


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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684 FXUS64 KMAF 170754 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 221 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Low (10-20%) rain chances this evening from the Presidio Valley into the Trans Pecos region and far southeast New Mexico. - A cold front arrives late Saturday, bringing near normal temperatures to the area Sunday. - Brief warmup Monday before another cold front brings Fall-like temperatures into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Current radar this morning shows some lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Big Bend. Hi-res models have not handled this well, but it appears that convection should be ending very shortly. The remainder of today should be dry everywhere with temperatures heating up well above normal. An upper trough moving into New Mexico will push a surface trough into the central Permian Basin this afternoon. Convergence along the trough could help convection develop this evening generally along and south of the I-20 corridor. Anything that develops should quickly move off to the east so rain chances will be fairly brief and thus rainfall amounts are not likely to be very high. A couple of storms could become strong but no severe storms are expected. Saturday will be dry with above normal temperatures once again. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The upper trough moves into West Texas on Saturday dropping a cold front south Saturday night. Sunday morning will finally feel like fall with widespread lows in the 50s and even some 40s in the northern basin, southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains. This should be the coldest morning of the season so far and as cool as it will feel will only be around normal for this time of year. Sunday could be one of the nicest days of the year as highs only reach the upper 70s to low 80s accompanying a light northeast wind. Enjoy the cool temps because a very quick rebound is expected Monday as highs jump right back up into the 90s. The extended period is going to see some rapid temperature fluctuations due to a series of systems moving across the United States. Therefore right after a warm Monday, a trough moving across the northern U.S. sends another cold front through on Tuesday and more cooler weather. The pattern may repeat again on Friday. The upper support for all of the cold fronts is expected to stay far enough away from the area that the extended forecast is dry. Hennig && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Isolated to scattered TSRA will continue over the Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and potentially into parts of the Upper Trans Pecos region for the next couple of hours, but confidence was too low to include mention in the KPEQ TAF. VFR otherwise prevails through the period. Southeasterly to southerly winds are expected to shift more southwesterly to westerly late tonight and into the day Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 89 63 86 53 / 10 40 10 0 Carlsbad 85 57 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 90 65 93 59 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 89 64 87 54 / 10 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 53 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 85 56 81 48 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 82 53 78 47 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 89 64 86 53 / 0 30 0 0 Odessa 87 64 85 54 / 0 20 0 0 Wink 88 59 86 51 / 0 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...21