Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
841 FXUS64 KMEG 271820 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1220 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 - Chilly weather will continue as below-normal temperatures persist over the next seven days. - Rain will return to the Mid-South Saturday through early Sunday morning. We could see a few snowflakes, mainly north of I-40, Saturday morning though impacts are not expected. - Significant uncertainty exists regarding a low-pressure system next Monday and into Tuesday morning that could bring heavy rain or a mixed precipitation regime to the region. Stay tuned for updated forecasts in the coming days. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 A brisk and sunny start to our Thanksgiving day here in the Mid- South as current temperatures are in the mid 40s to lower 50s with northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph at the surface. As surface high pressure and zonal flow aloft remain over the region over the next 36 hours or so, benign weather will prevail. Below normal temperatures will remain with at or below freezing temperatures Friday morning, aided by zonal flow aloft. Come late Friday into early Saturday, a weather pattern shift will occur as a deepening surface low emerges from the Central Plains region. Ample moisture and warm air advection will push in from the Gulf, increasing forecast PWATs to around 1.2", nearing the 80th percentile for this time of the year. Showers will be the main story through much of Saturday as the aforementioned surface low pushes into the Upper Mississippi Valley region with an attendant cold front pushing across the Mid-South. Ahead of widespread showers there will be a small window Saturday morning when temperatures will be at or below freezing, mainly north of I-40. However, there are a few caveats with a wintry mix. Precipitation may not begin early enough when temperatures are below freezing, leading to no wintry precipitation and just rain. The NBM has around a 30-40% chance for a light dusting of snow mainly along the Tennessee and Kentucky border. Either way, impacts are not expected Saturday morning. Post-frontal showers will linger into Sunday morning, mainly along and south of I-40. By Sunday afternoon, upper-level zonal flow and cold surface high pressure will quickly move in and settle over the region, diminishing rain chances for much of Sunday. Behind the aforementioned front, Monday morning will be a cold one as much of the Mid-South will see low temperatures in the 20s with wind chills in the teens and lower 20s. Forecast uncertainty begins to increase largely Monday as two systems begin to influence the weather over the Mid-South: 1) a Gulf surface low and 2) an upper-level trough pushing in from the Rockies. Depending on where the Gulf low sets up, we could see more of a freezing rain event where temperatures may not make it above freezing, mainly along and west of the Mississippi River. However, the aforementioned trough could pinch the moisture in this region and therefore push precipitation more southeast where temperatures will likely be above freezing Monday. Monday night and into Tuesday morning, temperatures will fall at or below freezing as precipitation lingers. Depending on which model you look at, the trough could push precipitation past our area in time for us to see only rainfall and no wintry precipitation. However, some ensembles do have freezing rain and maybe even some snowfall Monday night and into Tuesday morning. We are a little too far out to pinpoint forecast soundings, however we will still be above freezing aloft leading to the predominate precipitation type likely not being snowfall. Bottom line, this is a very tricky forecast. Stay tuned... AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR conditions continue. NW winds between 5 to 10 kts will become light overnight, shifting to E/SE near the end of the current TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain at a minimum through the forecast period. Relative humidity values will remain largely above 50 percent across the area with light winds. Wetting rain chances return Saturday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...CMA