Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
182 FXUS64 KMEG 022346 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 546 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 - Widespread fog and areas of frost are expected to develop late tonight into Monday morning, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s. - A warming trend will follow, with high temperatures returning to the low to mid 70s by late week. - Successive cold fronts will bring periods of rain, first on Friday and again late in the weekend; no severe weather is expected. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Water vapor imagery reveals a deep upper low pressure system over the Tennessee River Valley. Lingering low-level stratus persists over portions of west Tennessee, but is slowly thinning out. Temperatures are mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s with a weak northerly wind at the surface. Below normal temperatures will persist through Monday as cool surface high pressure remains in place. Fog and frost are anticipated Monday morning as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s. Upper level flow will remain zonal through midweek and become slightly amplified by week`s end. Temperatures will gradually warm each day and peak in the low to mid 70s by late week. A mid level trough and surface cold front will move into the middle Mississippi Valley late Thursday and move into the Mid- South on Friday. Return flow ahead of the front will be modest across the region, with dewpoints peaking in the mid to upper 50s. LREF guidance shows limited (20-30%) overlap of key ingredients MUCAPE > 500 J/kg, MUCIN < 25 J/kg, and bulk shear > 30 knots. This indicates a disorganized storm mode with a limited severe threat. We will continue to monitor how these parameters evolve as mesoscale details become clearer. A broader and deeper trough will drop down across the Central Plains on Saturday. A surface low will pivot across the Great Lakes Region and drag another cold front across the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Ensemble guidance again shows poor overlap (10-20%) for severe weather ingredients. The airmass recovery will be limited by the previous day`s frontal passage. Nonetheless, the front will bring another shot of rainfall and cooler temperatures to the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Primary concern remains radiational fog potential overnight. 22Z NBM, 12Z HREF and 22Z HRRR depict LIFR VIS over much of the area, mainly along and east of the MS River. Confidence is fairly high regarding LIFR VIS potential at MKL and TUP after 06Z. For MEM, the aforementioned guidance showed good agreement in the depiction of LIFR VIS over Shelby County, outside of the Memphis urban core. With potential LIFR VIS in the MEM vicinity, have opted to carry a TEMPO for BCFG in the MEM TAF overnight. Given warm water temperatures of the MS River and NW MS lakes, wouldn`t be surprised if some stratus over these bodies of water edges over the field, aided by light SW flow off the deck. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Below normal temperatures will persist through Monday with a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. Minimum relative humidity values will range between 40 to 50 percent through much of next week as temperatures rebound back into the 70s. A pair of cold fronts will move through the Mid-South Friday and then again this weekend, bringing wetting rain back to the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...PWB