565
FXUS64 KMAF 230842
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing quarter
  size hail, strong wind, and brief heavy rainfall will be
  possible over the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Big Bend
  region this afternoon and evening.

- A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures
  to the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today and into Monday afternoon, an upper-level ridging gives way to
an upper-low making its way from the Desert Southwest into the
central Great Plains. This system sets the stage for stormy weather
today through Monday evening. Lift and deep-layer shear increases
ahead of the approaching trough this morning. Meanwhile, an area of
surface high pressure is currently centered over northeastern
Oklahoma, steering Gulf moisture out of the southeast toward our
direction. Rain chances today range between 10-80%. Those west of
the Pecos River will have the lowest odds, at 10-40%. Areas east of
the Pecos will see rain chances between 40-80%, with the best odds
over the northeastern Permian Basin this afternoon. Provided
sufficient instability and shear, a couple of storms may be strong
to severe within the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this
afternoon. The primary threats with any severe storms that develop
will be large hail (greatest threat), gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall leading to flash flooding. Highs today are forecast to
reach into the 60s over most of southeast New Mexico, the Permian
Basin, and the higher terrain, with 70s expected elsewhere.

Later this afternoon and into the evening, rain chances gradually
taper off from west to east, as the storm system`s jet max begins to
depart to our northeast. The eastern half of the region will see
rain chances between 20-70% this evening, with the highest chances
over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Shower/storm
activity looks to clear out of our area by Monday morning as a Pac
front sweeps across the CWA. Southwesterly and westerly winds become
moderately strong over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains this
afternoon through Monday afternoon due to both the upper-level
trough and the Pac front passing through. However, winds look to
remain below High Wind criteria. Otherwise, temperatures tonight
will settle into the lower 40s to mid 50s. Highs Monday afternoon
are expected to range between the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The upper low that will have brought a smattering of rainfall to
portions of the CWA will move off to the northeast by Tuesday
morning. Drier air from a Pacific front will bring rain chances to
zero and a cold front moving through on Wednesday will bring near to
below normal temperatures. Thanksgiving continues to look like a
fairly typical fall day in West Texas. Near normal temperatures in
the 60s with lows in the 40s that evening. Another upper low begins
to make its way towards the region out of the Desert Southwest by
Friday, but it remains to be seen if ample moisture will be
accompanied by this disturbance. Rain chances remain low (<10%)
into next weekend to end November and begin December.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next several hours.
However, increasing low-level moisture will bring the likelihood of
MVFR (and potentially brief IFR) ceilings around sunrise Sunday
morning and into the early afternoon. MAF could even see at least
MVFR ceilings all day, including Sunday evening. Timing of the MVFR
ceilings remains relatively unchanged (between 12Z and ending around
21Z) since last TAF issuance. Isolated to scattered SHRA and
potentially even TSRA could develop this morning, but the best
chances will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Have PROB30s
-TSRA for sites where confidence is lower. Otherwise, have included
-TSRA prevailing. We will continue to monitor trends and make
updates to 12Z TAFs as needed.

Greening

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  50  71  41 /  70  40   0   0
Carlsbad                 71  43  70  38 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   70  57  80  47 /  40  40   0   0
Fort Stockton            77  51  73  45 /  40  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  40  58  40 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    66  40  66  38 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                    71  37  64  31 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     65  49  70  43 /  60  30   0   0
Odessa                   66  49  69  43 /  60  30   0   0
Wink                     71  45  71  38 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...95