150
FXUS64 KMAF 281732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1132 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1131 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Breezy winds today, especially in the Permian Basin. Low (10-20%)
  rain chances for these same areas.

- Strong cold front to bring gap winds to the Guadalupe Mountains
  and much below normal temperatures along with a first freeze to
  many Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Southerly winds have returned along with Gulf moisture as evidenced
by dewpoints in the 40s. A weak shortwave moving across the Plains
will induce leeside surface troughing across the S. Plains. This
will lead to windy conditions today, especially across the Permian
Basin where gusts could reach 30 mph. Rain chances have decreased,
but a few very light showers are possible across the Lower Trans
Pecos through the day. Nevertheless, thick cloud cover will limit
high temperatures from warming much above 60 degrees for many
locations. Further west where less cloud cover will exist,
temperatures will climb to near 70. Expect mild temperatures in the
50s tonight across the eastern half of the region due to cloud cover
sticking around, while low drop into the 30s/40s out west.

Saturday will be a big transition day with our strongest cold front
of the season on deck. Ahead of this front, low level moisture could
lead to areas of fog in the morning before a prefrontal trough veers
wind to the northwest sweeping moisture east. Clearing skies along
with compressional warming ahead of the front will boost high
temperatures into the 70s for most locations. The strong cold front
arrives quickly after peak heating with the boundary reaching the I-
20 corridor by mid afternoon and then the Rio Grande by midnight.
Gusty northeast winds are expected behind the front, especially
across the Guadalupe Mountains where gap winds will develop. Have
gone ahead with a High Wind Watch with gusts up to 65 mph expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1254 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Temperatures drop quickly behind the front with lows near freezing
for many locations outside of the Rio Grande by Sunday morning. Will
be monitoring for possible Freeze products for locations that have
not had a freeze yet this season. Westerly flow aloft will help keep
clouds in place Sunday and combined with northerly winds will make
it fell pretty chilly. Highs are likely to top out in the 40s, but
winds will make it feel much colder. Our coldest night of the season
so far is expected Monday morning with lows in the 20s/30s.

Another quick moving shortwave moves across the Plains Monday
dragging another cold front through the region. This will keep cooler
conditions (temperatures near normal) in place through midweek. We
briefly warm Wednesday before another front arrives later in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR expected for most sites this afternoon, with the exception of
MAF, who has been MVFR (and occasionally IFR) most of the morning.
Guidance indicates VFR conditions may return to MAF briefly this
afternoon before CIGs quickly deteriorate to IFR again tonight. Fog
is also possible at MAF tonight, as well as HOB (confidence was
lower there, however, so VFR conditions were maintained in the TAF).
Southerly/southeasterly winds remain breezy this afternoon,
especially at HOB, FST, and MAF (where gusts from 25-30 kts, up to
35 kts, are expected to continue). Winds gradually decline
overnight, becoming more southwesterly by tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  53  73  29 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72  44  73  30 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   64  53  78  37 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            72  51  76  33 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  45  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    66  42  71  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    67  37  69  24 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     62  51  74  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   63  51  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     70  43  74  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...13