873
FXUS64 KMAF 190444
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1144 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

- Temperatures continue to warm up today and through the weekend
  as upper-level ridging builds.

- Low (10-30%) rain chances continue west of the Pecos River this
  afternoon, especially in and near the Davis Mountains.

- Near normal temperatures and low to medium (10-60%) rain
  chances are on the horizon next week. Rain chances look to
  remain mostly west of the Pecos River each afternoon, with best
  chances over and near the Davis Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level ridge extending from the
Arizona/New Mexico border to the east coast. This increase in
thickness will allow for temperatures to be a few degrees warmer
than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 90s for most (80s in
higher terrain). The surface trough axis previously mentioned has
backed off to the west, keeping rain chances (10-30%) well west of
the Pecos River this afternoon as southeasterly upslope flow and
sufficient surface heating continues. The primary threats with any
storms that develop are gusty winds, small hail, brief heavy
downpours, and lightning. Mixing will occur again tonight due to a
LLJ and mid to high level clouds should limit radiational cooling.
Expect overnight lows to be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most.

Thicknesses increase Saturday as ridging continues to build in from
the southeastern CONUS. As such, afternoon highs are forecast to be
a couple of degrees warmer at many locations. Some spots in the
Trans Pecos and southwestern Permian Basin will be at or near the
century mark. Showers and storms are not expected anywhere Saturday
and Saturday night lows are expected to be the same as tonight.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The upper-level ridge builds overhead even further, adding another
degree or two to Sunday`s afternoon highs. Expect highs to climb
into the upper 90s for most. Portions of the Trans Pecos, Big Bend,
and southwestern Permian Basin are forecast to top out in the low
triple digits. Shower/storm chances (10-30%) increase a little
Sunday, with the best chances over the higher terrain once again.
The upper-level ridge weakens as it shifts eastward Monday, allowing
for afternoon highs to drop just a tad from Sunday`s. A surface low
sets up over southeast New Mexico and west Texas with its trough
axis extending south through our western counties. This increases
shower and storm chances (20-60%) over the western high terrain. The
highest chances are forecast to be over the Davis Mountains. Highs
are expected to remain in the mid to upper 90s for many Tuesday
through Thursday with the exception of the higher terrain (mid to
upper 80s) and southeast New Mexico (low 90s). The aforementioned
surface low hangs around midweek and plentiful moisture keep low to
medium chances of rain (20-60%) west of the Pecos River. The
greatest chances remain in the Davis Mountains (40-60%). Overnight
lows stay in the 70s for most every night in the extended.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 95  72  98  72 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   98  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            96  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  69  90  70 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                    93  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    88  63  90  66 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     98  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   95  72  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     96  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99