (about 4-7 degrees above normal). A shortwave swinging down
from the Northwestern CONUS quickly flattens the ridge and ejects
down towards our region. A surface low in the lee of the Rockies
will yield gusty southerly winds Friday ahead of this system, which
in turn will bring some moisture northward into the eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos. As a result, low (10-30%) shower and
thunderstorm chances are maintained for Friday afternoon in these
areas (no severe weather expected this time around due to limited
instability). Highs similar to Thursday`s can be expected for the
western half of our region, whereas the eastern half will drop to
near-normal thanks to increased moisture and persistent cloud cover.

By Saturday night, a much stronger front enters the area. Lows
Sunday morning dip near or below freezing for most locations, save
for our far southern zones (and temperatures are still slowly
trending downward). Highs top out in the upper 40s and low 50s (with
higher temperatures once again in far southern zones/along the Rio
Grande). Another trough dives south by the beginning of the week,
yielding another shot at some cold rain Monday and Tuesday (10-25%).
It should be noted, however, that ensemble guidance continues to
convey quite a bit of uncertainty in these chances (a number of
members show precipitation, but many others do not). In fact, PoPs
trended down from the previous run of the NBM. In any case, we are
going to keep a close eye on how these precipitation chances
continue to trend, as well as system timing and what temperature
profiles may look like out ahead of the system. Stay tuned for
updates!

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Somewhat breezy northwesterly winds with
occasional gusts can be expected at most sites this afternoon. A
front moves in this evening (roughly between 23-05Z), yielding
breezier northeasterly winds. These winds begin to subside by
tomorrow morning through remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               39  59  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 39  59  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   47  64  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            42  62  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           38  54  41  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    33  56  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    32  62  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     40  59  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   40  59  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     40  59  36  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13