562
FXUS62 KMFL 071657
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1157 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

 - Best chances for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this
   afternoon, then very low chances for the rest of the week.

 - Cooler and drier conditions early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

No big changes to the current forecast as we end the week and
enter the weekend. As mentioned overnight, a weak shortwave trough
will push through today. This may provide enough lift to produce a
few showers and storms today, but no major impacts are expected.
Entering the weekend, surface high pressure over the Atlantic
expanding will create a weak flow setup and low chances for
showers. Afternoon high temperatures today expected in the mid to
upper 80s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

NBM and ensembles show a fairly active weather spreading across the
SE CONUS as a deep trough/frontal complex push E/SE today.
Meanwhile, a mid-level trough will migrate eastward across Florida,
while the sfc ridge over the area is being pushed further eastward
by the frontal system to the north. This will veer low-lvl winds
across SoFlo to a more southerly flow and bring moisture advection
throughout the day.

Model soundings push PWATs to near 2 inches this afternoon, while
the influence of the weak trough aloft might provide enough lifting
to support a few strong thunderstorms, despite of rather modest CAPE
values. Onshore showers are possible during the morning hours,
mainly around east coast metro areas. POPs remain in the 30-40
percent range, so, even with the increasing moisture, a wide-spread
rainy day is not expected.

For Saturday, ridging over the Atlantic will again expand into the
area and relax pressure gradients across SoFlo. Drier air filters
into the area, while winds become generally light at the sfc.
Meanwhile, zonal flow establishes aloft and PWATs drop to near one
inch. This will drop POPs into single digits with benign weather
prevailing.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side today with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 80s, and upper 80s to around 90 on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Models depict drier air aloft lingering over the region on Sunday,
with mainly light SSW winds. Latest NBM and global solutions have
dropped POPs even further with basically single digits in the
forecast each day.

Model consensus has improved a little regarding a dry frontal
boundary moving across the state early next week. And regardless
of the final outcome of the complex synoptic scenario for the E
CONUS, there is no significant impact weather-wise associated
with this FROPA, except for lowering temperatures a bit.

Coldest temps seem to arrive Monday night and through Tuesday with
the persisting northerly flow. Overnight lows may drop into the low-
mid 40s around the Lake region, and upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.
Afternoon highs Tuesday afternoon should remain in the mid-upper 60s
around the Lake region and upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. The air
mass gradually moderates through the end of the work week with
afternoon highs back in the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday. This
timing is highly dependent on how the overall synoptic scenario
evolves, so some adjustments to the forecast time line might be
required based on upcoming model runs.

All in all, the weather pattern early next week should offer the
first benefit taste of the upcoming winter season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Winds are expected to be out of an east to southeast direction
today with the exception of westerly winds at KAPF. Expecting
winds to be around 5-10 kts at most. There will be the chance for
a few showers this afternoon, but any impacts should be minor.
Winds become light overnight through tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

East-south winds around 5-10 knots continue today, then gradually
shifting southerly late this weekend ahead of an approaching
front. Hazardous marine conditions are expected to quickly develop
in the wake of the frontal passage early next week over most of
South Florida`s coastal waters. High-end Advisory conditions are
possible as early as Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  87  74  87 /  20  10   0  10
West Kendall     69  88  70  88 /  20  10   0  10
Opa-Locka        72  88  73  88 /  20  10   0  10
Homestead        71  86  72  86 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  86  73  85 /  20  10   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  72  87  73  87 /  20  10   0  10
Pembroke Pines   72  89  74  89 /  20  10   0  10
West Palm Beach  71  87  72  87 /  20  10   0  10
Boca Raton       71  88  72  88 /  20   0   0  10
Naples           71  86  71  85 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Redman